Masters Degrees (Economics)

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Public transport infrastructure spending and provincial economic growth in South Africa: a panel auto-regressive distributed lag approach.
(2025) Xaba, Nqobile.; Sangweni, Sinethemba Doctor.
This study investigates the relationship between public transport infrastructure spending and provincial economic growth in South Africa using the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework. Set against the backdrop of South Africa’s persistent regional economic disparities and infrastructure gaps, the research explores how transport infrastructure investments impact growth across the country’s nine provinces, each marked by distinct economic structures and historical contexts. Literature examined infrastructure impacts at the national level, this research addresses a critical gap by focusing on provincial-level dynamics in the post-apartheid era. The study employs panel data from 2008 to 2023, covering public transport infrastructure spending obtained from national allocations, provincial budgets, and state-owned enterprise investments. It examines both the direction of causality and the short and long-run relationships between infrastructure investment and economic growth. The analysis adopts a panel ARDL methodology to account for cross-sectional dependence, non-stationarity, and regional heterogeneity. The study further draws on evaluating the channels through which infrastructure impacts emerge; namely, production function effects, endogenous growth mechanisms, spatial economic shifts, network externalities, and reductions in transaction costs. Findings reveal that transport infrastructure investment produces varying economic returns across provinces, highlighting the differentiated impact of infrastructure depending on local conditions. These results provide important empirical insights for improving infrastructure allocation in a resource-constrained environment and contribute to the broader goal of addressing historical spatial inequalities and promoting inclusive, provincial balanced economic development.
International trade, technology and labour share: a BRICS analysis.
(2024) Mtshali , Sinenhlanhla.; Kohler , Marcel Rene Anton Robert.
This research paper comprehensively analyses the complexities of international trade and technology adoption related to labour share within the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). As these diverse countries have experienced rapid trade expansion in recent decades, this study's primary question is: How does international trade and technological innovation impact the labour share of income in the BRICS countries) from 1991 to 2022? Despite the trade growth, the BRICS countries face challenges with labour share dynamics, income inequality, and high unemployment rates. The relationship between trade openness, technology innovations, and labour share in these emerging economies may show different trends than in developed countries. While trade has risen, it has not translated into equitable growth in labour income share. The random effects regression and the generalised methods of moments estimation results for 1991 - 2022 analyse labour share dynamics in BRICS countries. Trade liberalisation and technological innovations show minimal impact on labour share across the random effects models and generalised methods moments estimations, highlighting the importance of other variables, such as labour policies and skills development, to address income distribution related to labour share. These findings underwrite an understanding of how global economic factors shape income distribution in the BRICS countries. The study aligns with discussions in the Ricardian, Heckscher-Ohlin-Stolper-Samuelson theorem, which forecasts that shifts in factor demands and income distribution will increase trade and technological change.
The relationship between tertiary education and employment in South Africa.
(2025) Njilo , Sbusiso Blessing.; McKenzie , Tamlyn Candyce.; Vermaak , Claire Lauren.
Fundamentally, Human Capital Skills and Infrastructural Development are expected to enhance industrial Sector Growth in Sub-Saharan African economies. However, evidence from the literature observed a paradox that requires further investigation. Consequently, this study examined factors determining industrial output growth in Sub-Saharan African Economies. The study investigated the comparative effects of human capital skills and infrastructural development on industrial output growth across four sub-regional economic blocs in 40 SSA countries between 1990 and 2022. Also, the study examined asymmetric and threshold effects of human capital skill and infrastructure on industrial output growth across the sub-regional economic blocs in SSA. The study hypothesised that (i) certain factors impact industrial output growth, (ii) human capital skills and infrastructural techs had comparative effects and significant effects on industrial output growth, (iii) there were asymmetric and threshold effects of human capital skills and infrastructural development on industrial output growth across subregional economic blocs in SSA. A panel data analysis via trend, matrix correlation estimating techniques, and short-run and long-run dynamic systems from generalised methods of the moment (GMM) were adopted to achieve objective one. Trend analysis, Sub-sample analysis, Fixed Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV) and short-run and long-run dynamic system GMM were adopted to achieve objective two. To achieve objective three, panel threshold regression and Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lags (NARDL) techniques were used. The outcomes from objective one showed that key measurement variables had short-run and long-run dynamic effects on industrial output growth in SSA. This implies that industrial output growth is pathdependent, indicating that the current level of a country's output growth strongly influences its future output growth. For example, factors like school enrolment rate, ICT, and average year of schooling were negative and statistically significant in impacting growth. Consequently, the study recommended that authorities in SSA enact policies that would drive human capital skills and infrastructure development across the region. It was also suggested that individual sub-regions such as ECA, ECCAS, ECOWAS and SADC should draft subregional policy support unique to their sub-region to address specific and perennial problems militating against industrial output growth.
