Doctoral Degrees (Economics)

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10413/6939

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Financial literacy, financial information, and financial well-being: evidence from Ghana rural households.
(2025) Kuutol, Peter Kwame.; Mbonigaba, Josue.; Garidzirai, Rufaro.
Background: Financial information is expected to enhance financial literacy, financial decision-making, and household well-being. However, in Ghana’s Upper West Region (UWR), several challenges—including low financial literacy, high poverty levels, sociocultural influences, and the marginalization of women in financial matters—may cause households to disregard financial information when addressing pressing sociocultural concerns. Additionally, the growing exposure of rural populations to digitalization and financial literacy programs raises questions about how different types of financial information influence the relationship between financial literacy and financial well-being. This thesis deeply explores this issue, considering this context's enabling and limiting factors. Objectives: The thesis provides a detailed analysis of how various types of information influence the relationship between financial literacy and financial well-being in this context. It starts by 1) examining how financial literacy influences financial well-being as a preliminary inquiry and 2) investigating the role of crude financial information in shaping financial decisions. These analyses are followed by an assessment of how 3) the levels, 4) patterns, and 5) sources of financial information mediate this relationship. Finally, the thesis evaluates 6) whether the findings vary when male dominance is moderated, ensuring that both men and women have an equal voice in responding to the questions in this thesis. Methods: A mixed-methods approach was employed, integrating quantitative and qualitative analyses to address the research objectives. The quantitative component focused on Objectives 1 to 5, while the qualitative component provided more profound insights into Objective 6. For the quantitative analysis, cross-sectional data were collected through a survey of 663 randomly selected household heads in the UWR. A hierarchical reflective-reflective measurement model within Structural Equation Modeling–Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS) was used to examine the mediating role of financial information. For the qualitative analysis, 12 household heads—equally represented by gender (six maleheaded and six female-headed households)—were interviewed. Content analysis was used to analyze qualitative data, allowing for a richer understanding of financial decisionmaking behaviours and gender dynamics. Findings: From the quantitative analysis, the study revealed that financial literacy 1) positively influences financial well-being, with a more significant effect on men than women, but with a similar impact regardless of formal education status, 2) has a significant positive impact on various dimensions of financial information, including consumption, level, pattern, and source. Additionally, the study found that the extent of financial information consumption, the advanced status of financial information received, and recent patterns of financial information-seeking mediate(enhance) the effect of financial literacy on financial well-being in rural households in the UWR. These results are robust across genders, financial products, and formal education status. However, financial information sources did not strengthen the impact of financial literacy on financial well-being in the region. From the qualitative analyses, the study reveals that financial literacy influences financial well-being, regardless of gender. Women tend to make non-financially sound decisions in specific sociocultural contexts involving burials and weddings. Both men and women with similar financial literacy levels tend to make similar decisions on resource management efficiency, risk-taking, and investment. Policy implications: The findings highlight financial information's crucial role in enhancing financial literacy programs' effectiveness regardless of sociocultural context barriers. Reliable access to such information empowers women and promotes inclusive development. Policymakers should prioritize ensuring accessible, credible financial information for rural populations to support financial well-being. Contribution to knowledge: This study contributes to financial literacy research by examining how financial information influences the link between financial literacy and financial well-being in rural Ghana, where sociocultural norms hinder rational financial decisions. It is the first to provide a detailed mixed-methods approach to distinguish the mediating role of financial information in studied relationships across gender, financial products, and educational status in a context where sociocultural context entails financial commitments likely to obstruct personally beneficial financial decision-making. Other conttibution to knowledge are detailed in the thesis.
Cross-country macroprudential policy coordination and financial stability in advanced and systemic middle-income economies.
(2024) Magubane, Declek Khwazi.; Nyatanga, Phocenah.; Nzimande, Ntokozo Patrick.
Cross-country macroprudential policy coordination is increasingly recognized as a vital tool for mitigating international financial crises and addressing systemic risks in advanced systemic economies (ASEs) and systemic middle-income countries (SMICs). ASEs and SMICs control the largest financial systems, making them key sources and amplifiers of global financial disturbances. However, for effective policy coordination, these economies must first meet three essential prerequisites: strong financial integration, the availability of effective macroprudential policy frameworks, and the presence of common measures of systemic risk. This study aims to assess whether ASEs and SMICs satisfy these conditions. The study is structured around three core objectives. First, it examines the degree of financial synchronisation between these economies, utilising a dynamic factor model and Bayesian vector-autoregression model with data spanning 1960Q1 to 2023Q4. The results indicate that there is a common factor driving much of the variation in the financial cycles of ASEs and SMICs. Additionally, shocks in ASEs' financial cycles explain nearly 40% of future variations in SMICs' financial cycles, and vice versa, demonstrating significant financial synchronisation between the two groups. Second, the study assesses the effectiveness of macroprudential policies in these economies, employing the dynamic common correlated effects model and the panel structural vector model using data from 1980M1 to 2023M12. The findings reveal that tightening macroprudential policies lead to relocation effects—capital flows decrease in tightening jurisdictions but increase in those with looser regulations. Furthermore, countryspecific policies generally reduce credit and asset prices, while common policies stimulate these factors, uncovering trade-offs between different policy approaches. Third, the study constructs a common financial cycle to capture shared systemic risk, using the Markov switching dynamic regression factor model. It identifies asset prices, capital flows, central bank policy rates, and the Volatility Index (VIX) as key systemic risk drivers, with peaks in the common cycle coinciding with financial crises. Therefore, the common financial cycle captures the evolution of risk in these economies in ASEs and SMICs. Overall, the findings suggest that ASEs and SMICs meet the conditions for cross-country macroprudential policy coordination. Therefore, it is recommended that ASEs and SMICs establish a supranational prudential authority to coordinate and supervise macroprudential policies on behalf of member states. Furthermore, discussions should be held to develop mechanisms for effectively managing the trade-offs between country-specific and common macroprudential measures.
Health inequality and healthcare policies’ efficacy across areas with different deprivation levels within South Africa.
(2024) Dlamini , Msawenkosi Milton.; Mbonigaba , Josue.
Despite South Africa's efforts to reduce socio-economic inequalities since 1994 through policies like the Reconstruction and Development Programme and the Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment Act, significant disparities remain. While these policies aimed to improve access to services and provide economic opportunities for marginalised communities, their impact has been limited. As a result, health disparities persist, challenging the effectiveness of existing health policies. This thesis seeks to fill a research gap by assessing health inequalities and the efficacy of healthcare policies across regions with varying levels of deprivation in South Africa. It is structured around four interconnected analyses. The first analysis investigates the impact of localised deprivation on adult health across different areas (traditional authority, formal rural, and formal and informal urban regions) using ordered probit models and data from the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS). The findings reveal significant health disparities, especially in informal urban areas, where increased deprivation is strongly correlated with poor self-rated health. This highlights the need for targeted health interventions in these regions. The second analysis explores socio-economic inequalities in chronic illnesses and disabilities among children utilising concentration indices, Oaxaca-Blinder Decomposition, and NIDS data from the 2008 and 2017 waves. The results show stark disparities, with children from wealthier households in formal urban areas benefiting from better health outcomes, while poorer children in informal urban areas are disadvantaged. The third analysis examines diabetes prevalence among South African adults using standardised concentration indices, decomposition techniques and NIDS data. It uncovers varying socio-economic disparities across regions, with some areas showing reduced inequalities while others show increasing disparities. The final analysis looks at the relationship between public health expenditure and health outcomes from 2005 to 2019 across South African provinces employing two-way fixed effects panel models data from multiple sources. It finds that higher per capita health spending is paradoxically associated with lower life expectancy, indicating inefficiencies in resource allocation. Overall, the study underscores the need for tailored, region-specific healthcare policies to address the diverse challenges and reduce health inequalities across South Africa.
The monetary model of exchange rate behaviour: the case of South Africa = Isifanekisomali esiphathelene nendlela yokuhwebelana kwamazwe: okucwaningwayo eNingizimu Afrika.
(2024) Msomi , Simiso Sinqumo Sanele Gary.; Ngalawa , Harold Phellix Emmanuel.
