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Carbon emissions, climate risk, price dynamics, and agricultural performance in South Africa: econometric analysis of short and long -run impacts.
(2026) Oni, Femi Emmanuel.; Baiyegunhi, Lloyd James Segun
Agriculture is one of the cornerstone sectors of the South African economy, providing a significant contribution to gross domestic product (GDP), employment, rural livelihoods, and food security. However, it is an industry exposed to increasing risks of carbon emissions, climate variations, and price fluctuations, combining all these together puts productivity, market stability, and longevity at risk. South Africa is the continent's highest emitter of CO₂, yet its agriculture is also among the most vulnerable to climate change. However, robust data on the combined influence of emissions, climate risks, and price dynamics on agricultural performance in the short and long term have been elusive. To bridge this knowledge gap, this dissertation examines the relationships between carbon emissions, climate variability, price risk, and agricultural productivity through an empirical analysis of these variables in South Africa for the period 1992–2021. This work consists of four empirical parts, each addressing a different element of the emissions–climate–price–agriculture nexus. The first investigates the effects of CO2 on food consumption patterns and prices of important farm goods. Employing the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) methodology, along with Johansen cointegration techniques, unitroot tests, impulse response analysis, and variance decomposition, the study proposes long-run equilibria between emissions, consumer price inflation, purchasing power, and consumption trends. Results show that CO₂ emissions lead to increased food prices in the long run through production variability, which in turn affects consumption among the poorest consumers. In the short term, the effects of shocks related to emissions spread through price inflation channels, which decrease dietary diversity and increase the vulnerability of food-insecure households. Secondly, the research explores the couplings between agricultural growth and carbon emissions in South Africa, and whether the agricultural sector in South Africa has undergone a decoupling process. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), and Dynamic OLS (DOLS), the results reveal that CO₂ emissions have a strong long-run relationship with agricultural value-added, trade openness, and renewable energy. Results provide evidence for partial but insufficient decoupling: productivity gains from technological efficiency improvements have been offset by increasing emissions resulting from high demand for mechanization, fertilizer use, and landuse changes to sustain agricultural growth. It concludes that renewable energy adoption has not yet transpired at the level needed to counterbalance the emissions burdens, indicating an imperative for policy to facilitate energy diversification and support low-carbon farming innovations. The third part studies the combined effects of climate variability and price risk for agricultural production. The study also includes external trade Variables, domestic price volatility indicators, temperature, and rainfall anomalies using ARDL, cointegration analysis, and Granger causality. Results show that rainfall variability has a highly significant long-run impact on agricultural production, not surprising given South Africa’s dependence on rain-fed agricultural systems. The short-term effects of temperature increases, especially heatwaves, are detrimental to productivity, while sustained exposure results in long-term soil deterioration and a reduction in output. Driven by climate-related shocks to agricultural production, international market dynamics, and exchange rate volatility, this is compounded by the volatility in production, which constrains farm investment decisions and leads to lower output in the long run. The bidirectional causality between climate variables and prices indicates that climate disturbances not only affect markets but also reinforce these disturbances through the structures of markets and trade conditions. In the final empirical section, the joint impacts of CO₂ emission risk and price volatility on agricultural output are examined within a risk-adjusted Vector Error Correction (VEC) framework. The study reveals robust long-run linkages; i.e., emission risks significantly hinder agricultural productivity by exacerbating environmental degradation, reducing input-use efficiency, and increasing yield variability. These losses are compounded by price risk, which raises costs for inputs and disincentivizes longer-term investments in technology and adaptation. Emission risk and price volatility have a joint negative effect that is more detrimental than the sum of the negative effects of emission risk and price volatility taken independently, which signals the need for integrated risk management. The econometric evidence is consistent across all components, revealing that the South African agricultural sector is substantially vulnerable to environmental and market shocks, with significant short- and long-term effects on productivity, prices, and food security. The results highlight the critical importance of enhancing climate-smart agriculture, expanding renewable energy options, increasing capacity to stabilize markets, and providing targeted investment in adaptation strategies for both commercial and smallholder farmers. To this end, policies such as carbon credit systems, strategic grain reserves, enhanced access to advanced early-warning climate information, and subsidies for low-carbon technologies emerge as essential points of intervention. This dissertation makes several contributions. Conceptually, it advances a unified framework of emissions, climate, price, and agricultural production, which is theoretically presented as separate parcels in South African literature. Methodologically, complementary econometric methods can identify both short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships, providing a more detailed insight into the sector’s fragilities. In practical terms, the results provide concrete guidelines for policymakers, agribusinesses, and rural development actors seeking to design sustainable and resilient agricultural pathways. More broadly, results confirm that sustainable agricultural development pathways in South Africa will only be achieved through integrated interventions that address the environmental, economic, and technological components of emissions mitigation, market stabilization, and adaptive capacity simultaneously. By quantifying the soil, climate variability, and price risk impacts on crop production, the research enables an empirical basis for integrated policies compatible with national productivity growth, food security, and sustainable climate change adaptation over the long term.
