Doctoral Degrees (Economics)

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Acting out the myths : the power of narrative discourse in shaping the Zimbabwe Conflict of Matabeleland, 1980-1987.
(2009) Stauffer, Carl Swarr.; Harris, Geoffrey Thomas.
This thesis interrogates the Matabeleland disturbances of 1980-1987 by analysing the conflict narratives promulgated by the ZANU-PF and how these narratives directly impacted the socio-political construction of violence that was enacted during that period. Of critical relevance is the interplay between the revolutionary narratives manufactured and imposed by the ZANU-PF regime and the myriad of contrasting, yet subjugated counter-narratives that were formulated as alternative resistances by the recipient communities. Through in-depth interview and document analysis methodologies, this research deconstructs the generative nature of scripted violence through the exploration of five salient themes employed by the ZANU-PF to produce its political meta-narrative: Ethnicity, Nationalism, Loyalty, Legitimacy and Unity. This study explores the power and function of narrative discourse in the formulation of ethnic identities, nation-state ordering, historical exclusion, political discipline, and social uniformity. The premise of this dissertation suggests that durable peace in Zimbabwe will only be realised to the degree that the silenced victims of the Matabeleland massacres are afforded a public voice and a sustained recognition in the historic, collective memory of that nation.
Adaptive market hypothesis and calendar anomalies in selected African stock markets.
(2019) Obalade, Adefemi Alamu.; Muzindutsi, Paul-Francois.
It takes a theory to beat a theory. However, whether the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) offers better explanations for stock return behaviour than the popular efficient market hypothesis (EMH) still remains a question for serious empirical investigation. This question informed the analyses of efficiency and calendar anomalies in the selected African stock market, namely the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGSE), the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), the Stock Exchange of Mauritians (SEM), the Casablancan Stock Exchange (MOSE) and the Tunisian Stock Exchange (TSE) with the sample period spanning from January 1998 to February 2018. The first objective of this study is to investigate whether market efficiency changes in cyclical version over time, according to the AMH. The second objective is to evaluate the effect of market conditions (up, down, bull, bear, normal) on return predictability. The third objective is to analyse whether calendar anomalies disappear and reappear over time. The fourth objective is to determine how the anomalies behave under different bull and bear market conditions. Various linear testing tools such as the variance ratio test, the autocorrelation test, the unit root tests and the nonlinear of BDS were implemented in rolling window approach to track time-variation in efficiency. A dummy regression model was used to evaluate the market condition effect on return predictability. This study also explored rolling window analyses of several alternative variants of nonlinear models of the GARCH family, to track variation in the behaviour of days-of-the-week (DOW), months-of-the-year (MOY) and intra-month effects. Lastly, the study modelled the switching behaviour of the calendar anomalies under bull and bear conditions by using the Markov switching model (MSM), which is able to generate regime-specific regression results for the calendar anomalies under consideration. Findings from the various linear and nonlinear tests revealed that there are cycles of significant linear and nonlinear dependence and independence in each of the five markets, suggesting bouts of predictability and unpredictability. The regression analyses of return predictability against series of market condition dummies revealed that highIt takes a theory to beat a theory. However, whether the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) offers better explanations for stock return behaviour than the popular efficient market hypothesis (EMH) still remains a question for serious empirical investigation. This question informed the analyses of efficiency and calendar anomalies in the selected African stock market, namely the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGSE), the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), the Stock Exchange of Mauritians (SEM), the Casablancan Stock Exchange (MOSE) and the Tunisian Stock Exchange (TSE) with the sample period spanning from January 1998 to February 2018. The first objective of this study is to investigate whether market efficiency changes in cyclical version over time, according to the AMH. The second objective is to evaluate the effect of market conditions (up, down, bull, bear, normal) on return predictability. The third objective is to analyse whether calendar anomalies disappear and reappear over time. The fourth objective is to determine how the anomalies behave under different bull and bear market conditions. Various linear testing tools such as the variance ratio test, the autocorrelation test, the unit root tests and the nonlinear of BDS were implemented in rolling window approach to track time-variation in efficiency. A dummy regression model was used to evaluate the market condition effect on return predictability. This study also explored rolling window analyses of several alternative variants of nonlinear models of the GARCH family, to track variation in the behaviour of days-of-the-week (DOW), months-of-the-year (MOY) and intra-month effects. Lastly, the study modelled the switching behaviour of the calendar anomalies under bull and bear conditions by using the Markov switching model (MSM), which is able to generate regime-specific regression results for the calendar anomalies under consideration. Findings from the various linear and nonlinear tests revealed that there are cycles of significant linear and nonlinear dependence and independence in each of the five markets, suggesting bouts of predictability and unpredictability. The regression analyses of return predictability against series of market condition dummies revealed that high predictability is associated with the bull, volatility and financial crisis periods, especially in NGSE, SEM and TSE and not in others. It suggests that the effect of market