The link between health and happiness in South Africa: a gender comparison.
(2024) Myende, Bongeka promise.; Dobreva, Ralitza Vassileva.
Given the government's objective of increasing South Africans' quality of life (Camfield & Skevington, 2008; Street 2023), there is scope and clear motivation to establish the factors that contribute to well-being on a wider scale than the focus on income levels (Camfield & Skevington, 2008). It is important to analyse the relationship between health and life satisfaction not in isolation but as a part of a broader context of how it is impacted by other variables including the individuals’ context, reflected in measures of social capital, such as crime and theft in the neighbourhood. This enables us to have an in-depth understanding of health dynamics and how to improve the quality of life for South Africans, which will, in turn, contribute towards encompassing health sector policies. When economists draw out instructive models on how healthcare should be improved, life satisfaction is included as one of the variables affecting health. Therefore, paying attention to subjective well-being as one of the variables affecting health should take centre stage. The nationally representative panel data used in this study was taken from the five waves of the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS). Individuals’ self-rated health is the dependent variable, while happiness is reflected on a ten-scale of overall life satisfaction. Since the dependent variable health is ordinal in nature, the model used is the ordered logit model. This dissertation addresses the endogeneity problem caused by individual heterogeneity using a fixed effects model. Based on the results, the link between life satisfaction and health appears stronger for men. Looking at the relationship between social capital and health, it is expected that those who prefer to stay in the neighbourhood to report excellent health compared to those who prefer to leave the neighbourhood but in this case those who prefer to leave reported higher excellent health compared to those who prefer to stay for both men and women. The social capital variables were also used as the indirect channel, through which life satisfaction affects health. The results imply that life satisfaction works through religious practice to influence men’s health more than women’s. The link between life satisfaction and health is stronger for men, while social capital influences health outcomes differently by gender.
Unpaid care work: calculating its value to the South African economy.
(2025) Nkwanyana, Nokukholwa Ruth.; Dobreva, Ralitza Vassileva.; Bruce-Brand, Janet Oriel.
All households partake in unpaid care work (UPCW) of varying degrees. This work falls outside of the production possibilities frontier because there is no payment for the products made or services rendered within the unpaid care work category of time use. Systematically does not get accounted in the UN System of National Accounts framework, and therefore, not included in the computation of the GDP index. Consequently, this sector is invisible thereby making it hard for governments to develop and implement policies to support those who engage in it most. This study investigates how unpaid care work contributes to the South African economy. A quantitative approach using a non-experimental research strategy is used to estimate the imputed value of the unpaid care work as a share of GDP without attempting to determine possible causality or correlation between the variables. First, aggregate annual time use for UPCW activity is calculated. Then, the market equivalent wage is estimated for each of the respective UPCW activities. Then, obtaining a product of these produces the imputed value. The imputed value is measured against the GDP figures to estimate unpaid care work’s potential share to GDP. Three datasets: the 2010 Time Use Survey (TUS), the 2010 Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) and the 2010 Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (QGDP) data are used. The TUS produces the time estimates measuring how much time is spent on paid and unpaid work activities and the QLFS is used to estimate the market-related wages payable for activities of paid work similar to unpaid work. Lastly, the QGDP data is used to compare the contribution of unpaid care work to the South African gross domestic product (GDP). The results of four valuation methods inform that unpaid care work contributed 36.83% using the Economy Wide Mean Wage, 3.87% for Men and 6.89% for Women using the Opportunity Cost method, 25.82% using the Generalist and 26.47% using the Specialist wage methods to the South African real GDP of 2010. The monetary value of the unpaid care work sector for the year 2010, was R 3.97 1.463 trillion using the Economy Wide Mean wage, R153.9 billion for Men and R273 billion for Women when using the Opportunity Cost method, and R1 trillion 26 billion for the Generalist wage method, as well as R1 trillion and 52 billion when using the Specialist Wage method.