The exchange rates behaviour has been a topic of interest in the macroeconomics literature. Despite the extensive body of the literature on the subject, the exchange rates movement remains controversial. In the previous 40 years, economists developed theories that intended to explain the behaviour of the floating exchange rates. However, the empirical results have not been consistent with the predictions of the theories. South Africa has also had challenges with its exchange rate behaviour since the beginning of World War I. Over the years, the monetary authorities tried various methods of managing the factors believed to influence the behaviour of the domestic exchange rates. The main problem of the domestic exchange rates has been constant depreciation. The domestic exchange rates continue to depreciate even to this day despite the efforts. This study focuses on the relationship of some monetary variables that are believed have effect on the behaviour of the exchange rates. The economic theory supports the link between monetary variables and the exchange rates behaviour. However, the relationship between domestic exchange rates fundamentals seems to diverge from what is expected. As noted, the literature fails to link the exchange rates with its fundamentals. In this study we use non-linear estimations to model the interaction between the macroeconomic fundamentals and the domestic exchange rates which are Markov Switching model, Bayesian VAR and Threshold Autoregressive model. Firstly, the study found that private information which is not observed might have more effect on the exchange rates behaviour than expectations of exchange rates. Secondly, we found that expectations of income have an impact on the domestic exchange rates in some occasions. While in other situations, the domestic exchange rates behaviour cannot be linked with the fundamentals. Lastly, the domestic exchange rates behaviour responds to interest rates differential, domestic debt and political uncertainty when the exchange rate fluctuation is relatively stable. When the domestic exchange rates are appreciating, only the interest rate differential can explain the domestic exchange rates behaviour. Furthermore, the domestic exchange rates response is asymmetric to effects of expectations. Iqoqa. Indlela yokuhwebelana kwamazwe isihloko esihlaba umxhwele emibhalweni ethinta ezomnotho wonkana. Ngaphandle nje kobuningi bemibhalo ngesifundo, umnyakazo wokuhwebelana kwamazwe uhlala uyimpambankwici. Eminyakeni engama-40 eyadlula, osomnotho basungula izinjulalwazi ezihlose ukuchaza indlela entantayo yokuhwebelana kwamazwe. Kepha, imiphumela ebambekayo ibilokhu iyinhlalanjalo nokuqagela kwezinjulalwazi. INingizimu Afrika ibenazo futhi izinselelo mayelana nendlela yokuhwebelana kwamazwe kusukela ukuqala kwempi yokuqala yomhlaba. Emva kweminyaka, iziphathimandla zezezimali zazama izindlela ezahlukene ukungamela izimbangela ngokukholelwa kumthelela wokuhwebelana kwezwe namazwe. Inkinga enkulu yezwe mayelana nokuhwebelana kwamazwe bekuba yilokhu kwehla kwezinganani lempahla okuqhubekayo. Ukuhwebelana kwezwe namazwe kuyaqhubeka nokwehlisa izinganani lempahla. Kulolu cwaningo sisebenzise inqubo yokulinganisa ubudlelwane bezinto phakathi kwezomnotho wonkana oyisisekelo kanye nokuhwebelana kwezwe namazwe. Amasu okulinganisa asebenzisa okungenzeka ukuqagela izisusa zokusabalalisa okubili kube yinto eyodwa eyindlela yezwe yokuhwebelana namazwe. Ekuqaleni, isifanekiso sikaMarkov Switch esisetshenziswa ukunquma imiphumela yezilinganiso zendlela yokuhwebelana kwezwe namazwe. Sithole ukuthi indlela yokuhwebelana kwezwe namazwe iyagudluka ngenkathi ukuhwebelana kwamazwe okulindelekile kuguquka. Kube nje, sekusetshenziswa isifanekiso sikaBayesian Vector Autoregressive ukuhluza umthelela wokulindelekile mayelana nengeniso lakusasa eliphathelene nendlela yokuhwebelana kwamazwe. Ekugcineni, kwasetshenziswa isifanekiso iThreshold Autoregressive ukuthola indlela yokuhwebelana kwamazwe uma kusesifanekisweni sezezimali. Okokuqala, ucwaningo lwathola ukuthi ulwazi lwangasese olungaqashelwe lungenzeka lube namandla mayelana nendlela yokuhwebelana kwamazwe. Okwesibili, kwatholakala ukuthi okwakulindelekile okuyingeniso kwaba nomthelela endleleni yokuhwebelana kwezwe ngezikhathi ezithile. Bese kuthi kwezinye izimo, indlela yokuhwebelana kwezwe ingeze yamataniswa nalokho okuyisisekelo. Okokugcina, indlela yokuhwebelana kwamazwe iphendula ngokwehlukana kwezilinganisonani zenzalo, isikweletu sezwe kanye nokungabiko kwesiqiniseko kwezombusazwe ngesikhathi ukuhwebelana kwamazwe kunokuntengantenga nokuzinza. Ukuqhubekela phambili, ukuphendula kokuhwebelana kwezwe kunezingxenye ezingaxhumani nalokho okulindelekile. mkhaya wezilinganiso zokushintshiselana kwaba nemiphumela engalingani nokulindelekile.
The effectiveness of public health spending in Sub-Saharan Africa.
(2023) Kabongo, Wa Ntita Serge.; Mbonigaba , Josue.
This research conducted a thorough analysis of the effectiveness of public health spending (PHS) in enhancing population health outcomes (PHO) across sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Implementing PHS interventions in these countries faces challenges due to the disregard of critical intermediate factors that are specific to them. These factors include high prevalence of infectious diseases, inadequate immunization coverage, inefficiencies in the health system, governance issues, low levels of education, and underlying processes. Consequently, although the diligent allocation of financial resources towards enhancing health, PHO in the region persistently lag behind those of other global regions. This research aims to investigate the role of the above-mentioned intermediaries as transmission mechanisms of PHS and understand how these intermediaries interact with PHS to shape the effectiveness of PHS intervention. Moreover, the research assesses the benefits of using disaggregated data for measuring PHS. To achieve its objectives, the research employed panel data from selected SSA countries and applied several quantitative methodologies, such as longitudinal growth curve mediation modelling, partial least squares structural equation modelling, and system generalised method of moments. These approaches were chosen owing to the characteristics of the different processes investigated. The findings show that malaria incidence and female education, as indicators of infectious disease burdens and education, work sequentially as the transmission mechanism of PHS, while no indication of immunisation as a mediator was found. The findings also show that health system efficiency (HSE) and country governance are moderating factors in the PHS-PHO relationship, with weaker HSE or governance adversely affecting PHS effectiveness. Additionally, disaggregated data measuring PHS is shown to offer better evidence of PHS effectiveness. In conclusion, the research highlights the significant role of structural factors specific to SSA in shaping the effectiveness of PHS in improving PHO in the region. Its findings underscore the imperative of integrating these factors into the development of PHS interventions in SSA. The research provides invaluable insights into the complex nature of PHS effectiveness in SSA and proposes avenues for more targeted and impactful PHS interventions. Iqoqa. Lolu cwaningo lwenze uhlaziyo lokusebenza ngendlela kokusetshenziswa kwemali empilweni yomphakathi, ipublic health spending (PHS) ekuphuculeni imiphumela yempilo yoqoqobantu, ipopulation health outcomes (PHO) emazweni akwiSub-Saharan African (SSA). Ukuqalisa ukusebenza kokungenelela kwi-PHS kula mazwe kubhekene nezinselelo ngenxa yokunganaki izimo ezimaphakathi eziyingcuphe ezisondelene nawo. Lezi zimo zifaka ukuvama okuphezulu kwezifo ezithelelanayo, ukujova okungenele endaweni, ukungasebenzi ngendlela kohlelo lwezempilo, amazinga aphansi ezemfundo, nezinqubo eziyisisekelo. Njengomphumela, nakuba kunesabelo esihle semithombo yezimali ezophucula izimpilo, i-PHO esifundeni ilokhu isele ngemuva ngokungaguquki kulokho kwezifunda zomhlaba jikelele. Lolu cwaningo luhlose ukuphenya indima yezingeneleli ezibalulwe ngenhla njengendlela yokwedlulisa i-PHS nokuqonda ukuthi lezi zingeneleli zisebenzisana kanjani ne-PHS ukwakha ukungenelela ngempumelelo kwe-PHS. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ucwaningo luhlola izinzuzo kusetshenziswa imininingo engahlangene yokukala i-PHS. Ukufeza izinhloso, ucwaningo lusebenzise imininingo yephaneli emazweni akhethiwe ase-SSA kwase kusetshenziswa izindlela zokwenza ucwaningo lwekhwantithethivu, njengemodeli yokuxazulula ilongithudi, imodeli yomumozikwele ze-ikhwejini, nohlelo lwendlelakwenza ejwayelekile. Lezi zindlelasu zakhethwa ngokomumozici omayelana nezinqubo ezizophenywa. Okutholakele kukhombisa isehlakalo sikamalaleveva nemfundo yabesifazane, njengezinkomba zomthwalo wezifo ezithathelwanayo nemfundo, okusebenza ngokulandelana njengendlela yokwedlulisela izindlela ze-PHS, nakuba kungenankomba yokugoma njengoba kwatholakala isixazululo. Okutholakele kuphinde kwakhombisa ukusebenza ngendlela kohlelo lwezokwelapha, ihealth system efficiency (HSE) okubuswa kwezwe kuyizizathu eziguqulayo ebudlelwaneni be-PHS-PHO, ne-HSE entekenteke noma ukubusa okukhubaza ukusebenza ngendlela kwe-PHS. Ukongezo, imininingo engahlangene ekala i-PHS ikhombisa ukuletha ubufakazi obungcono bokusebenza ngendlela kwe-PHS. Ukuphetha, ucwaningo lugqamisa indima ebalulekile yezizathu zesakhiwo kwi-SSA ekuguquleni ukusebenza ngendlela kwe-PHS ekuphuculeni i-PHO esifundeni. Okutholakele kuveza okubalulekile ngokudidiyela lezi zizathu ekuthuthukiseni ukungenelela kwe-PHS e-SSA. Ucwaningo luhlinzeka imibono enzulu ngomumo ombaxa wokusebenza ngendlela kwe-PHS kwi-SSA bese luphakamisa izindlela zokungenelela okunenhloso nokunomthelela kwi-PHS.