condition cannot be generalised for all markets. Further, rolling GARCH estimations showed that calendar anomalies disappear and reappear over time in line with the AMH. The evaluation of calendar anomaly under AMH provides a clearer picture of the behaviour of African stock markets as adaptive. Finally, the empirical results revealed that regime-switching is an important feature of calendar anomalies and that a calendar anomaly that is found in a bull regime tends to disappear or weaken in a bear regime and vice versa, depending on the market and the calendar anomaly in question. This study adds to the extant literature on the AMH in Africa and global markets. First, it shows that African stock markets are adaptive. Thus, it is more appropriate to describe African markets as adaptive markets rather than inefficient markets. Secondly, it provides empirical evidence of efficiency cum market condition in African stock markets. Thirdly, the study represents a timely contribution on calendar anomalies under AMH in African stock market. Fourthly, by evaluating DOW, MOY and HOM effects under AMH, this study extends the existing works on Monday and January effects in developed markets. Additionally, this study shows the usefulness of MSM in evaluating calendar anomalies under AMH.
Analysis of sexual and reproductive healthcare utilisation among young people in Zimbabwe.
(2020) Muchabaiwa, Lazarus.; Mbonigaba, Josué.
Despite the development and implementation of an adolescent and youth sexual and reproductive health (ASRH) strategic plan in 2010, Zimbabwe has the third-highest HIV prevalence amongst sexually active teenagers in Southern Africa. The country can potentially suffer future socioeconomic decline due to adverse health outcomes resulting from the current risky sexual and reproductive health behaviour among its youth and adolescents. The attainment of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) may be compromised owing to this predicament. The thesis analysed the utilisation of adolescent and youth sexual and reproductive health services and their outcomes in four essays. The first essay investigated the socioeconomic factors that influence ASRH service utilisation, the resultant outcomes and their distribution. The essay updated existing literature by providing recent evidence on ASRH specific socioeconomic determinants and their equity connotations, which has been lacking since the implementation of the ASRH strategy in 2010. The essay applied the logistic regression and concentration index techniques on the Zimbabwe Demographic Health survey (ZDHS) data. Findings revealed that inequalities favouring advantaged groups widened in STI treatment, HIV testing, STI treatment, as well as in condom and contraceptive use. Progress was made in early childbearing, which declined among the uneducated. Another positive development was the disproportionately higher HIV infection among females, which declined by almost half between 2005 and 2015. The second essay analysed the impact of the government’s ASRH strategy on the utilisation of ASRH services. The essay’s contribution was its quantitative insight into whether a multi-pronged approach or commitment of more resources results in better ASRH outcomes. The difference-in-differences impact evaluation technique was applied to ZDHS data collected in 2010 and 2015. Results indicated that service utilisation for HIV testing and treatment of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) increased. The ASRH strategy also reduced HIV prevalence. These impacts differed by education status and place of residence. Results also showed that provinces that received more resources did not attain better ASRH outcomes, suggesting that future focus should be on the quality of services. The third essay sought to characterise the risk preferences of youth. Its contribution lies in using prospect theory to fit youth risk-taking in the domain of sexual and reproductive health as a departure from the normally assumed expected utility theory. Primary data was collected from university students in Zimbabwe using a socioeconomic questionnaire and pairwise lottery choice tasks based on hypothetical ASRH interventions with uncertain outcomes. Prospect theory parameters were estimated using patterns of the respondents’ choices over the lottery tasks. This is the first study, to the researcher’s best knowledge, that estimates ASRH risk parameters within the prospect theory framework. Bivariate techniques, ordinary least squares and interval regression methods were used to examine socioeconomic differences in risk preferences. Results indicated that the ASRH behaviour of youth fits within prospect theory. Bivariate and multivariate regression analyses showed that income, prior sexual and reproductive health knowledge, and alcoholism were associated with risk and loss aversion. The fourth essay investigated the long-term consequences of ASRH practices from the female youths’ perspective as the hardest hit gender. The essay’s contribution lies in unearthing the magnitude of lifelong effects of failure to utilise ASRH interventions during adolescence, which is missing from Zimbabwean literature. The essay applied propensity score matching and multivariate regression techniques on ZDHS data collected in 2015. Findings revealed that non-utilisation of ASRH services leads to lower educational attainment, lesser chances of career development, poverty, as well as the contracting of STIs and HIV infections. Overall, these findings have several implications. Firstly, health policymaking must consider inclusive ASRH strategies that target currently excluded youths in rural areas, uneducated and poor households, and consider their unique risk preferences. In addition to that, future ASRH strategies should focus on service quality and increased coverage to improve outcomes and attain SDG targets. Secondly, the nature of youths’ risk preferences entails that ASRH awareness campaigns be positively framed to improve uptake of ASRH services. In addition to that, policymakers need to facilitate youth economic emancipation to increase economic prospects, which improves economic reference points that are critical facilitators of risk aversion. Lastly, future ASRH strategies need to have better coordination and monitoring since they involve different implementers. Furthermore, the ASRH strategy needs to be integrated into other sectors' goals that it impacts, such as education and labour.