Assessing the macroeconomic impact of free trade policies in Africa: a gravity model analysis.
(2024) Mpini, Songezo.; Adelakun, Johnson Ojo.
This study assesses the macroeconomic impact of trade openness in Africa from 1990 to 2022 using a gravity model. Ten African countries, representing the continent's five regions and varying in economic size and geographical location, were selected. The gravity model, known for its robustness in capturing the effects of economic size and geographic distance on trade flows, was employed. Three estimation techniques, Fixed Effects (FE), Random Effects (RE), and Poisson Pseudo Maximum-Likelihood (PPML), were explored, with PPML being preferred for its ability to handle zero trade flows and extreme values. The study reveals a number of interesting findings. First, the study finds evidence of trade-led growth and modest employment gains in 8 of the 10 studied economies, though the impact varies by country. Second, positive effects on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) were observed across all economies, underscoring Africa's reliance on foreign capital. Third, the study finds that trade openness positively influences exchange rates and lowers inflation, but this is statistically insignificant in countries with pegged currencies. Fourth, the study finds that larger economies benefit more from trade openness than smaller ones. Economic size matters more than distance, indicating that industrialisation and dominance of large multinational firms outweigh the costeffects of distance. Fifth, the study reveals that the composition of trade is crucial. Countries focusing on capital imports fare better than those reliant on consumable imports. Finally, the study finds that intra-African trade significantly boosts export performance for all the studied countries, highlighting the importance of regional trade agreements. These findings have some compelling policy implications. The study suggests shifting the structure of imports towards capital goods and implementing import substitution for consumer goods. On exports, the study recommends a shift towards value-added products, moving away from raw commodities, and implementing export promotion strategies for industrialisation. Free trade policies must then be targeted at capital goods and value-added products. Furthermore, the study strongly supports promoting intra-African trade to at least 50%, much higher than the current level of 14%. Lastly, the study recommends fostering macroeconomic stability to attract FDI. These policy measures are crucial for maximising the positive impact of free trade in Africa.
Analysing the sustainable development goals and sustainability reports of South Africa’s platinum mines.
(2025) Mangezi, Thamsanqa Quincy.; Mowat, Shaun Phillip.; Rhodes, Bruce David.
This study analyses the SDGs and sustainability reports of South Africa's platinum mines. Balancing economic growth, social equity and environmental protection is crucial for mineraldependent communities. Hotelling's rule further highlights the need for intergenerational equity in resource extraction, highlighting the importance of aligning mining with the SDGs. The paradoxical relationship between mining and sustainability is problematic. This is because mining exacerbates the issues that the SDGs aim to address. Notably, South African PGM mining companies, through their SLPs, must benefit the neighbouring mining communities because of their negative societal and environmental impacts. Arguably, achieving this objective is, to some extent, not materialising. Therefore, PGM mining companies’ sustainability reports communicate one side of the story and neglect the communities’ negative experiences. Hence, the Minerals Council of South Africa, aims to reposition the industry as a ‘sustainability leader’. Particularly given South Africa's global prominence in platinum production. As such, this study adopted the Minerals Council social and relationship capital SDGs, and devised three research objectives. To evaluate PGM mining companies’ implementation of the SDGs targets, the effectiveness of their sustainability reports using the SDG Compass. Lastly, the progress of PGM mining companies’ SLP sustainability projects. A dual-qualitative approach via semi-structured interviews and document analysis were used for data collection. First, semi-structured interviews were conducted with mining community stakeholders in South Africa's Bushveld Igneous Complex, a geographically concentrated and globally significant PGM hub. Second, PGM mining companies’ sustainability reports were analysed. The findings of this study, among others, are that PGM mining companies’ contribution to their surrounding mining communities vary. Second, it is evident that the majority of PGM mining companies analysed in this study exhibit surface-level understanding of the SDGs and moderately connect the SDGs with their business case. Lastly, SLP sustainability projects are done in silos, excluding the mining communities’ inputs due to misaligned community needs. As a result, the study recommended, a rigorous, continuous multi-stakeholder approach between the PGM mining companies, the mining communities and several other stakeholders to address the changing mining community needs. Second, to consult sustainability experts, particularly at audit firms, to ensure that strong governance principles are integrated with the SDGs.