Foreign capital inflows and trade openness nexus: the case of selected Sub-Saharan Africa countries.
(2023) Nthangu , Noel Damson.; Bokana , Koye Gerry.
The focus of the study was to investigate the relationship between foreign capital inflows and trade openness in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries. The research involved 31 countries of the SSA region. The study used unbalanced panel data from 1985 to 2018 from the International Monetary Fund, balance of payments yearbook and world development indicators. The first objective was to examine the relationship between foreign capital inflows and trade openness using a panel smooth transition regression model. The findings revealed the existence of a positive and significant bi-directional causality between foreign capital inflows and trade openness. This implies that the two flows are connected and therefore can exert a positive multiplier effect on each other. The second objective was to examine the socioeconomic determinants of foreign capital inflows. The study applied the random effect model (RE) and the dynamic model of generalised method of moment (SYSGMM). The findings showed that, real interest rate, real exchange rate, inflation, GDP growth rate and food security significantly impact on foreign capital inflows. The third objective was to investigate the impact of foreign capital inflows and trade openness on output performance. The researcher adopted the RE and the SYSGMM. The findings showed that FDI and FPI are statistically significant whereas, trade openness is not statistically significant to impact output performance. The study recommends that more steps should be taken to deepen interregional and regional economic integration in Africa, including the implementation of free trade agreements so as to promote trade and foreign capital inflows. Again, the governments of SSA countries that wish to attract more foreign capital inflows should improve on health facilities so as to increase life expectancy; ensure that there is food security; and improve the education system so as to increase the number of literates in the region. Lastly, an ideal bank for regional capital flow should be established subsequent to other banks, such as agricultural banks and banks of industries. This bank should be saddled with the responsibility of managing these investible funds and capital flow and channelling them to the appropriate sector for output performance monitoring.
Informal township businesses and socio-economic challenges: a case of South Africa = Izinselelo zamabhizinisi nenhlalomnotho yasemikhukhwini: ucwaningo lubhekiswe eNingizimu Afrikha.
(2023) Shezi , Sabelo.; Muller , Colette Lynn.
Most African countries continue to face challenges that negatively impact social wellbeing and the economy of the country such as unemployment, poverty, poor educational systems, gender inequality, income inequality, and poor health care systems. South Africa is no exception to these challenges and has recently faced another challenge, namely an increase in immigration. Immigration growth in SA has, inter alia, contributed to informal business growth in most townships in the country. Economic activities taking place in townships areas have an important role of ameliorating some of the existing socio-economic challenges for township residents. SA’s growth potential lies in promoting economic activities taking place in township communities. This thesis discusses the rise and nature of informal businesses across SA and within the Inanda, Ntuzuma and Kwamashu (INK) townships in relation to existing socio-economic challenges and provides insight into how informal businesses may help to ameliorate the socio-economic challenges citizens face. Using secondary data sourced from the Survey of Employers and Self-Employed for the period 2001–2017, a descriptive analysis was conducted to understand informal business activities and ownership nationally. Primary data was also collected (through a survey questionnaire) for the analysis of local versus foreign INK informal business ownership and activities, analysed through the descriptive analysis and multivariate econometric models (earnings regression model and probit model estimating improvement in standard of living of participants). The two econometric models were estimated on STATA software to determine how participation in INK informal business ownership and income generated may affect socio-economic conditions of participants. This study considers both aggregate information on the informal economy and micro level information through primary data collection and will therefore further the understanding of informal businesses on the ground, by permitting a level of questioning and information gathering that is not possible in the collection of aggregate data. Iqoqa. Amazwe amaningi ase-Afrikha asaqhubeka nokubhekana nezinselelo ezinomthelela omubi kuyinhlalakahle yomphakathi nomnotho welizwe njengomsebenzi, ukuhlupheka, uhlelo lwezemfundo olubi, ukungalingani ngobulili, ukungalingani kwamaholo kanye nohlelo lokunakelela ngezempilo olubi. INingizimu Afrikha ayikhishiwe ngaphandle kwalezi zinselelo, kamuva nje ibhekene nezinye izingqinamba njengokukhula kwesibalo sabokufika. Ukukhula kwezifikanamthwalo e-SA phakathi kokunye, inter alia, kube nesandla ekukhuleni kwamabhizinisi angekho emthethweni ezweni. Imisebenzi yezomnotho eyenzeka ezindaweni ezingamalokishi inomsebenzi omkhulu wokwenza ngcono ezinye zezingqinamba zenhlalomnotho ezivele zikhona kubahlali basemalokishini. Amandla okukhula kwe-SA alele ekuthuthukiseni imisebenzi yezomnotho otholakala emiphakathini yasemalokishini. Le thesisi ixoxa ngokukhula nobunjalo bamabhizinisi angekho emthethweni e-SA yonke emalokishini INanda, iNtuzuma naKwamashu (INK) mayena nezingqinamba zenhlalomnotho ekhona bese iletha ukuqonda ukuthi amabhizinisi angekho emthethweni angasiza kanjani ukwenza ngcono izingqinamba zenhlalomnotho izakhamizi ezibhekene nazo. Kwasetshenziswa imininingo yesigaba sesibili somthombo WeSaveyi Yabaqashi Nabazisebenzayo besikhathi esisuka onyakeni wezi-2001-2017, iSurvey of Employers and Self-Employed, uhlaziyo olucacisayo lwenziwa ukuze kuqondwe ngemisebenzi yamabhizinisi angekho emthethweni nobunikazi kuzwelonke. Imininingo yesigaba sokuqala yaqoqwa nayo (ngokusebenzisa uhlu lwemibuzo yesaveyi) ukuze kuhlaziywe imisebenzi nobunikazi bamabhizinisi angekho emthethweni kuqhathaniswa nemisebenzi namabhizinisi angekho emthethweni e-INK eyendawo kuqhathananiswa nawangaphandle, kuhlaziya kusetshenziswa ukuhlaziya okucacisayo namamodeli ohlaziyongxube lwezomnotho (imodeli yempindelamuva yemali engenayo nemodeli yenzuzo ehlawumbisela ukuthuthukiswa kwezinga lokuphila kwababambiqhaza). Amamodeli amabili ezokomnotho zahlahlawumbiselwa kuhlelokusebenza i-STATA ukusho ukuthi kungakanani ukubamba iqhaza lobunikazi bamabhizinisi angekho emthethweni e-INK nengenisomali eyenziwe ingaphazamisa izimo zenhlalomnotho zababambiqhaza. Lolu cwaningo lwabheka lolubili ulwazimvama emnothweni ongekho emthethweni nolwazi lwezinga elincane oluqoqwe emininingweni yesigaba sokuqala ngalokho luyoqhubela phambili ukuqonda amabhizinisi angekho emthethweni akhona, ngokuvumela izinga lokubuza nokuqoqwa kolwazi okungenzeki kumininingomvama eqoqiwe.
Health expenditure, health outcomes and productivity in sub-Saharan Africa: sustainable thresholds, moderation and forecasting.
(2023) Adegoke, Yetunde Oluranti.; George, Gavin Lloyd.; Mbonigaba, Josue.
SSA is known to be confronting distinctive health problems and growth challenges, thereby, inadequate health expenditure, poor health outcomes and their implications for productivity require investigation. This situation persists despite evidence-related policy produced in the past, suggesting the need to investigate further the nature of the relationship between interrelated variables. This study aims to investigate the nonlinear effect of PHE on health outcomes and the moderating role of education on health outcomes, forecast the performance of different PHE scenarios in achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), examine the effect of PHE and health outcomes on TFP and assess the moderating role of education in the relationship between PHE and TFP. The study utilizes various techniques including Panel spatial correlation consistent-ordinary least squares (PSCC-OLS and PSCC-FE) for Objective One, Feasible quasi-generalized least squares (FQGLS) for Objective Two. Fixed and random models, panel two-stage least squares (P2SLS), and panel threshold regression for Objective Three. System panel generalized method of moments (GMM) for Objective four. This study concludes a nonlinear relationship between PHE and health outcomes exists. Furthermore, the interaction of PHE and education would improve health outcomes. Second, an overall increase in PHE by 30% would achieve the SDG target of 70 maternal deaths in only Botswana, Namibia and South Africa. In addition, about 60% of the countries in SSA might be able to achieve the SDG target for child mortality by the year 2030. Third, including PHE and health outcomes into the TFP framework would guarantee a further increase in TFP growth in SSA, and a threshold level of PHE above 3.5% of the GNP could achieve better health outcomes and a further increase in TFP growth in SSA. Fourth, the interactive impact of PHE and education might cause an improvement in TFP in SSA. The study pioneers the investigation of nonlinear, threshold, moderating, forecasting and collaborative effect of PHE, the information is essential for optimizing, redistributing and utilization of resources, specifically, a minimum of 38 dollars per person will achieve better health and productivity in SSA.
Analysis of the dynamics of carbon pricing: the role of speculation in the Emissions Trading System (ETS) = Ukuhlaziywa kokushukumisa kwenani le-carbon: iqhaza elidlalwa ukuqagela endleleni yokuhweba ekhiphayo (ETS).