An analysis of the extent, nature and consequences of female part-time employment in post apartheid South Africa.
(2009) Muller, Colette Lynn.; Posel, Dorrit Ruth.
International studies of part-time employment have shown that most part-time workers are women, and specifically married women (Rosenfeld and Birkelund 1995; Caputo and Cianni 2001). The ability to work part-time enables women who have household commitments, such as caring for children, to maintain an attachment to the labour force and to preserve job skills while also undertaking household labour (Long and Jones 1981; Rosenfeld and Birkelund 1995). In many countries, therefore, the growth in part-time employment has constituted an important component of the increase in women’s work. However, part-time jobs are often considered to be poorly remunerated, offering little or no security, limited opportunities for career advancement and few (if any) benefits (Rosenfeld and Birkelund 1995; Rodgers 2004; Hirsch 2005; Bardasi and Gornick 2008). Although empirical research on South Africa’s labour markets has expanded significantly over the post-apartheid period, particularly with the introduction of nationally representative household surveys that capture individual employment data, little is known about the characteristics of South African part-time workers, or about the nature of the work these individuals perform. Using data from a selection of South Africa’s nationally representative household surveys, namely the October Household Surveys, the Labour Force Surveys and the Labour Force Survey Panel, this thesis aims to redress this lacuna. The thesis comprises four empirical chapters. The first chapter outlines the definition of part-time employment adopted throughout the study, and it presents gendered trends in part-time employment in South Africa from 1995 to 2006. The descriptive analysis shows that most part-time workers in South Africa are women, and further, that the growth in female part-time employment has been an important part of the feminisation of the labour force in South Africa. The second chapter compares part-time and full-time wage (salaried) employment. The main analytical question addressed in this chapter is whether women are penalised for working part-time. Although hourly wages in part-time employment are, on average, lower than in full-time employment, the study demonstrates that after controlling for differences in observable and unobservable characteristics, women in part-time employment receive a wage premium. The third chapter explores heterogeneity among part-time wage workers, distinguishing between women who choose to work part-time and women who report wanting to work longer hours. Key findings of this chapter are that a wage premium persists for women both in voluntary and in involuntary part-time work; but that involuntary part-time workers have a stronger labour force attachment than voluntary part-time workers. The fourth chapter uses the distinction between part-time and full-time employment to investigate changes in the gender wage gap in employment. The results show that the total gender gap in wages among part-time and full-time workers has fallen over the years, with the greatest reduction visible for those working part-time. The final chapter summarises the main findings of the thesis and it outlines avenues for further research on part-time employment in South Africa.
Analysis of the impact of foreign aid on economic growth in COMESA.
(2020) Gondwe, Grace.; Mbonigaba, Josué.