The impact of economic and demographic factors on the environment in Africa: a case for Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt.
(2025) Muradya , Maxwell.; Mowat , Shaun Phillip.; McCullough , Kerry-Ann.
The study of the relationship between environmental degradation and socio-economic factors is almost at its zenith. Contemporary evidence points to economic and population growth as the biggest contributors to ecological decay, worldwide. Much of this evidence is based on empirical studies using CO2 emissions as the proxy for environmental harm. However, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions do not reflect the multi-facetedness of ecological degradation. Moreover, contemporary evidence has not settled the debate on the biggest environmental impact between economic and demographic factors, and what the nature of these impacts is in the long run. This study used the ecological footprint to fill these gaps, since it is a comprehensive barometer of the degradation of the natural environment. This study investigated the relationship among economic factors (Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), energy consumption and trade openness), demographic drivers (population density, urbanization and fertility) and environmental degradation (ecological footprint) in three populous economic giants in Africa (South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt) using panel data from World Development Indicators (WDI) and Global Footprint Network (GFN) for the period 1984 – 2022. The Pooled Mean Group – Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) approach was employed to investigate the short- and long-run dynamics. In the short run, trade openness, fertility rate and FDI were found to worsen environmental degradation, while the remaining variables were found to have insignificant impacts. In the long run, all demographic variables were found to have benign environmental impacts. Specifically, increases in fertility rates bring about environmental improvements, while increases in population density and urbanization have insignificant impacts on the environment. Conversely, all economic factors were found to degrade the environment. Energy consumption is the most significant contributor to environmental damage in the selected countries, followed by economic growth and trade openness. Fossil fuels dominate energy production in the studied countries, and the expanded use of energy to power economic activity is causing the most significant impact on the environment. It is recommended that policymakers in these three countries should consider transitioning to renewable and cleaner energy sources like solar power and natural gas to produce energy. However, the costs and benefits must be carefully considered.
Influence of capital elements on happiness in South Africa.
(2024) Danka, Fathima.; Mahadea, Darma.; Dobreva, Ralitza Vassileva.
Happiness is a universal goal sought after by individuals and policymakers. Most studies on happiness have been conducted in developed countries and have examined life satisfaction primarily from the perspective of financial wealth. However, not many studies have been conducted in developing countries and in the economic context of a broader capital set. Hence, this study investigates the influence of financial, human, and social and spiritual capital on happiness, in the context of South Africa, as a post-apartheid developing economy. South African nationally representative data pertaining to capital elements and individuals’ socio-economic attributes are extracted from the second wave of the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS), conducted in 2010/2011. The study initially uses Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to measure financial, human, and social and spiritual capital as latent variables. After assessing the reliability of the capital factors and the model fit, a measure for each of the three types of capital is generated based on the PCA results. An ordered probit model is then adopted to determine the influence of the diverse capital elements on happiness, controlling for age, race, gender, employment status, type of region where the individual resides, and the number of children under 7 years of age, who live in the individual’s household. The PCA results show that the financial capital index is closely related to household income per capita, household expenditure per capita, and the ownership of durable assets. The human capital index is strongly linked to literacy in English, educational attainment, and computer literacy, while the social and spiritual capital index is rooted in the relations inside and outside the household, reflected in experiences of violence and crime in the neighbourhood, as well as in trust. The ordered probit regression results indicate that statistically significant positive relationships exist between all capital elements and happiness. Human capital has the strongest relationship with happiness, followed by financial, and social and spiritual capital. Overall, the results suggest that all diverse capital elements can make a difference in enhancing people’s happiness.
Measuring the economic costs of trade protection in South Africa.
(2025) Molapo, Rethabile.; Kohler , Marcel Rene Anton Robert.