(2024) Isah, Kazeem Ovanero.; Adelakun, Ojo Johnson.
Purpose – To align with the global goal of keeping the temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius, a market-based policy initiative, the "Emissions Trading System (ETS)," is to mitigate climate change. However, the carbon allowances traded at the ETS are held and traded not only by polluting companies, but also emissions non-compliance financial firms. These financial firms though engage in speculation, there has not been any compelling evidence of the extent to which speculation matters in carbon pricing. To bridge this gap, this study is premised on three separate but related essays to: (i) determine the accurate framework for modelling the dynamics of carbon pricing; (ii) determine the extent to which speculation matters in the predictability of carbon pricing; and (iii) determine whether speculation undermines or benefits the emission reduction effect of carbon pricing. Methodology –We employ the GARCH-MIDAS econometric technique to test the hypothesis that an all-inclusive framework that reflects the emission compliance and emissions noncompliance dynamics of the ETS is the most accurate approach to modeling carbon prices. We also employ some verifiable econometric procedures to arrive at the Feasible Quasi Generalised Least Square (FQGLS) as the most appropriate estimator to address some of the biases in the predictability of carbon prices. Findings – A modeling framework that captures both emissions compliance and emissions noncompliance dynamics of the ETS is the most accurate to modeling carbon prices. We find that speculation is a good predictor of carbon prices. We find that both emission compliance and emission non-compliance dynamics of the carbon market matter for the emissions reduction effect of the ETS and for enhancing the accuracy of climate change forecasts. Research Contribution – The literature on emission trading has continued to ignore the speculative behavior of the emissions non-compliance firms in the ETS. As a result, we construct a composite news-based speculation index to simultaneously capture the emissions compliance and emissions non-compliance dynamics of the ETS in a single framework. We provide the literature with a data-driven framework upon which the predictive power of speculation is examined both in the predictability of carbon pricing and in the forecast of emission reductions. Iqoqa. Inhloso – Ukuqondanisa izinjongo zomhlaba zokugcinwa kwezinga lokushisa lingaphansi kuka-2 degrees Celsius, ukusungula inqubomgomo eyame ezimaketheni, Indlela Yokuhweba Ekhiphayo "Emissions Trading System (ETS)," ngenhloso yokulungisa ukuguquguquka kwesimo seZulu. Yize-kunjalo, inani lecarbon elihwetshiwe ku-ETS ligcinwa liphinde lihwetshwe yizinkampani ezenza ukungcola kodwa hhayi zona kuphela kepha nezinkampani zezomnotho ezingathobeli ukukhipha okungcolisayo. Le zinkampani zezomnotho yize zisebenza ngokuqagula, bebungakabibikho ubufakazi obuqandula ikhanda ngendlela abaqagula ngayo inani le-carbon. Ukuvala leli gebe, lolu cwaningo lweyame kuma-eseyi amathathu ahlukene kepha ahlobene nolokhu: (i) ukuqonda uhlaka oluqondile ukwenza imodeli yokwehluka kwenani lecarbon; (ii) ukuqonda ukuqagulwa nokulinganisa amanani ecarbon; kanye (iii) nokuqonda ukuthi ukuqagula kucekela phansi noma kuyalekelela ekunciphiseni ukuphipha ukugcola ngokukhipha amanini ecarbon. Indlela yocwaningo–Kusetshenziswe iGARCH-MIDAS econometric technique ukuhlola isihlawumbiselo sohlaka olufaka konke oluveza okusemthethweni ngokuphipha ukugcola kanye nokungalandeli umthetho wokukhishwa kokungcola okunhlonhlobo nge-ETS okuyiyona ndlela eqondile ukumodela inani le-carbon. Kuphinde kwasebenza izindlela eziqinisekisiwe ze-econometric procedures ukufinyelela kwiFeasible Quasi Generalised Least Square (FQGLS) njengesiqaguli esinembayo ukuxazulula okunye ukwenzelela ekuguleleni kwenani lecarbon. Imiphumela – Uhlaka lokumodela oluqukethe ukulandelwa komthetho wokukhishwa kokungcola kanye nokungalandelwa komthetho wokukhishwa kokungcola okunhlobonhlobo ku-ETS iyona ekahle kakhulu ukumodela amanani ecarbon. Kutholakale ukuthi ukuqagula yikho okuyisiqaguli esihle kumanani ecarbon. Kutholakale nokuthi kokubili ukulandelwa komthetho nokungalandelwa kwawo kokukhishwa kokungcola okunhlobonhlobo ezimaketheni ze-carbon ukwehlisa kokukhishwa kokungcola kumthelela weETS kanye nokuthuthukisa ukuqonda kokuqagulwa ngokuguquguquka kwesimo seZulu. Umnikelo wocwaningo –Imibhalo ngokuhweba ngokukhishwa kokungcola kuveza ukuqhubeka kokushawa indiva kokungalandelwa kwemithetho yokukhishwa kokungcola ezinkampanini ze-ETS. Kungakho-ke kugcine sekwakhiwa uhlobo olusha oluqondile lokuqagula ukuqoqa ngasikhathi sinye nokukulandelwa nokungalandelwa komthetho wokukhishwa kokungcola okunhlonhlonhlobo kwe-RTS ohlakeni olulodwa. Kube sekubakhona nemibhalo enemininingo elawula uhlaka olunamandla okuqagula, kuhlole ukuqagula kanye namanani e-carbon ukwehlisa ukuqagula kokukhishwa kokungcola.
Impact of fiscal consolidation on domestic government debt in South Africa 1979 to 2022.
(2023) Buthelezi, Eugene Msizi.; Nyatanga, Phocenah.
This study delves into the intricate dynamics of fiscal consolidation and its ramifications on government debt and economic growth within the context of South Africa. Employing a variety of methodologies and frameworks, it scrutinizes the efficacy of fiscal policy measures in curbing government debt while stimulating economic growth. Fiscal consolidation, characterized by cuts in government expenditures and tax increases, aims to alleviate debt burdens by reducing interest rates and fostering economic expansion. However, existing measures such as the Cyclical Adjusted Primary Balance (CAPB) face limitations in capturing the nuanced variations in fiscal policy effectiveness and thresholds. Addressing these shortcomings, this study utilizes innovative approaches including Time-Varying Parameter Structural Vector Auto-Regression (TVP-VAR), Threshold Autoregressive Regime (TAR), Markov-switching dynamic regression (MSDR), and Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) models. Key findings reveal significant fluctuations in CAPB elasticity over time, highlighting the need for dynamic measures in assessing fiscal policy impact. Thresholds identified through TAR deviate from conventional benchmarks, underscoring the importance of context-specific thresholds in fiscal planning. MSDR analysis uncovers distinct states of government debt, each eliciting varied responses to fiscal consolidation measures. Notably, while fiscal consolidation proves effective in debt reduction under certain conditions, its impact on economic growth appears nuanced. Policy implications highlight the importance of tailored fiscal policies aligned with South Africa’s economic. By discerning the intricate interplay between fiscal consolidation, government debt, and economic growth, policymakers can devise more targeted strategies to navigate prevailing challenges. This study advocates for a nuanced approach to fiscal consolidation, emphasizing the need for context-specific thresholds and dynamic measures to foster sustainable economic growth while mitigating debt burdens. Iqoqa. Lolu cwaningo luphenya ngemiphumela yokulungiswa kwezimali zesikweleti kanye nokukhula komnotho eNingizimu Afrika kusukela ngowe-1979 kuya kowezi-2022, kungeniswa izikali ezintsha zombundu. Ngezindlela ezahlukene, lubheka izingqinamba zomnotho ezibucayi, okubalwa kuzo isikweletu esikhulu sikahulumeni nokukhula okungaqondile komnotho kanye nokungabi bikho kwemigomo yezezimali ecacile. Imibuzo enqala ephenyiwe ihlanganisa ukunwebeka kokushintsha kwesikhathi seCyclical Adjusted Primary Balance (CAPB), ukuthola imibundu, kanye nomthelela ekukhuleni komnotho. Imiphumela iphakamisa isidingo samasu ezezimali aqanjelwe isimo ukwethula umthwalo wesikweletu bese akhulise umnotho. Ngokuhlaziya amamodeli ahlukahlukene, okubalwa kuwo iTime-Varying Parameter Structural Vector Auto-Regression (TVP-VAR) kanye neTwo-Stage Least Squares (2SLS), ucwaningo luveza obala ubukhephukhephu obucashile bokulungiswa kwezimali. Ikakhulukazi, lugcizelela ukubaluleka kokuqhela ezikalini ezinwebekayo ezingashintshi kuya ekunwebekeni obushintshashintsha nesikhathi ukuze kuhloleke ngokuqondile imiphumela yemigomo yezezimali. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ucwaningo lugcizelela ukubaluleka bokubuka isimo sesikweletu sikahulumeni wasekhaya uma kusetshenziswa izikali zokulungiswa kwezezimali. Imiphumela iveza imithelela ebalulekile yesimo semigomo yezezimali zaseNingizimu Afrika, ngokunikeza isibonisakusithe kubaqambi bemigomo ukuqamba amasu aqondene ngqo nokuhlosiwe futhi asebenzayo ahlose ekwehliseni isikweleti sikahulumeni ngesikhathi kuthuthukiswa ukugcineka kokukhula komnotho. Ngokubuka ubunkimbinkimbi bokulungiseka kwezezimali esimweni saseNingizimu Afrika, lolu cwaningo lwenezela ekuqondeni okunzulu kobukhephukhephu bomgomo wezezimali kanye nemiphumela yakho eminothweni esathuthuka.