The Common Market for East and Southern Africa (COMESA) was officially established in 1994. Its primary objective was to help its member states attain sustainable economic growth and development through regional integration and trade. In this regard, the region’s specific goals encompassed: (a) comparable and balanced development of human capital, production and market structures in its respective member countries. (b) harmonization of the individual economic and trade policies among its member countries in line with its collective regional growth and development goals. Among the tools for the realisation of these goals, is a coherent and consistent development financing plan for the essential investments across its sectors. Accordingly, focusing on the region’s core objective of economic growth, this study empirically investigated how foreign aid, as one of the region’s vital development financing resource has influenced economic growth in the respective COMESA countries. Contrary to the existing literature, this thesis adopted a comprehensive approach that encompassed aggregate and sectoral implications of aid receipts in the region without undermining the role of the factors affecting its utilization as mostly discussed in the literature. From the political economy perspective, recent debates on Africa’s inclusive and sustainable growth have focused on structural transformation as a critical priority in transforming its development platform. Based on these debates, the thesis focused on two crucial sectors for comprehensive econometric assessments of direct and indirect effects of sectoral aid on growth. For direct effects of aid on growth, the work chose the agricultural sector, which continues to sustainably support the region’s structural transformation process through the provision of at least 50% of the raw materials to the industrial sector. The agricultural sector also supports livelihoods of at least 60% of the region’s population. For indirect effects, the thesis selected economic infrastructure as a critical enabler of effective backward and forward linkages between the agricultural sector and the industrial/ service sectors. This comprehensive assessment was therefore accomplished firstly by assessing the extent to which the received aid volumes in the respective COMESA countries consistently closed their overall and specific sectoral development financing gaps. Trends analysis of aid and economic growth performance showed that foreign aid is the dominant source of foreign capital, accounting for an average of 60 percent of the development financing gaps annually in COMESA countries. Although better growth performances were expected among aid recipients, erratic growth rates below the 7% minimum stipulated in the Sustainable Development Goals are widespread across the countries. Aid volatility and misalignment of iv the aid allocations across (within) sectors and among countries compromise the potency of aid in the region. Incidences of foreign aid receipts over and above the estimated external development financing gaps are partially due to the large share of humanitarian assistance in some countries. However, they also imply a lack of systematic assessment of the region’s development financing needs, particularly in countries whose public investments were fully covered by domestic resources yet these countries received foreign aid. Furthermore, sectoral prioritization in favour of non-growth enhancing consumption, mostly in the social sectors, may be redundant as far as growth is concerned. In this regard, the thesis recommends a joint donor-recipient country financing needs and COMESA-wide capacities assessments for effective targeting to improve growth outcomes of aid. This approach to development financing will be more effective if accompanied by policies that focus on strengthening domestic institutions and increasing domestic resource mobilization. Secondly, contending for comparable impacts of aid across the countries in the region for the attainment of unified regional growth and development goals, Chapter 5 assessed how the received aid affected growth in the respective countries using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator. The thesis found that although aid had a significant positive impact on growth in the short run, its long-term effect was negative. The results show that the long-term impact of grants on growth is positive and significant, while the net effect of loans on growth was negative and significant. In line with the visible adverse effects of corruption on aid utilization in the short run in most countries, the results show that corruption has a net negative impact on the utilization of loans and grant. Accordingly, the short-run effects of loans and grants varied significantly among the countries in the region, potentially reflecting which component of aid is mostly affected by their respective weak institutions. Overall, the results show thart the potency of total foreign aid is equally compromised by corruption in the long term . Furthermore, Chapter 5 found that domestic savings have a positive effect on growth both in the short and long run. Therefore, the chapter postulates better outcomes from aid if COMESA effectively addresses corruption in all its member countries. This should be complemented with policies and strategies that focus on effectively increasing domestic revenue (savings) to further enhance their growth outcomes complemented with foreign aid. Lastly, rationalisation of the region’s exports to enhance their competitiveness remains imperative if the exports are to productively contribute to its regional growth goals. v Thirdly, Chapter 6 analysed the impact of agricultural foreign aid on agricultural productivity and growth in a Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) framework. The chapter finds a significant unidirectional causality from agricultural growth to foreign aid and thus confirming the theoretical dispositions of the developmental role of foreign aid. However, instead of complementing domestic resources in this regard, the results showed that foreign aid in the sector substitutes government financing, which effectively reduces its effectiveness. A mismatch in government resources and aid allocations to a sub-sector erodes the synergy that should typically exist between donor aid and government expenditure in a sector. This mismatch implies that a policy shift towards Result-Based (Aid on Delivery) approaches in aid disbursements will be critical to eliminating fungible resources. Misalignment of aid allocations with the respective sub-sectoral relative importance in the sectoral development goals was further found to undermine the potency of aid in the sector. Accordingly, the thesis contends for a better understanding of the role various sub-sectors play to the overall growth of the agriculture sector. This understanding will be crucial for equitable resource allocation and enhanced