This dissertation investigates the economic cost of trade protection on South Africa's economy through a panel analysis from 2010 to 2022, focusing on South Africa’s trade with 127 partner countries. The Gravity model serves as the main estimation framework for the study as it provides a detailed observation of international trade. The Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation approaches serve as the main methods used to measure the effectiveness of the gravity model in the study. Through comparisons between OLS and PPML the study observes the elasticities of the determinants of trade across the OLS and PPML and affirms the need to focus on the PPML which reveals more reliable estimates which are neither underestimated nor overestimated the study confirms that trade protection leads to less trade activity, it will result to a reduction in gains from exports which is important in influencing the economic growth of South Africa. The research includes an in-depth analysis of tariffs, both as a standalone measure and as a variable within the gravity model as the main form of protectionism in international trade. The study highlights the evolving role of tariffs in trade protection and concludes that tariffs may have been overstated as a standalone measure of trade protection in studies of international trade. The study shows that tariffs have a more significant influence on trade in the PPML model as opposed to the OLS and the study shows that the PPML explains a larger degree of the effects on trade flows than the OLS does. The findings in the study suggest that the PPML method should be used for South Africa’s gravity model simulations due to the reliable elasticities that the model returns.
The impact of oil price fluctuations on the South African exchange rate.
(2025) Moabelo , Noko Kgaogelo.; Nyati , Malibongwe Cyprian.
This study investigates the nature of the relationship and the effects of changes in oil prices on South Africa's exchange rate. It fills an essential gap in comprehending how oil price shocks influence emerging market economic dynamics. South Africa is heavily dependent on imported oil, with 90% of the country’s oil and petroleum needs coming from imported sources, and the exchange rate is overly sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices. Through the use of a Bayesian Vector Auto Regressive (BVAR) model, this study examines the connections in the period from 2000-2022 between oil prices, the South African Rand (ZAR), and key macroeconomic indicators, like the Consumer Price Index (CPI), interest rates, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The study finds that the initial oil price shock to exchange rates is weakly positive in the short run, reflecting a 1% increase in oil prices, leading to a 0.08% exchange rate appreciation. This response is, however, very short-lived, as after the initial shock, results reflect a negative relationship in the long run. The study also finds an asymmetrical relationship between oil prices and exchange rates. These effects become more pronounced when global uncertainty is at its peak. This study aligns with studies such as those by Korley and Giouvris (2022), which highlight how shifts in oil prices affect exchange rates through trade balance and inflation pressures. By incorporating the concept of asymmetry into the study, this research yields information on how vulnerable the Rand is to sudden increases in oil prices, providing essential data for policymakers. The findings have implications for shaping policies in South Africa. Exchange rate stability strategies could involve diversifying energy sources and introducing risk hedging methods while striving for stability through flexible monetary and fiscal policies. This research also adds to the ongoing conversation about the susceptibility of emerging market currencies to external pressures, serving as a reference point for examining comparable economies. This research enriches the existing body of knowledge by addressing methodological gaps and providing a contemporary analysis of South Africa's exchange rate dynamics in a post-crisis global economy.
The relationship between social capital and mental health in South Africa: a comparison by gender.
(2024) Mancwatela , Azasiwe.; Vermaak , Claire Lauren.; Dobreva , Ralitza Vassileva.
Social capital, which encompasses the strength of social networks, trust, and community ties, has received growing attention for its influence on mental well-being. Research shows that social capital plays a key role in promoting positive mental health and protecting against mental health challenges, particularly depression. This study examines the relationship between social capital and mental health in South Africa, with a particular focus on how gender may shape these dynamics. Globally, a wide range of studies have demonstrated that social capital can protect against depression and other mental health issues. In South Africa, however, the impact of social capital is particularly complex, shaped by the country’s history of colonialism, apartheid, and social fragmentation. Understanding how social capital influences mental health in this context is crucial for addressing mental health challenges in the country. Using longitudinal data from the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS), which provides a detailed picture of South African society, this study explores the relationship between social capital and depression for African adults. Depression is measured using the CESD-10 score, which rates the extent of depression on a continuous scale, as well as a binary measure of depression. The study takes a gendered approach to examine how the relationship between social capital and mental health may differ for men and women, using statistical methods such as pooled OLS, fixed effects, and logit fixed effects models. The study finds that neighbourhood crime and violence are strongly linked to higher levels of depression for both genders, with men being more vulnerable to these environmental stressors. Neighbourhood attachment acts as a protective factor for women, reducing depression. The findings suggest that for men, religious and communal activities provide essential emotional support, while women may benefit from a wider range of social networks. Additionally, the quality of trust with neighbours plays a more significant role in men’s mental health.