Wellbeing in South Africa: regional economic disparities, conspicuous consumption, and the provision of infrastructure.
(2023) Mpungose, Sakhile Kieth.; Muller, Colette Lynn.; Dobreva, Ralitza Vassileva.
This thesis investigates the correlates of subjective well-being in South Africa, with a focus on the role of location, and specifically the impact of regional differences, conspicuous consumption, and access to public infrastructure in South Africa (SA). This thesis contributes to the body of welfare economics in SA by addressing three sets of aspects of well-being. The first of these (Chapter 3) is about individual differences in subjective well-being (SWB) across regions. This chapter makes use of five waves of the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) and the Quantac EasyData, corresponding to the NIDS waves. Using a combination of pooled ordered probit (POP), pooled ordinary least squares (POLS), and fixed-effects (FE) estimation, the overall finding from the first study shows that individual SWB differs across regions. Individuals located in urban district municipalities and economically thriving provinces report higher levels of individual SWB relative to individuals located in economically deprived regions. The second aspect (Chapter 4) examines the effect of conspicuous consumption by others on individual well-being. Using all five waves of the NIDS data, the findings suggest that, after controlling for comparator expenditure at the cluster and district level, conspicuous consumption by others at the district level decreases individual SWB after controlling for other important correlates of SWB. Also, it is worth mentioning that the findings differ depending on the proximity of the reference group. The findings suggest that individual SWB is negatively sensitive to conspicuous consumption by others that occurs in distant proximities, as opposed to close proximities. The third part (Chapter 5) examines the effect of access to public infrastructure on individual SWB. Access to infrastructure is measured by the distance individuals travel to the nearest educational, healthcare, and police service facility. Using data from the Living Conditions Survey (LCS) 2014/2015, the overall findings show that the effect of access on individual SWB differs across the various kinds of infrastructure facilities. Furthermore, long distances travelled to access public infrastructure pose a significant barrier for vulnerable segments of the population. Therefore, the government’s policy framework and commitment should be invigorated towards improving structural and systemic factors that hamper effective access to infrastructure. IQOQA Lo mbhalo wocwaningo uphenya ngenhlalakahle abantu ngabanye abazibona benayo eSouth Africa, ugxila endimeni edlalwa yindawo abahlala kuyo, ikakhulukazi umthelela wokwehluka kwezindawo, ukuthenga izinto ezibizayo kanye nokukwazi ukusebenzisa izingqalasizinda zomphakathi eSouth Africa (SA). Lo mbhalo wocwaningo unezela engqikithini yocwaningo olumayelana nendlela ukwabiwa kwemikhiqizo okuchaphazela ngayo inhlalakahle yomphakathi eSouth Africa (SA) ngokukhuluma ngezinto ezintathu eziphathelene nenhlalakahle. Okokuqala (Isahluko 3) kumayelana nokwehluka komuntu ngamunye endleleni achaza ngayo inhlalakahle yakhe, isubjective well-being (SWB) ezifundeni zonkana. Lesi sahluko sisebenzisa amahlandla amahlanu endlela yocwaningo olwaziwa njengeNational Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) kanye neQuantac EasyData, ehambisana namahlandla e-NIDS. Kusetshenziswa inhlanganisela yokuhlaziya imiphumela emibili, ipooled ordered probit (POP), indlela esetshenziswayo engavezi imiphumela ebonakalayo, ipooled ordinary least squares (POLS), kanye nendlela yokulawula uguquko, ifixed-effects (FE), kanti sekukonke okutholakele ocwaningweni lokuqala kubonisa ukuthi i-SWB ngayinye iyahluka ezifundeni ezihlukahlukene. Abantu abahlala komasipala bezifunda zasemadolobheni nasezifundazweni ezithuthukayo kwezomnotho babika amazinga aphezulu e-SWB yabantu ngabanye uma kuqhathaniswa nabantu abahlala ezindaweni ezintulayo kwezomnotho. Isici sesibili (Isahluko 4) sihlola umthelela wokuthenga izinto ezibizayo okwenziwa abanye okunawo enhlalakahleni yomuntu ngamunye. Kusetshenziswa imininingo eqoqwe kuwo womahlanu amahlandla e-NIDS, okutholakele kuveza ukuthi, ngemuva kokulawula izindleko zokuqhathanisa ezingeni leqoqo nelesifunda, ukuthenga izinto ezibizayo okwenziwa abanye esifundeni kuyayinciphisa i-SWB yomuntu ngamunye ngemuva kokulawulwa kwezinye izinto ezibalulekile ezinomthelela ku-SWB. Kufanelekile nokusho ukuthi okutholakele kuyehluka kuye ngokuthi asondelene kangakanani amaqembu okubhekiselwa kuwo. Okutholakele kuveza ukuthi i-SWB yomuntu ngamunye iyachaphazeleka nalapho abanye bethenga izinto ezibizayo ezindaweni eziqhelile, ngokungafani nasezindaweni eziseduze. Ingxenye yesithathu (Isahluko 5) ihlola umphumela okuba nawo ukufinyelela kuzingqalasizinda zomphakathi ku-SWB yomuntu ngamunye. Ukufinyeleleka kuzingqalasizinda kukalwa ngebanga umuntu alihambayo lapho eya ezikhungweni zemfundo, ezikhungweni zezempilo nasesiteshini samaphoyisa esiseduze. Kusetshenziswa imininingo evela kuhlolovo eyaziwa ngokuthi yiLiving Conditions Survey (LCS) 2014/2015, ingqikithi yalokho okutholakele iveza ukuthi ukufinyelela ezinhlotsheni ezahlukahlukene zezingqalasizinda kunomthelela ongefani endleleni umuntu ngamunye achaza ngayo inhlalakahle yakhe. Ngaphezu kwalokho, amabanga amade ahanjwayo ukuze kufinyelelwe kuzingqalasizinda zomphakathi ayingqinamba enkulu kubantu abantulayo. Ngakho-ke, uhlaka lwenqubomgomo kahulumeni nokuzibophezela kwakhe kufanele kufakwe umfutho ukuze kuthuthukiswe izakhiwo nezinhlelo ezikhinyabeza imizamo yabantu yokufinyelela kuzingqalasizinda.
Energy consumption and economic growth: evidence from African oil exporting countries.
(2022) Ogunsola, Akindele John.; Tipoy, Christian Kakese.
This thesis examines the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in a sample of African oil-exporting countries (AOECs). The group comprises Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Gabon, Nigeria and the Republic of Congo. The thesis presents three separate, but interconnected essays based on annual data on the period 1980 to 2018. The persistent energy consumption issues are ascribed to the failure of energy planners to understand the various macroeconomic factors that influence energy consumption. Therefore, the first essay in Chapter 3 investigates the factors influencing energy consumption, using the cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag and the cross-sectional distributed lag modelling estimators. These estimators consider the time dynamics and the heterogeneity of the different countries. Moreover, they are robust to cross-sectional dependence. The study explores the relationship between energy consumption and its major determinants, such as openness, economic structure and per capita income. The results reveal that openness has a positive and significant effect on energy consumption in AOECs during the period under study, while the economic structure has a negative and significant effect. The third variable of interest, namely per capita income, does not impact significantly on energy consumption. It is, therefore, recommended that these countries transform their economies structurally such that it will make economic growth more inclusive, driven by domestic value-added and not exogenous income from primary product exports. Most African net oil exporters are characterised by a unique paradox. They have low energy consumption despite their large energy deposits, and their economic growth rates are lower than both the global and African average. Hence, the second essay in Chapter 4 investigates the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. The study uses both linear and non-linear estimators. The study estimates a panel smooth transition vector error-correction model, which is robust to cross-sectional dependence and endogeneity and conduct a regime-wide Granger causality test. The study finds that the nonlinearities between the two variables are better explained whenever energy consumption is the transition variable. The Granger causality results show that in the short run, neither energy consumption nor economic growth causes each other in both low and high-growth regimes. In the long run, however, energy consumption Granger causes economic growth in high-growth regimes only. The economic growth variable, Granger causes energy consumption in both regimes. We conclude that a high economic growth rate drives energy consumption in AOECs. Consequently, it is recommended that conservation policies such as eliminating fossil fuels should be implemented efficiently, as they can hinder growth in the long run. A close connection exists amongst oil price shocks, energy consumption and economic growth. This connection has consequences for the growth of an economy. Using the Bayesian structural vector autoregressive model, the third essay in Chapter 5 analyses the impact of oil price shocks on energy consumption and economic growth. The study finds that the oil price shocks impact energy consumption and economic growth of all six AOECs. Conversely, the domestic variables of energy growth and economic growth does not impact oil price inflation. The unexpected variations in energy consumption impacts positive influence on economic growth in Nigeria, the Republic of the Congo and Gabon, whereas it is an inverse relationship in Angola, Egypt and Nigeria. The shock of economic growth leads to positive change in energy consumption in Angola, the Republic of the Congo, Egypt and Nigeria, but with inverse relationship in Algeria and Gabon. It is on this basis that we recommend the diversification of these economies to lessen the effect of external shocks in AOECs.