Impact of agricultural extension services on the technical efficiency of adopters and non-adopters of genetically modified maize in the Eastern Cape province.
(2026) Ngqulana, Athenkosi.; Oladele, Oladimeji Idowu.; Mdoda, Lelethu.
Maize (Zea Mays) is one of the most widely grown cereals and is consumed worldwide. In South Africa, maize is grown for various purposes, which include animal feed such as silage and grains, poultry and pig feed, and human consumption, as grains, sweet maize, and grain maize. Despite its importance, maize productivity remains low due to poor seed quality, pest and disease susceptibility, climate variability, limited access to high-quality inputs, inequitable allocation of resources, inadequate extension services, and suboptimal farm management. Genetically modified (GM) maize seeds have been developed to improve production, resilience, and overall farm performance; however, their adoption remains inconsistent. Smallholder farmers often prefer the use of traditional seed varieties, which tend to perform poorly under the harsh conditions of the Eastern Cape. Hence, this study evaluated the impact of agricultural extension services on the technical efficiency of adopters and non-adopters of genetically modified maize across Chris Hani District and OR Tambo District Municipality using a quantitative approach. A multistage sampling method was used to collect data from 306 maize farmers using a semi-structured questionnaire. The descriptive statistics of the overall sample revealed a predominance of female participants (56.9%), with an average age of 61 years, 7 years spent at school, managing about 8 hectares, and an average income of ZAR 6637.52. The average farm size reported in this study reflects the total land that farmers had access to for cultivation rather than land ownership. This includes land that was borrowed or leased from relatives and other landowners, as well as larger landholdings accessed by beneficiaries of the government's land reform programme. Only 6.2% were formerly employed, 19.3% self-employed, 34.0% unemployed, and 40.5% retired, with an average household size of 9.14. The probit model indicated several significant variables that affected GM adoption, such as gender, years spent in school, marital status, household size, household monthly income, land size, access to extension services, and amount of credits, which positively influenced the adoption of GM maize seeds by farmers, while distance to markets was negatively associated with the adoption of GM seeds. The truncated regression model revealed that household size, household income, land size, and amount of credits positively influenced adoption intensity; distance to markets was negatively associated with the intensity of adoption of GM maize seeds by farmers. Using the stochastic frontier analysis, Meta-Frontier, and Endogenous Switching, the study further evaluated the productivity effects of agricultural extension on smallholder maize efficiency. The findings revealed that agricultural extension services significantly enhanced maize productivity, with an average yield gain of 0.81 tonnes per hectare. Farmers with access to extension operated closer to the production frontier and exhibited higher technical efficiency than non-participants, with a mean efficiency level of 77%, indicating room for improvement. The study further delved into unpacking Smallholder Maize Farmers’ Preferences for Genetically Modified Maize Seeds in the study area. The findings revealed that farmers’ seed choices included GM (HT/BT) at 38.6%, GM (BT) at 26.8%, and traditional maize at 35.0%. While Multinomial Regression Logistic results revealed that household age, education, income, years of maize farming, and organizational membership positively influenced both GM (HT/BT) and GM (BT) selection. In contrast, extension services and credit access influenced GM (HT/BT) adoption only, and this might be because it offers combined herbicide tolerance and insect resistance, making it a more comprehensive technology package. Furthermore, the study looked at the productivity-profitability trade-offs and the welfare effects of GM Maize in the study area. The propensity score matching revealed that adopters consistently achieved higher maize yields compared to non-adopters of GM technology, with increases of 2.1 tons/ha (Nearest Neighbor) and 2.25 tons/ha (Kernel). Lastly, the study evaluated the adoption of genetically modified maize seed on input elasticities and productivity among Smallholder Farming Systems. The Cobb-Douglas Stochastic Production Frontier (SPF) model revealed that SPF results indicated that adopters revealed significantly higher input elasticities for seed (0.40, p < 0.01) and fertiliser (0.20, p < 0.01), while non-adopters showed limited responsiveness to modern inputs. Technical efficiency was markedly higher among adopters (TE = 0.75) than among non-adopters (TE = 0.60), with adopters operating under constant returns to scale and non-adopters under decreasing returns to scale. These findings demonstrate that GM maize adoption enhances input efficiency, boosts productivity, and provides a pathway for sustainable intensification of smallholder maize systems. Based on these key findings, the study recommends that strengthening agricultural extension systems through mobile-based platforms, tailored knowledge dissemination, and inclusive targeting of resource-constrained farmers can significantly narrow efficiency gaps and promote sustainable intensification. Furthermore, the study emphasises introducing context- and variety-specific policies, strengthening extension services and farm organizations, engaging experienced farmers as lead farmers, and developing subsidies and microcredit schemes to enhance the choice of GM maize seed selection by farmers. Lastly, the results provide policymakers and agricultural extension personnel with evidence to design effective input support, extension, and technology dissemination programs. The results provide policymakers and agricultural extension personnel with evidence to design effective input support, improve access to inputs, strengthen extension services, and enhance technology dissemination programs. This should involve the inclusion of public-private partnerships (PPP) models to address the high extensionto-farmer ratios and issue of funding, whereby government collaborates with private seed companies, non-governmental organisations, research institutions, and farmer organisations to co-finance and deliver extension services.