aid effectiveness. Moreover, the higher impact of domestic resources compared to foreign aid calls for policies to increase domestic resource mobilization and a broader focus on reducing aid. Lastly, the thesis assessed the contribution of foreign aid to the region’s infrastructure development in Chapter 7. Using the Blundell-Bond (BB) system Generalised Methods of Moments, the paper found that foreign aid has a net negative effect on infrastructure development mainly because of corruption which increases the cost of its loans. Although the results shows that corruption does not affect net utilization of grants, the regional effect of grants on infrastructure development negative. Notably, grants have been steadily declining since 2009 (Figure 3). Overall, the chapter shows the potential that loans have in turning around the infrastructure deficit in the region, particularly if corruption is effectively addressed in all the COMESA countries. Thus, the chapter concludes that unless COMESA countries effectively addresses corruption, it cannot adequately close its infrastructure gaps and cannot enhance its growth with foreign aid. With the highlighted positive and significant impact of domestic resources on infrastructure development in its core model, the chapter further recommends the exploring of other avenues of revenue for closing the infrastructure gaps. This examination will be beneficial in fast-tracking infrastructure development and enhance economic growth in the region. vi Overall, notwithstanding the comparable short-run positive effects of aid on growth across the countries in the region, the research failed to conclude that foreign aid positively contributes to the region’s long- term sustainable growth and development objective. While it marginally enhances productivity and growth of its core growth sector, foreign aid in the region has failed to bring about the desired changes in the growth-enhancing support sectors (economic infrastructure and social sectors). High levels of corruption in some of its member countries, which potentially lead to unnecessary increases in the overall financial costs of its loans, undermines the potency of foreign aid. Similarly, the substitution effect of aid on domestic resources further compromise the performance of foreign aid in the region. In this regard, “aid on delivery” (result based) approaches remain the best policy option to effectively eliminate fungible resources in all countries in the region. Furthermore, poor alignment of aid to the respective development financing gaps both across (within) sectors and countries is vital in accounting for aid inefficiency in enhancing the region’s growth. On the one hand, there is evidence of the lack of systematic assessment on the part of the region’s development partners (donors) to properly align aid to the region’s development financing gaps as reflected by episodes of aid over and above existing development financing gaps. While the large component of humanitarian aid in some of the countries in the region comprehensively explains this mismatch, it does not provide enough explanation about other countries in the region, including those whose investments were fully covered by domestic resources in the presence of aid receipts. On the other hand, poor sectoral prioritization of the received aid across the countries in favour of non-growth enhancing consumption, mostly in the social sectors, is redundant for the attainment of its growthenhancing objectives. In this regard, a thorough understanding of the region’s development financing needs and capacities to ensure the right targeting and effective utilization of both foreign aid and domestic resources remains imperative. Enhancing domestic resource mobilization will further be beneficial in reducing aid dependency in the region.
The association system of the European Economic Community and its impact on international trade policies.
(1974) Matthews, Jacqueline Désirée.; van Waasdijk, T.; Trotter, George Jameson.
No abstract.
Building human security in Ituri Province, Democratic Republic of Congo.
(2010) Mugisa, John Mwesigwa.; Harris, Geoffrey Thomas.
Armed conflict in Ituri since 1996 to the present day has resulted in the widespread and severe violation of human rights that include massive killings, rape, torture, mutilation and property destruction that has infringed peace and security in the province. Many studies on Ituri armed conflict point out land, minerals and identity as underlying causes of this social breakdown that lead to continued insecurity in Ituri. While acknowledging that there are many things that threaten the lives of individuals in times of war, this study focuses exclusively on the perceptions of the people from Ituri about the meaning and threats to peace and security as well as building human security in the province. To investigate these perceptions, I use the concept of human security which is a new way of thinking about peace and security. Although, this concept has a broad meaning, I mostly focus on its components that promote the protection of civilians against severe and widespread threats and as a people-centred approach, it advocates for the responsibility to protect civilians by their governments and the international community while the latter is given the full mandate by the UN, through its Security Council to intervene in countries whereby, governments are the perpetrators of violence on its own civilians or whereby governments are unable to contain violence perpetrated by warring fractions on innocent civilians and causing the displacement of millions from their home. I used a qualitative approach that sought to obtain as many as possible the views of participants which in turn were described thoroughfully so as to obtain patterns and themes that explain exactly what participants think is the meaning of peace and security and what could be the possible threats that make them feel insecure. To reach my goal, I used participant observation, focus group and semi-structured interview methods. 105 participants were selected randomly to participate in the research, that is, 94 in focus groups and 11 in semi-structured interviews. An additional 31 participants were also interviewed in Johannesburg to validate the data collected previously. Content analysis was used to analyse data. The study finds that there are various meanings to security and that threats to peace and security depend on the kind of meanings that people from Ituri perceive to be the meaning of security. The meaning of security depends on the context in which people live. Both victims and perpetrators ‘should’ work towards the achievement of peace and security. From the findings, it was concluded that the international community should not play both arsonist and fireman roles, rather engaging honestly and sincerely in building peace and security in the province of Ituri. This may lead to sustainable peace and security in the province.