Monetary policy shocks and industrial production in BRICS countries.
(2017) Kutu, Adebayo Augustine.; Ngalawa, Harold Phellix Emmanuel.
This study investigates monetary policy shocks and industrial production in BRICS countries. The study is presented in four separate but related essays. The first (chapter three) employs a Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive model (𝑃−𝑆𝑉𝐴𝑅) to investigate how monetary policy shocks affect industrial output in BRICS countries using monthly data for the period 1994:1 to 2013:12. A nine variable 𝑃−𝑆𝑉𝐴𝑅 with short-run restrictions among the variables is constructed for the analysis. The study finds that variations in the exchange rate have the largest impact on industrial output in the BRICS countries. It is also observed that inflation rates significantly increase industrial output, peaking after about 11 months. This suggests that monetary authorities should be cautious when formulating policies aimed at reducing the inflation rate because of the spill over effect on industrial output. Further analysis reveals that interest rates have a marginal effect on exchange rates, while money supply makes a relatively large contribution to exchange rate fluctuations. Again, it is observed that changes in money supply exert a very large impact on variations in the rate of inflation. Thus, money supply plays an important role in curbing inflation. The study also analyses variations in interest rates, money supply and inflation and recommends that monetary authorities in the BRICS countries adjust interest rates, and not money supply, in response to inflation expectations. The second essay (chapter four) models exchange rate behaviour in the BRICS countries. This study examines global shocks and variations in the BRICS countries local currency/United States dollar exchange rate using the symmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) and Asymmetric Power Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (APARCH) models to determine the relationship between the two. The GARCH, EGARCH and APARCH are employed under normal (Normal Gaussian) and nonnormal (Student‘s t and Generalized Error) distributions. Using monthly exchange rate data covering the period – , the study finds that exchange rates in Brazil, Russia and India can well be modelled by the symmetric GARCH (1,1) model while in China, the three models perform well. In South Africa, the results of the three models also perform well but the EGARCH (1,1) model is found to be the best. Further analyses of the models reveal that the Student‘s t distribution produces better fit for estimating exchange rate variations and global shocks in BRICS countries compared to the Normal Gaussian and GED values under the nonnormal distributions. Overall, the study recommends that the BRICS countries should consider the impact of oil prices and global interest rates when formulating and implementing policies that impact on exchange rates. The third essay (chapter five) examines whether the five BRICS countries share similar business cycles and determines the probability of any of the countries moving from a contractionary regime to an expansionary regime. The study further examines the extent to which changes in monetary policy affect industrial output in expansions relative to contractions. Employing the Peersman and Smets (2001) Markov-Switching Model (MSM) and monthly data from 1994:01 – 2013:12, the study reveals that the five BRICS countries have similar business cycles. The results further demonstrate that the BRICS countries‘ business cycles are characterized by two distinct growth rate phases: a contractionary regime and an expansionary regime. It is observed that area-wide monetary policy has significantly large effects on industrial output in recessions as well as in booms. It is also established that there is a high probability of moving from state 1 (recession) to state 2 (expansion) and that on average, the probabilities of staying in state 2 (expansion) are high for each of the five countries. It is, therefore, recommended that the BRICS countries should sustain uniform policy consistency (monetary policy), especially as they formulate and implement economic policies to stimulate industrial output. The fourth essay (chapter six) investigates the long run and short run dynamics between industrial production and the factors affecting production in the emerging market economies of BRICS countries. Using the Chudik and Pesaran (2013) P-ARDL model and monthly data from 1994:01 – 2013:12, the study finds evidence of a cointegrating relationship between industrial production and selected variables. It is further observed that capital, labour, per capita income and exports have a positive long run impact on industrial production in the BRICS countries. However, a currency appreciation (an increase in the exchange rate) has a negative impact on industrial production. In the short run, it is found that imports, exports, exchange rates, labour, capital and per capita income significantly affect industrial production. The policy implication stemming from the analysis is that a sound economic policy is important for output production and industrialization in BRICS countries while poor policy will result in a nexus of constraints from which escape may be difficult (or impossible). The industrial sector, therefore, should also be listed as a sector that can actualize the diversification process and boost economic performance in the EMEs. There should also be policy consistence in curtailing the declining trend of industrial production.
Monetary policy shocks and economic growth in economic community of west African states.
(2022) Famoroti, Olesugan Jonathan.; Omolade, Adeleke.
An effective economic management is contingent upon the knowledge of how shocks emanate from monetary policy and other sources that affect the economy. This study examines the monetary policy shocks and economic growth in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), segregated into sub-regions of WAMZ and WAEMU. This is carried out under three related sub-objectives, using quarterly secondary data from 1980(1) to 2020(4). The first objective offers an empirical investigation into the determinants of the monetary policy rate in ECOWAS, considering both internal and external variables, using ARDL. The results revealed that in order to ensure long-run stability in the policy rate among the members’ states of ECOWAS, determinant variables including exchange rate, inflation rate and the gross domestic product should be given closer attention, so that the trajectory for potent structure can be designed and incorporated into the economic structure and policy frameworks accordingly. The second objective of this study employed a Panel Structural Vector for the modelling of monetary policy transmission shock in the region. The key results suggest that fluctuations of the monetary policy do not have significant effects on economic growth but significantly impact the general price level. Moreover, the study finds that the exchange rate is persistently a vital mechanism that significantly influences the variables of the real economy. Our estimates further suggest that there is idiosyncratic evidence found in the results, which is the anomaly of Price puzzle. Furthermore, this study used the Markov switching model for the third objective to investigate the impact of monetary policy shocks in two regimes of the business cycles in ECOWAS countries. The results show that the countries are having common business cycles. In addition, the study offered enough evidence that the monetary instruments are significantly more potent at contractionary than expansionary regimes. ECOWAS region appears to have a comparatively shorter business cycle than the developed countries. Hence, the design of policies by the monetary authorities in this region, aimed at shortening the duration of the contractionary period must be meticulously formulated to avert negative consequences of strict contractionary policy and ditto to expansionary policy.
Childhood and adult disability: impacts on education and the labour market in South Africa=Ukukhubazeka kwabantwana nabadala: Umthelela kwezemfundo nakwezemisebenzi eNingizimu Afrika.
(2022) McKenzie, Tamlyn Candyce.; Vermaak, Claire Lauren.; Hanass-Hancock, Jill.
Abstract Equal opportunities in education and the labour market are prioritised on the global agenda for people with disabilities. It is widely acknowledged that people with higher levels of education are more likely to find employment and to earn more compared to people with lower levels of education. Any negative impact on educational attainment during school-going years may result in long term labour market consequences in adulthood. People who are unable to access education, may fall into poverty and poverty makes people more vulnerable to acquiring disabilities. In addition, people with disabilities are less likely to participate in the labour market and if they do are more likely to be unemployed thus perpetuating this disability and poverty cycle. As a means of monitoring the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, an internationally recognised and comparable survey instrument designed by The Washington Group (WG) was incorporated into the General Household Survey (GHS) in South Africa from 2009. Very little academic research has been conducted in South Africa using the WG questions yet the White Paper on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities prioritises monitoring and evaluation through rigorous research. This thesis demonstrates the ways in which household survey questions on disability have evolved over time due to the conceptual changes from the medical model of disability to the social model and how these questions can be used to measure disability prevalence. Using the GHS and the WG set of questions, the thesis estimates how childhood disability is associated with school attendance and progression. The findings strongly suggest that children with disabilities, particularly those with more severe disabilities, are more likely to be out of school and when they are in school they are at least two years behind their peers without disabilities. For adults with disabilities the probability of labour market participation and employment is lower. In addition, there is a notable gap in earnings between people with and without disabilities. Severe disabilities (involving physical and cognitive impairments) have worse outcomes overall. Importantly, the results suggest that if people with disabilities are able to attain equivalent levels of education to their peers without disabilities, their labour market outcomes improve significantly. This study therefore demonstrates the vital importance of education and the need for education to be the primary focus of policy efforts for people with disabilities. Iqoqa Amathuba alinganayo kwezemfundo nakwezemisebenzi abekwa phambili ezinhlelweni zomhlaba wonke kulabo bantu abakhubazekile. Kuyinto eyaziwayo ngokubanzi ukuthi abantu abanezinga eliphakeme lemfundo banethuba elingcono ekutholeni umsebenzi nokuhola kangcono uma kuqhathaniswa nalabo abanezinga eliphansi lemfundo. Noma yikuphi okunomthelela ongemuhle ekutholeni imfundo ngeminyaka yokuya esikoleni kungaba nemiphumela enganambitheki uma umuntu esesebenza ebudaleni. Ngaphezu kwalokho, abantu abangakwazi ukuthola imfundo bangazithola becwile ekuhluphekeni kanti ububha benza kube lula ukuthi abantu bathole ukukhubazeka. Ukusebenzisa izibalomidanti ezibanzi zomphakathi kubalulekile ekukhuthazeni ukushintshwa kwenqubomgomo nokukhanyisela abenza inqubomgomo ngezinto ezidinga ukuqashelwa. Insizakusebenza yesaveyi eyamukelwa emhlabeni wonke eyakhiwa yiWashington Group yafakwa kwiGeneral Household Survey (GHS) eNingizimu Afrika ngonyaka wezi-2009. Imibono yongoti ebanzi eNingizimu Afrika igxilile ekuxhumaneni phakathi kokukhubazeka nobuphofu kanti ucwaningo oluxilonge imiphumela ngezemisebenzi alukaze lusebenzise imibuzo ngokweWashington Group. Lo msebenzi ukhombisa izindlela amasaveyi ngezamakhaya aseNingizimu Afrika angasetshenziswa ngazo ukuthola abantu abakhubazekile. Ngokusebenzisa iGHS, umthelela wokukhubazeka ekuyeni esikoleni nokuqhubeka emfundweni uyakwazi ukukaleka. Imiphumela yocwaningo iveza ukuthi abantwana abakhubazekile, ikakhulukazi labo abanokukhubazeka okukhulu, maningi amathuba okuthi bangasiqedi isikole kanti uma bekhona esikoleni basalele ngeminyaka emibili kontanga yabo abangakhubazekile. Kubantu abadala, abantu abakhubazekile banamathuba amancane okuzithola bebandakanyeka kwezemisebenzi, ukuqashwa nokuthi kube nemali abayiholayo. Ukukhubazeka okujulile (okusemzimbeni noma ngokuthikamezeka kwengqondo) kukhombisa isimo esibi kakhulu ngokubanzi. Kubalulekile okukhonjiswa yimiphumela kokuthi uma abantu abakhubazekile bekwazile ukuthola imfundo elingana neyozakwabo abangakhubazekile, imiphumela ngokwemisebenzi iyashintsha kakhulu. Lolu cwaningo ngaleyo ndlela lukhombisa ukubaluleka kwemfundo kanye nesidingo sokuthi imfundo ibhekelelwe ngokwenqubomgomo kubantu abakhubazekile. [Amagama asemqoka: Ukukhubazeka; Ezemfundo; Ezemisebenzi; Amasaveyi amakhaya]
Analysis of sexual and reproductive healthcare utilisation among young people in Zimbabwe.