Assessing the spatio-temporal patterns of road kills on selected routes between Komani and Kokstad.
(2023) Oddone Aquino, Ayrton Gino Humberto Emilio.; Nkomo, S’phumelele Lucky.; Gebreslasie, Michael Teweldemedhin.
Road kills are a challenge in the contemporary world and present potential negative impacts on society and the environment. Vehicle collisions with large animals can result in serious harm to motorists and their passengers. Those collisions that do not harm people still inevitably harm the animals involved. These harms can result in serious negative environmental impacts. The lack of attention given to the species composition of road kill perpetuates the challenges and impacts associated with animal-vehicle collisions (AVCs). Even if a species has a favourable conservation status, the impacts of AVCs can hinder local populations and ecosystem function for the areas those animals occupy. Although typically associated with road kill, wildlife is not always the category of animals in danger of animal related accidents. Other categories of biota such as domesticated animals (pets including cats and dogs) and livestock (animals owned for agricultural purposes including cows and sheep) have been known to fall victim to collisions, which can have impacts on the people who rely on them. In a given area, if the locations and times of a group of road kills is known, spatiotemporal patterns can be identified to explicate how and why road kills occur. Evaluating patterns and trends in road kill can enable opportunities to mitigate these incidences. The aim of this study was to assess the spatio-temporal patterns of road kills on selected routes between Komani and Kokstad in order to determine the underlying causes of animal-vehicle collisions and identify appropriate mitigation measures. The objectives were to; determine the species characterisation of road kills on the selected routes, to identify the spatio-temporal patterns, examine local factors contributing to AVCs, examine the impacts of road kill on local animal populations, and recommend suitable mitigation measures for a sustainable transport system. To achieve these objectives, a relevant road kill dataset was obtained from the Endangered Wildlife Trust, consisting of 249 road kills from 2007 to 2020, in the study area of interest. The road kill data was mapped in the study area using ArcMap 10.6 and ArcGIS Pro 3.0. The routes in the study area included the N2, N6, R56, R61, R63, R67, R349, and R396. Additionally, road infrastructure and climate data, retrieved from South African National Roads Agency SOC Ltd and South African Weather Services, respectively, were applied to identify any possible influencing factors for road kill. The road kill data was analysed using Optimised Hot Spot Analysis. A protected areas layer was incorporated to assess for a potential relationship between road kill incidents and proximity to protected areas. The climate and road infrastructure data were refined and evaluated in Microsoft Excel. The species composition comprised 35 different species of road killed animals; 249 specimens in total. A total of 154 road kills were unidentified species. The Optimised Hot Spot Analysis revealed 24 statistically significant hot spots in the study area. Of these 24 hot spots, 21 were in the 99% confidence interval and 3 were within the 95% confidence interval. Furthermore, 23 of these statistically significant hot spots were on the R56, and 1 on the N2, all of which were closer to Kokstad than Komani. These hot spots were also found across the provincial border between the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. Proximity to protected areas, temperature, road width and a lack of appropriate road signage and speed limits were identified as potential influencing factors. In terms of temporal trends, recorded road kills were most frequent in the month of June and in the year 2019, for the 2007-2020 reporting period. Temperature data and correlation analysis revealed a weak relationship between road kill incidents and temperature. Correlation for road kill and road widths were found to be weak, overall, but require a more comprehensive analysis and extensive, available data. Spatio-temporal analysis and field observations, however, still provided important insights into road kill studies. The impacts of these AVCs were found to be a potential compromise of species population dispersal rates, gene flow, and ecosystem functioning. To mitigate these impacts, recommendations included implementing effective road signage, incorporating the challenges of AVCs in environmental and road policies, supervision of citizen scientists, and the development of an application that utilises a Geographic Information System (GIS) to predict and assess areas for probability of AVCs. This can help improve the judgement of drivers and reduce road kills.