Building more peaceful gender relationships in South Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of Congo.
(2012) Mulumeoderhwa, Maroyi Willy.; Harris, Geoffrey Thomas.
The objective of this study is to understand the attitudes and behaviour of young South Kivu men towards women in order to encourage the development of more peaceful attitudes and behaviour. This study provides insights from an urban and rural young male perspective into attitudes, behaviour, and context within which violence against women occurs. The study also included urban and rural young females to understand their perspectives and experiences on male – perpetrated violence within relationships. This study examines men‟s and women‟s gender roles and relationship norms, attitudes and beliefs in the context of ongoing relationships and marriage. While investigating the culture of sexual violence, it is shown that the construction of young people‟s attitude and behaviour is certainly influenced by social, cultural, political and economic factors and these factors have also implications for the ways in which heterosexual relationships are constructed and narrated. A curriculum is developed, based on the study‟s findings for use in secondary schools.
Business cycles, fiscal policy and monetary integration in Southern African Development Community.
(2018) Nzimande, Ntokozo Patrick.; Ngalawa, Harold Phellix Emmanuel.
This thesis investigated the selected macro-monetary topics in the Southern African Development Community (SADC). The thesis is presented in three distinct but related essays. The rst essay (Chapter 2) examines the extent to which business cycles are synchronised in the SADC area using a dynamic factor model which separates idiosyncratic shocks from common shocks (regional common shocks). Countries are said to be synchonised if regional common shocks explain a large variance of withincountry business cycles. Conversely, if a large variance of within-country business cycles is accounted for by idiosyncratic shocks then countries are said not to be synchronised. The study results have in-depth rami cations for the proposed SADC monetary union. If business cycles are synchronised, it implies that provided that other conditions for establishing a monetary union are satis ed, the use of a single monetary policy may be optimal. Put di erently, if business cycles are driven by common shocks then the use of a mutual monetary policy is warranted. The results of the study show that the regional common factor is important for some countries, and not for others. More precisely, it was discovered that regional common shocks signi cantly explain most within-country business cycles in Botswana, South Africa, Malawi, Tanzania, Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, and Swaziland, suggesting that a shared monetary policy could be considered among these countries. In addition, the study demonstrated that idiosyncratic shocks play little or no signi cant role in explaining within-country business cycles for most countries considered in the sample. Idiosyncratic factors are found to be signi cant only in Malawi, and Seychelles. The important nding emerging from the study results is that, based only on the business cycles synchronisation condition, a monetary union encompassing all SADC member countries would not be optimal. The second essay (Chapter 3) examines the endogeneity hypothesis in the context of the SADC area. In particular, a Generalised Method of Moments is used to similarity, and exogenous factors on the extent to which SADC member states are synchronised. Panel data covering the period 2000 to 2016 is used to conduct the analysis. The study results show that trade integration positively affects business cycles synchronisation, suggesting that promoting/or stimulating intra-SADC trade could possibly result to intensified business cycles co movement in the bloc. In addition, the study results show that macroeconomic policies' similarity (that is both monetary and fiscal policies) exerts sanguine and statistically significant effect on business cycles synchronisation. It was found that oil price changes have a decoupling effect on regional business cycles. This could be explained by the fact that, in the SADC region, some countries are net oil importers while other are net oil exporters. Thus, the effect of oil movements depends on whether a country is a net importer, or net exporter of oil. While a monetary union entails benefits to member states, it comes at the 'expense' of the independence to alter monetary policy tools in order to deal with country-specific business cycles. Hence, for union members, fiscal policy becomes the only policy recourse available to deal with idiosyncratic macroeconomic disturbances/ or to mitigate conflicts over a preferred monetary policy. Therefore, fiscal policy sustainability is crucial for the functioning of a monetary union. Unsustainable fiscal policies may neither be a mechanism, nor effective tool for dealing with country-specific disturbances, thus threatening the stability of a monetary union. Hence, the third essay (Chapter 4) of this thesis examines the sustainability of fiscal policies in the SADC region using Bohn's (1998) fiscal policy reaction function. In particular, we employ dynamic panel models (that is, panel mean group, mean group, and dynamic fixed effects) to evaluate the response of government revenues to changes in public expenditures. Using data covering the period 1990-2016, the findings of the study reveal that public revenues positively react to changes in government expenditures. Thus, fiscal policies, in the SADC area, are found to be sustainable. However, the reaction coefficients are less than a unity, implying that investigate the role of trade intensity, financial integration, macroeconomic policy fiscal policies are 'weakly' sustainable. Therefore, we argue that SADC governments may face difficulties in marketing their debt in the future.