(2020) Muchabaiwa, Lazarus.; Mbonigaba, Josué.
Despite the development and implementation of an adolescent and youth sexual and reproductive health (ASRH) strategic plan in 2010, Zimbabwe has the third-highest HIV prevalence amongst sexually active teenagers in Southern Africa. The country can potentially suffer future socioeconomic decline due to adverse health outcomes resulting from the current risky sexual and reproductive health behaviour among its youth and adolescents. The attainment of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) may be compromised owing to this predicament. The thesis analysed the utilisation of adolescent and youth sexual and reproductive health services and their outcomes in four essays. The first essay investigated the socioeconomic factors that influence ASRH service utilisation, the resultant outcomes and their distribution. The essay updated existing literature by providing recent evidence on ASRH specific socioeconomic determinants and their equity connotations, which has been lacking since the implementation of the ASRH strategy in 2010. The essay applied the logistic regression and concentration index techniques on the Zimbabwe Demographic Health survey (ZDHS) data. Findings revealed that inequalities favouring advantaged groups widened in STI treatment, HIV testing, STI treatment, as well as in condom and contraceptive use. Progress was made in early childbearing, which declined among the uneducated. Another positive development was the disproportionately higher HIV infection among females, which declined by almost half between 2005 and 2015. The second essay analysed the impact of the government’s ASRH strategy on the utilisation of ASRH services. The essay’s contribution was its quantitative insight into whether a multi-pronged approach or commitment of more resources results in better ASRH outcomes. The difference-in-differences impact evaluation technique was applied to ZDHS data collected in 2010 and 2015. Results indicated that service utilisation for HIV testing and treatment of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) increased. The ASRH strategy also reduced HIV prevalence. These impacts differed by education status and place of residence. Results also showed that provinces that received more resources did not attain better ASRH outcomes, suggesting that future focus should be on the quality of services. The third essay sought to characterise the risk preferences of youth. Its contribution lies in using prospect theory to fit youth risk-taking in the domain of sexual and reproductive health as a departure from the normally assumed expected utility theory. Primary data was collected from university students in Zimbabwe using a socioeconomic questionnaire and pairwise lottery choice tasks based on hypothetical ASRH interventions with uncertain outcomes. Prospect theory parameters were estimated using patterns of the respondents’ choices over the lottery tasks. This is the first study, to the researcher’s best knowledge, that estimates ASRH risk parameters within the prospect theory framework. Bivariate techniques, ordinary least squares and interval regression methods were used to examine socioeconomic differences in risk preferences. Results indicated that the ASRH behaviour of youth fits within prospect theory. Bivariate and multivariate regression analyses showed that income, prior sexual and reproductive health knowledge, and alcoholism were associated with risk and loss aversion. The fourth essay investigated the long-term consequences of ASRH practices from the female youths’ perspective as the hardest hit gender. The essay’s contribution lies in unearthing the magnitude of lifelong effects of failure to utilise ASRH interventions during adolescence, which is missing from Zimbabwean literature. The essay applied propensity score matching and multivariate regression techniques on ZDHS data collected in 2015. Findings revealed that non-utilisation of ASRH services leads to lower educational attainment, lesser chances of career development, poverty, as well as the contracting of STIs and HIV infections. Overall, these findings have several implications. Firstly, health policymaking must consider inclusive ASRH strategies that target currently excluded youths in rural areas, uneducated and poor households, and consider their unique risk preferences. In addition to that, future ASRH strategies should focus on service quality and increased coverage to improve outcomes and attain SDG targets. Secondly, the nature of youths’ risk preferences entails that ASRH awareness campaigns be positively framed to improve uptake of ASRH services. In addition to that, policymakers need to facilitate youth economic emancipation to increase economic prospects, which improves economic reference points that are critical facilitators of risk aversion. Lastly, future ASRH strategies need to have better coordination and monitoring since they involve different implementers. Furthermore, the ASRH strategy needs to be integrated into other sectors' goals that it impacts, such as education and labour.
Oil price shocks, exchange rates and output performance in Africa's oil exporting countries.
(2021) Rotimi, Mathew Ekundayo.; Ngalawa, Harold Phellix Emmanuel.; Kutu, Augustine Adebayo.
This thesis examines oil price shocks, exchange rates and output performance in a sample of Africa’s Oil-Exporting Countries (AOECs) (Algeria, Egypt, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria). Using quarterly data from 1980 to 2018, it is presented in three separate, but interrelated essays. The first essay presented in chapter three constructs a seven-variable Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive (PSVAR) model with the imposition of short-run restrictions to examine the oil price shocks transmission mechanism. In the same framework, trends in output growth and oil prices are examined and it is established that oil price shocks have statistically significant impacts on output and exchange rates in AOECs. The essay concludes that exchange rates is the channel through which oil price shocks are transmitted to the economy. It is thus recommended that stabilizing exchange rates is vital for sound economic performance in AOECs. The second essay which is presented in chapter four forecasts the AOECs’ exchange rates. Using quarterly data covering 1980 to 2018, it employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The regression is estimated using data from 1980-2015 and forecasting data from 2016-2018. The forecasting model, which uses various forecasting evaluation criteria, supports the suitability of the model to forecast exchange rates. Furthermore, the results show that forecast combination methods may have a good predicting power on exchange rates. Combined forecasting is therefore recommended as a way to achieve predictive forecasting accuracy in AOECs. Employing a Panel VAR model, the third essay investigates the asymmetric relationship between oil price and output. Using quarterly data from 1980 to 2018, oil prices are decomposed into positive and negative components to examine how output responds. The findings reveal an asymmetric relationship between oil prices and output. They show that, on average, positive oil price shocks positively impact output and this effect remains significant in the long run. The reverse is observed in negative oil price shocks. In terms of magnitude, the study finds that negative oil price shocks impact output at more than double the rate of positive oil price shocks. The results also reveal that low output in AOECs is associated with uncertain variations in oil prices and that an increase in oil prices results in increased inflation, which could result in higher levels of unemployment. This finding is associated with the inadequacy of refining capacity in the AOECs, causing them to import refined fuel at a high cost. It is thus established that the economies of the AOECs are vulnerable to negative oil price shocks that negatively affect exchange rates, while positive oil price shocks positively affect the cost of production. It is on this basis that the study recommends that AOECs should build sufficient external reserves to minimize the impact of negative oil price shocks on exchange rates.
Do competition regimes matter in international trade? a case study of the Tripartite Free Trade Area.
(2021) Dube, Cornelius.; Sibanda, Mabutho.; Holden, Merle Gwendoline.