Household vulnerability to food insecurity during the Covid-19 pandemic: a case of rural South Africa.
(2023) Hlope, Nonhlanhla Violet.; Bokana , Koye Gerry.
The COVID-19 pandemic has been one of the most challenging health crises of the 21st century. Not only did it affect the health condition of individuals, but it also affected the economy, leaving governments devastated and households destitute. While trying to lower the transmission of the virus, various restrictions were imposed, and this led to a food security crisis. In order to determine home susceptibility to household food insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic, this study employed a logit econometric technique. The four pillars established by the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) were utilized to comprehend the nature of food availability, accessibility, utility, and stability in order to deepen our grasp of food security. The study focused on food availability and accessibility for households. The study utilised the theoretical approach Sustainable Livelihood Framework (SLF), capital endowments. These are resources used by households to remain food resilient. Food insecurity was one of the consequences of COVID-19, specifically its impact on household capital endowments and livelihood strategies. Utilizing cross-sectional panel data from the Department of Statistics South Africa, this study used a quantitative methodology (StatsSA). The General Household Survey (GHS) 2020 from StatsSA was conducted across the country’s nine provinces. Using descriptive analysis to show the trends in food security, as well as the logit model, the study used a binary dependent variable with five asset classes of the capital endowments and vulnerabilities affecting households as empirical evidence of food insecurity in rural areas in South Africa. With the challenges brought about by the pandemic, rural households had to adjust to new methods of living. The results show that the households’ possession of the asset classes played a significant role in their ability to secure food during the Covid-19 pandemic. For example, households that were led by educated and economically active members were able to secure food during the pandemic compared to those that were not. A home that acquired its own income without relying on remittances was able to obtain food even during times when movement was restricted. Food security depended on the head of the home. Male-headed households were more likely to have access to food than female-headed households.
Oil prices and exchange rates dynamics in South Africa.
(2024) Dube , Nozipho Sinenhlanhla.; Msomi , Simiso Sinqumo Sanele Gary.
The study examines the dynamics between oil prices and exchange rates in an oil-importing country to guide policymakers in their decision making. Furthermore, findings from this study seeks to decision makers to make informed and effective control measures. For this reason, this paper studies the effect of oil prices and oil price volatility on the rand-to-dollar exchange rate. It uses South African monthly data from 2000: M1 to 2023: M12, accessed from the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis (FRED) and the World Bank. It employs the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Model and further computes impulse responses and the forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). The main findings of the study show that South African nominal exchange rates respond asymmetrically to changes in oil prices and that they tend to respond more to negative oil price shocks. The response of the South African nominal effective exchange rate to oil prices contradicts several author’s work. The results further show that oil price volatilities cause the South African rand to depreciate.
The impact of transport infrastructure investment on the output growth of rural nodal district municipalities in South Africa.
(2023) Jili , Fatima Mbali Palesa.; Gumede , Sanele.
Transport infrastructure is an integral part of economic and social development in many countries, including South Africa, and it is pivotal in transportation systems. According to economic growth theories and empirical literature, a good transportation system not only ensures lower transportation costs but enhances accessibility and output in general. Despite this, rural South Africa continues to have widespread poverty, poor infrastructure, and restricted access to essential services. This research interrogates why this phenomenon occurs by using secondary data from the National Treasury on Local Government, Statistics SA (South Africa), and the Department of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs. To date there is little literature that examines the effect of transport infrastructure investment on output growth in South Africa. Most of this literature has not assessed the underdevelopment of transport infrastructure in rural areas. In addition, no empirical studies have examined the impact of investment in transport infrastructure on output growth in rural nodal district municipalities within South Africa. This dissertation investigates how transportation infrastructure investment affects the output growth of rural nodal district municipalities in South Africa. This is accomplished by 1) investigating the relationship between transport infrastructure investment and output growth in rural nodal district municipalities, and 2) understanding the causal relationship between transportation infrastructure investment and output growth in rural nodal district municipalities. This analysis makes use of panel data from 2012 to 2019. Furthermore, Fisher-type (ADF and PP) panel unit root tests (Maddala and Wu, 1999) were used to determine whether the variables used were stationary. Moreover, the Pedroni tests (1999) were used to determine the presence of cointegration among the variables. Once the existence of cointegration was confirmed, this study employed the panel VECM. A Panel Granger-Causality test was employed to check and examine the direction of causality between transportation infrastructure investment and output growth. The study recommends that the government should improve investments in transport to improve the output of rural nodal districts.