Exploring the role of the creative and cultural industry on local economic development in Mandeni Local Municipality.
(2026) Mazibuko, Ncebo Matthew.; Kunene, Lindiwe Nqobile.
The study's purpose was to explore the entrepreneurial effect, employment creation and social cohesion role of the creative and cultural industry (CCI) on local economic development (LED) in Mandeni, as well as to establish enhancement strategies. The study adopted a qualitative method to emphasize the exploration of the role of CCI and bring about the in-depth understanding of its contextual dynamic rather than quantifying its impact. Employing a qualitative exploratory design, data were collected through semi-structured interviews with twenty-two (22) municipal officials involved in CCI under the LED office and the office of the municipal manager (OMM), as well as through document analysis. Data were analysed using Braun and Clarke’s thematic analysis, facilitated by Nvivo version 14 software. Key findings indicated that while CCI generated diverse entrepreneurial and temporary employment opportunities (e.g., event organising, craft sales), and significantly promoted social cohesion by uniting communities, its overall contribution to sustained LED was constrained. Challenges included limited sustained income, insufficient digital access, and inadequate capacity building. These findings partly aligned with Human Capital Theory and Asset-Based Community Development. Recommendations include that Mandeni Municipality integrate CCI into core LED planning, prioritise sustainable funding, invest in digital infrastructure and literacy, establish comprehensive business capacity building, and promote regularity and diversity of creative events. Limitations include the qualitative nature of the study, its focus on Mandeni, and the small sample size, which limit the generalizability of findings. This study fills a critical knowledge gap regarding CCI's impact on LED in Mandeni, providing insights for policymakers to formulate targeted strategies addressing poverty and unemployment.
Girls’ constructions of love in dating relationships: a narrative study in a rural Kwazulu-Natal secondary school.
(2026) Dube, Praisewell Nonhlanhla.; Moletsane, Relebohile.; Pillay, Daisy Guruvasagie.
Premised on the understanding that adolescent girls tend to construct love in ways that make them vulnerable to gender-based violence (GBV), this thesis reports on a narrative inquiry that addressed the research question: How might rural schoolgirls' understandings of love in dating relationships influence their vulnerability to gender-based violence? Conducted in a rural secondary school in the province of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) in South Africa, the study involved 23 girls aged 13-20 across grades 8-11. The study was located within the interpretivism paradigm and framed by social constructionism as the analytical lens. To generate data, the study used three participatory data generation methods: letter writing, collagemaking, and artefact retrieval. Data were analysed using both narrative analysis and thematic analysis. Firstly, the findings highlight six discourses of love that dominate rural schoolgirls' constructions of love, namely: (1) love as a beautiful feeling; (2) love as material care; (3) love as being cherished, belonging, and emotional well-being; (4) love as loyalty and jealousy; (5) love as virginity; and (6) love as sex and childbearing. Secondly, they indicate that the socio-economic context intersects with oppressive systems of power such as unequal gender norms, social class, and patriarchy, and the participants' understandings and performance of femininity. Notably, the participants in this study demonstrated significant agency as they proposed various strategies for addressing GBV in their community. However, some of the strategies they identified seemed to be informed by a desire for further violence, including a proposal to have perpetrators of GBV killed. This thesis concludes that unless we understand GBV as multidimensional and complex, and as produced and reproduced within a particular social and gender order and specific gender regimes characterised by unequal gender norms and endemic violence, the aggression that we seek to address might become entrenched in communities. Thus, interventions that solicit young people's voices on contextually relevant and peaceful strategies, including comprehensive sexuality education, are critical if we are to realise effective GBV prevention and ultimately, its elimination in all spaces.