This thesis assesses the importance of competition policy and competition reforms in enhancing regional and continental integration processes. While using the envisaged Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) as a case study, it assess competition reforms in the individual countries as well as bilateral trade flows between the countries that would become members of the TFTA. As strides are now being made towards continental integration, the role that competition policy adoption and enforcement can play in enhancing benefits from the integration remains largely unexplored. The thesis’s objectives were threefold. Firstly, it aimed to demonstrate the need for competition reform to be part of the discussions on regional integration at the level of the envisaged TFTA by showcasing how existing bilateral trade flows between the countries were influenced by competition reforms in the countries. Secondly, the study investigated whether the existing competition regimes in the countries that would form the TFTA reflect a general belief in competition policy. Thirdly, it aimed to assess whether changes in levels of economic development over time within the African context, as reflected by members of the envisaged TFTA, influenced decisions to tighten competition regimes. An index, the Competition Reform Index (CRI), which quantitatively measures the strength of competition regimes, was designed to assess the level of acceptance of the competition reform agenda among the countries constituting the TFTA. Such acceptance is inferred based on univariate methods, specifically how the levels of the mean CRI, the standard deviation of the CRI and the maximum CRI score, have evolved over time. CRI data for 23 countries over the period 1998 to 2018 is used for this purpose. The manner in which competition reforms impact international trade was estimated using panel data models, with a measure of the strength of competition regimes included among the explanatory variables. More specifically, the gravity models of international trade were estimated through random effects panel data models and Generalised Methods of Moment (GMM) models, using bilateral country exports and imports for countries that would be part of the envisaged TFTA. The estimation for the random effects and GMM models was over the period 2001 to 2016 across 20 countries1 that would all be part of the proposed TFTA. The extent to which adoption of competition reforms in the envisaged TFTA could have been the result of changes in economic performance in these countries was estimated using panel Granger causality methods, for 23 countries over the period 1998 to 20182. More specifically, the study estimated the extent to which changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) levels in the proposed TFTA countries Granger cause changes in the CRI. The mean score of the CRI shows that although only 20% of the countries in the TFTA have not yet embraced competition reforms, few countries have been subjected to high quality competition regimes for a long period of time. The standard deviation of the CRI reflects some attempts to improve competition reforms over time in the region, although only 44% of the countries in the TFTA have high quality competition regimes. This confirms earlier studies that showed that some competition laws were adopted among the countries in the envisaged TFTA, but were designed to ensure that other public interests are not compromised. The study established that tightening competition reforms in the exporting country, reflected in an increase of 1% in the competition reforms variable will, on average, result in bilateral exports increasing by between 0.1% and 0.16%, holding other influencing variables constant. However, if the importing countries increase their competition variable by 1%, an average short-run decrease of 0.46% in bilateral exports would be expected, holding other things constant. With respect to imports, the results show that bilateral imports among countries in the proposed TFTA will increase by between 0.07% and 0.18% if the exporting countries increase their competition reforms by 1%, holding other influencing variables constant. The findings from the Granger causality tests of panel data do not produce statistically significant evidence that there is short-run causality from GDP to CRI. However, in the long run, this relationship is statistically significant. There are three major implications of these findings. Firstly, there is still room for countries to improve their competition regimes and enjoy more benefits from regional integration within the envisaged TFTA. Second, competition reforms should be enhanced in a quest to promote regional competitiveness and ultimately, global penetration rather than bilateral trade within the TFTA. This is due to the fact that an increase in bilateral exports in the TFTA is only apparent if other countries are lagging behind in competition reforms. Thus, if all countries in the TFTA were to adopt competition reforms, this added advantage would be neutralised. Third, the absence of short-run causality between GDP and competition reforms implies that regulatory capture and vested interests, which are characteristic of countries with low levels of development, are no longer a significant obstacle in the TFTA. This is encouraging from a policy perspective, as efforts to promote competition reforms at regional level can be continued across all countries with little fear of country vulnerability to capture by business and other vested interests.
Financial stability and monetary policy in South Africa.
(2020) Dlamini, Lenhle Precious.; Ngalawa, Harold Phellix Emmanuel.
This thesis is presented in three distinct but related essays. The first essay (Chapter four) explores how financial stress interacts with monetary policy. Financial stress was measured using a time-varying financial conditions index constructed by Kabundi and Mbelu (2017) for South Africa employing thirty-nine monthly financial market variables and macroeconomic variables. The study employed a Markov Switching Vector Autoregression (MSVAR) model estimated with Bayesian methods to investigate this dynamic relationship. The findings reveal that interest rates respond negatively to a high financial stress shock, leading to an increase in credit growth. Despite the expansion of credit, real GDP growth increases marginally and then gradually declines. Given the complementary objectives of financial stability and monetary policy, it is concluded that monetary policymakers need to consider financial stability. Furthermore, the impact of monetary policy is not restricted to adjustments in interest rates; it affects other factors such as lending risk functions. The second essay (Chapter five) examines the interaction of housing-related macro-prudential policies and monetary policy. The study uses housing cycles in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with a small, open economy framework. We estimate the model with Bayesian techniques using South African data covering the period 2000Q1 to 2018Q4. The results indicate that monetary policy has negligible effects on house prices. We consider a loan-to-value (LTV) tool for macro-prudential policy. The results show that a one per cent rise in the LTV ratio, a tight macro-prudential policy, leads to increasing house prices, with significant effects on Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. The effects on CPI inflation suggest that monetary policy is not very effective. Efficient policy frontier analysis indicates that the introduction of macro-prudential policy yields an improved, effective outcome that lowers output and inflation volatility. The findings suggest that there is a need for coordination of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy. The third essay (Chapter six) investigates monetary policy and the role of countercyclical bank capital regulation in fostering macroeconomic and financial stability. We employ a DSGE model with a borrowing cost channel and endogenous financial frictions driven by bank losses, bank capital costs and credit risk. The study finds that a policy regime that combines an optimal Taylor rule and macro-prudential policies shows a clear trade-off between price and macroeconomic stability. The results emphasise the significance of the Basel III Accord in mitigating the output-inflation variability faced by the policy authorities, and questions the simultaneous deployment of an optimal Taylor rule.
Impacts of military expenditure and institutional quality on inclusive growth in BRICS countries.
(2019) Anifowose, Oladotun Larry.; Omolade, Adeleke.; Mukorera, Sophia Zivano Elixir.; Nyatanga, Phocenah.
This study investigated the relationship between military expenditure, institutional quality and inclusive growth in BRICS countries from 1970 to 2017. The increase in military expenditure by BRICS and the worsening inclusive growth indices such as unemployment, inequality, poverty, among others, necessitated the assessment of the relationship between military expenditure, institutional quality and inclusive growth in the BRICS countries. The study was carried out under three modular themes, which also form the objectives of the study, namely; the determinants of military expenditure, computation of inclusive growth index for the BRICS and the effects of military expenditure and institutional quality on the inclusive growth index of the BRICS countries. Panel data analysis was applied for the first objective, the Z-score technique was used for the second objective, which involved the computation of inclusive growth index for BRICS. The third objective was analysed using the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags ARDL for BRICS countries by using times series data. The results obtained on the first objective revealed that BRICS military expenditure was significantly and majorly determined by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), trade balance, security web and inflation rate for the period under analysis. The results on Objective 2 revealed that the average inclusive growth index for Russia was the highest among the five BRICS countries, followed by China and Brazil. However, South Africa and India fell below the average inclusive growth index computed for BRICS. The results on Objective 3 showed that the impacts of military expenditure and institutional quality on inclusive growth varied among the BRICS countries. From the literature, the most effective way of assessment is to focus on the impact of the interactive form of military expenditure and institutional quality. Findings revealed that the interactive form of military expenditure and institutional quality (MCP) only have significant impact on inclusive growth of Russia because the coefficient is positive and significant. The coefficient is negative and significant for China and South Africa while the same coefficient is not significant at all in Brazil and India. This implies that Russia is the only country in the BRICS where the interaction of military expenditure and institutional quality supports inclusive growth. Notwithstanding, other control variables such as education and population have statistically significant effects on inclusive growth in Brazil, China and South Africa. Results on India emerged as a complete outlier among the five as none of the variables, including the control variables was found to have a statistically significant relationship with inclusive growth. Again, the efforts in this study included a comparison of the inclusive growth results with those of economic growth and per capita income which have been used by previous studies to investigate the effect of military expenditure on the BRICS economy. The results showed that findings under the Inclusive Growth Model were the same for that of economic growth and per capita income for Russia, China and South Africa. However, there are some differences firstly; the negative effect of the interaction of military expenditure and institutional quality in Brazil which is significant on inclusive growth is not significant on economic growth and per capita income. This shows that the adverse effect of this variable was more felt on inclusive growth than economic growth in Brazil. Again, military expenditure and institutional quality showed a positive significant impact on India’s economic growth and per capita income, but the effect on inclusive growth was not significant. Finally, levels of investment in all the countries have shown significant positive impacts on economic growth and per capita income, but the current levels of investments in the BRICS fail to drive inclusive growth significantly except in Russia. These results further confirmed that assessment of the impacts of military expenditure and institutional quality using economic growth and not inclusive growth might be misleading. Based on the findings from this study, the following recommendations are made: First, there is the need for improvement of synergy between military expenditures and institutional quality before the challenge of inclusive growth in the BRICS can be tackled effectively. Second, prioritising inclusive growth more than economic growth is more germane to the assessment of the effectiveness of military expenditure.

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