Determining factors affecting English literacy levels at Ntuthuko Primary School.
(2018) Mtungwa, Zanele Almina.; Bozas, Alec.
ABSTRACT Learners in South Africa are performing poorly in the area reading and writing English. The South African Department of Education conducted a systemic evaluation of language competence of intermediate phase learners in South Africa and found that a large majority (63%) were below the required competence for their age level. The problem in reading and writing English is also common at Ntuthuko Primary School a public primary school in KwaZulu Natal province. For instance, an observational study and literature at the school indicates that pupils at Ntuthuko Primary School have difficulties in reading and writing English, the First Additional Language. English literacy is one of the key focuses in education. Therefore the purpose of this study is to determine factors that adversely affect English literacy levels at Ntuthuko primary school. The target population for this study were teachers Ntuthuko primary school. Non-probability sampling purposive sampling was used to select a total of 8 teachers. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were used to generate the data needed from participants to understand the research problem under study. Thematic analysis was used to analyse data. The study reveals that factors that adversely affect learners' English literacy include opportunity to learn, aptitude for learning, quality of instructions and family factors. There is need to address factors that adversely affect the English literacy of learners at Ntuthuko Primary School. In addition, there is need to encourage parents to enrol their children in R to help them develop early literacy skills, support parents to develop positive attitudes towards English literacy. Parents should also be encouraged to communicate with learners while teachers should help learners reduce English learning anxiety by showing learners that it is possible to learn to write and speak English proficiently.
Monetary policy shocks and macroeconomic performance in regionally integrated common monetary area economies.
(2021) Shumba, Theron.; Mukorera, Sophia Zivano Elixir.
The CMA (Common Monetary Area), comprising of South Africa, Lesotho, Eswatini, and Namibia, has experienced a steady improvement towards economic restructuring. This is due to recent global developments and economic integration where countries are coming together to form regional economic integration initiatives and coordinate their economic policymaking effectively. Just like the CMA countries, many countries, such as Germany, Spain, Italy, Austria, Greece, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Ireland, Portugal, Finland, France, Belgium, Slovenia, Cyprus, Latvia, Slovakia, Lithuania, Malta, and Estonia, have come together to form a strong monetary union for the purpose of having a sound and effective monetary policy.This study traces how a shock or an unanticipated change in the central bank's policy instrument of South Africa (SA_REPO) affects the selected macroeconomic variables, such as the Real Gross Domestic Product Growth (RGDP_G), inflation (INF), money supply (MS), and lending rates (LRATE), in the entire CMA region. Employing a Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive model (Panel-SVAR) and annual data from 1980–2019, the findings show that a shock in the South African repo rate (SA_REPO) significantly affected the macroeconomic variables, such as RGDP_G, INF,LRATE and MS, in the entire CMA region. The results indicate that a shock in the South African repo rate is followed by a significant decline in the economic growth (RGDP_G), a decrease in inflation, a decrease in money supply and an increase in lending rates in the entire CMA region. The study recommends that CMA monetary authorities and policymakers need to formulate policies toward cushioning the effects of unanticipated monetary policy shocks from the anchor country as well as global shocks.
Political risk, export credit insurance and trade: a gravity model analysis of South Africa.
(2020) Poswa, Thabiso Luyolo.; Tang, Vanessa.