Capital flow volatility, financial deepening and capital market performance in low-income countries.
(2018) Mamvura, Kuziva.; Sibanda, Mabutho.; Rajaram, Rajendra.
This study sheds light on the sources and impact of foreign capital flow volatility and its directional linkages with financial deepening and capital market performance in low-income Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. It employs decomposed quarterly data on net foreign capital flows for a period spanning 16 years from 2000 to 2015. Decomposed net capital flows capture the dynamics of both inflows and outflows while taking domestic and foreign investors’ contribution to the dynamics of capital flow volatility into account. The study is unique in that it uses contemporary panel data regression methods to investigate the behavior of capital flow volatility, financial deepening and capital market performance in low-income SADC countries. Firstly, the panel autoregressive distributed lag (P-ARDL) model reveals that both portfolio flow and remittance flow volatility are significantly determined by domestic price level, money supply, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and interest rates. Global GDP significantly affects portfolio volatility but has no significant effect on remittance volatility. Only domestic and global interest rates are negatively related to remittance and portfolio volatility in these economies. Secondly, the panel vector error correction model (P-VECM) investigation reveals a bi-directional relationship between remittance flow volatility and financial deepening and also indicates a one-way causal relationship from portfolio flow volatility to financial deepening. Finally, the panel vector auto regression (P-VAR) model finds that global shocks are rapidly transmitted to the domestic economy and not vice versa. Shocks in portfolio volatility account for significant variations in money supply and lead to a decline in general price levels from the short run to the long run. Additionally, changes in remittance volatility impact directly and significantly on domestic interest rates and consumer price levels. Remittance volatility impacts positively on real GDP while portfolio volatility exert negative pressure in SADC countries. In order to achieve stable and constant capital flows, policy makers should adopt programs that lead to financial growth, price and interest rate stability. Given the paucity of macro-financial studies on the region, the study provides meaningful empirical evidence on the behavior and impact of portfolio and remittance flows in low-income SADC countries.
Childhood and adult disability: impacts on education and the labour market in South Africa=Ukukhubazeka kwabantwana nabadala: Umthelela kwezemfundo nakwezemisebenzi eNingizimu Afrika.
(2022) McKenzie, Tamlyn Candyce.; Vermaak, Claire Lauren.; Hanass-Hancock, Jill.
Abstract Equal opportunities in education and the labour market are prioritised on the global agenda for people with disabilities. It is widely acknowledged that people with higher levels of education are more likely to find employment and to earn more compared to people with lower levels of education. Any negative impact on educational attainment during school-going years may result in long term labour market consequences in adulthood. People who are unable to access education, may fall into poverty and poverty makes people more vulnerable to acquiring disabilities. In addition, people with disabilities are less likely to participate in the labour market and if they do are more likely to be unemployed thus perpetuating this disability and poverty cycle. As a means of monitoring the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, an internationally recognised and comparable survey instrument designed by The Washington Group (WG) was incorporated into the General Household Survey (GHS) in South Africa from 2009. Very little academic research has been conducted in South Africa using the WG questions yet the White Paper on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities prioritises monitoring and evaluation through rigorous research. This thesis demonstrates the ways in which household survey questions on disability have evolved over time due to the conceptual changes from the medical model of disability to the social model and how these questions can be used to