This study adds to the literature on political risk, export credit insurance, and trade. Specifically, the study aims to consider the effect political risk and export credit insurance may have on South African exports using an extended gravity model framework and regression analysis from 1996 - 2018. Gravity models and estimation techniques differ in the literature. Methods include the Fixed Effects (FE), Random Effects (RE), and more recently, using the Poisson-Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML). The PPML is the preferred estimation technique of this study as it reduces the bias problems resulting from zero trade flows and potential heteroscedasticity (Santos Silva and Tenreyro, 2006). In addition, this is further justified as Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2011) and Martin and Pham (2020) argue that the PPML estimation technique is also more appropriate than the traditional FE and RE estimation techniques. Thus, considering these limitations, using the preferred PPML estimation technique, this study finds that political risk significantly undermines trade. However, the export credit insurance variable is insignificant and does not play an influential role in South Africa’s bilateral trade. Additionally, other attributes, including the role of market power as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), distance, and the regional groupings of African states through SADC, have important bearings. An important implication is that African countries' inability to harness the gains from trade might be rooted in factors beyond trade finance constraints and more related to political risks and geographical constraints.
Fiscal policy and public debt implications on household consumption: a case of Kenya.
(2021) Muind, Naomy Nthenya.; Mukorera, Sophia Zivano Elixir.
Fiscal policy can be applied with a stabilisation intention if government finance choices are capable of influencing household consumption behaviour. After the great depression of the 1930s, Keynes ascertained expansionary fiscal policy as the best economic stabilisation tool during a recession as it can crowd in household consumption. Empirical studies dealing with fiscal policy and public debt implications on household consumption have concentrated more on developed nations and more so, the studies conducted have been based on the assumption of an obvious symmetric relationship between household consumption and fiscal policy. The study objective was to examine if fiscal policy crowds in/crowds out household consumption, and if the Ricardian Equivalence hypothesis holds in Kenya. An empirical analysis was conducted using secondary data for the period between 1971 and 2018. The Nonlinear Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) bounds test was used to evaluate the existence of an asymmetric relationship between household consumption (dependent variable) and government expenditure, tax revenue, public debt, real GDP, and inflation (independent variables). In the short run, both expansionary and contractionary fiscal policies were found not to affect household consumption; only negative changes in inflation significantly impacted household consumption. However, expansionary fiscal policy (through the negative changes in tax revenue) was found to crowd in household consumption, while positive changes in government expenditure were found to crowd out household consumption in the long run. Positive changes in public debt were found to crowd out household consumption as well. For contractionary policies, lowering government expenditure or increasing revenue was found not to affect household consumption in the long run. Using the Wald test criteria, the independent variables were found to show an asymmetric impact on the dependent. The research findings of this study disclosed that, in the short run, fiscal policy and public debt do not affect household consumption. However, in the long run, fiscal policy and public debt were found to have a significant effect on household consumption, and therefore it was concluded that REH does not hold in the long run.
An analysis of bank competition and financial stability: evidence from the South African banking sector.
(2021) Vilakazi, Mzamo Perceviere.; Muzindutsi, Paul-Francois.; Meyiwa, Ayanda.
There is a crucial role that the banking in terms of play and serve as central to the economy. Thus, competition is vital to the banking industry. However, while competition is perceived to be vital to the banking industry, it is claimed to have both positive and negative implications on the financial stability of banks. This study investigated the link between bank competition and financial stability in South Africa. The study utilized panel regression to examine the associations between different measures of bank competition and financial stability for the major five banks over the sample period spinning from 2009 to 2019. This study employed three different models namely, the Boone indicator, Lerner index, and fluctuating H-statistics to test for bank competition theories. The study further investigated the level of competition in the South African banking sector by unpacking the concept of concentration in the South African banking sector, using Concentration Ratios (CR) and Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). The study used the Z-score and profitability as dependent variables to proxy for financial stability in the banking sector. The economic activity and the bank size were used as the control variables in the competition and stability models to account for any uncounted variables. The findings indicated that less competition in the banking market causes banks to engage in risky activities, face regulatory intervention, or, worse, fail, consistent with the competition stability hypothesis. Furthermore, more competition and access to related financial services can be applauded to produce a competing environment in the South African banking services industry. Overall, this study concluded by supporting that more competition enhances financial stability.

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