measure disability prevalence. Using the GHS and the WG set of questions, the thesis estimates how childhood disability is associated with school attendance and progression. The findings strongly suggest that children with disabilities, particularly those with more severe disabilities, are more likely to be out of school and when they are in school they are at least two years behind their peers without disabilities. For adults with disabilities the probability of labour market participation and employment is lower. In addition, there is a notable gap in earnings between people with and without disabilities. Severe disabilities (involving physical and cognitive impairments) have worse outcomes overall. Importantly, the results suggest that if people with disabilities are able to attain equivalent levels of education to their peers without disabilities, their labour market outcomes improve significantly. This study therefore demonstrates the vital importance of education and the need for education to be the primary focus of policy efforts for people with disabilities. Iqoqa Amathuba alinganayo kwezemfundo nakwezemisebenzi abekwa phambili ezinhlelweni zomhlaba wonke kulabo bantu abakhubazekile. Kuyinto eyaziwayo ngokubanzi ukuthi abantu abanezinga eliphakeme lemfundo banethuba elingcono ekutholeni umsebenzi nokuhola kangcono uma kuqhathaniswa nalabo abanezinga eliphansi lemfundo. Noma yikuphi okunomthelela ongemuhle ekutholeni imfundo ngeminyaka yokuya esikoleni kungaba nemiphumela enganambitheki uma umuntu esesebenza ebudaleni. Ngaphezu kwalokho, abantu abangakwazi ukuthola imfundo bangazithola becwile ekuhluphekeni kanti ububha benza kube lula ukuthi abantu bathole ukukhubazeka. Ukusebenzisa izibalomidanti ezibanzi zomphakathi kubalulekile ekukhuthazeni ukushintshwa kwenqubomgomo nokukhanyisela abenza inqubomgomo ngezinto ezidinga ukuqashelwa. Insizakusebenza yesaveyi eyamukelwa emhlabeni wonke eyakhiwa yiWashington Group yafakwa kwiGeneral Household Survey (GHS) eNingizimu Afrika ngonyaka wezi-2009. Imibono yongoti ebanzi eNingizimu Afrika igxilile ekuxhumaneni phakathi kokukhubazeka nobuphofu kanti ucwaningo oluxilonge imiphumela ngezemisebenzi alukaze lusebenzise imibuzo ngokweWashington Group. Lo msebenzi ukhombisa izindlela amasaveyi ngezamakhaya aseNingizimu Afrika angasetshenziswa ngazo ukuthola abantu abakhubazekile. Ngokusebenzisa iGHS, umthelela wokukhubazeka ekuyeni esikoleni nokuqhubeka emfundweni uyakwazi ukukaleka. Imiphumela yocwaningo iveza ukuthi abantwana abakhubazekile, ikakhulukazi labo abanokukhubazeka okukhulu, maningi amathuba okuthi bangasiqedi isikole kanti uma bekhona esikoleni basalele ngeminyaka emibili kontanga yabo abangakhubazekile. Kubantu abadala, abantu abakhubazekile banamathuba amancane okuzithola bebandakanyeka kwezemisebenzi, ukuqashwa nokuthi kube nemali abayiholayo. Ukukhubazeka okujulile (okusemzimbeni noma ngokuthikamezeka kwengqondo) kukhombisa isimo esibi kakhulu ngokubanzi. Kubalulekile okukhonjiswa yimiphumela kokuthi uma abantu abakhubazekile bekwazile ukuthola imfundo elingana neyozakwabo abangakhubazekile, imiphumela ngokwemisebenzi iyashintsha kakhulu. Lolu cwaningo ngaleyo ndlela lukhombisa ukubaluleka kwemfundo kanye nesidingo sokuthi imfundo ibhekelelwe ngokwenqubomgomo kubantu abakhubazekile. [Amagama asemqoka: Ukukhubazeka; Ezemfundo; Ezemisebenzi; Amasaveyi amakhaya]
A computable dynamic bioeconomic model of the optimal utilisation and management of South Africa's renewable marine resources : a case study of the hake fishery.
(1997) Saville, Adrian David.; Lumby, Anthony Bernard.
No abstract available.
Cost-effectiveness of HIV/AIDS interventions in South Africa.
(2014) Mbonigaba, Josué.; Harris, Geoffrey Thomas.
Despite some evidence that the effectiveness of HIV/AIDS interventions depends on the context of their implementation, there is a paucity of evidence on the cost-effectiveness (CE) of these interventions in South Africa. The objective of this study is therefore to compare the CE of major HIV/AIDS interventions in epidemiological and socio-economic contexts in South Africa using a methodology which takes into account the effect of the interaction between the context and HIV/AIDS interventions on the costs and effectiveness of such interventions. In epidemiological contexts, the CE of HIV/AIDS interventions is compared across a low HIV prevalence context (LPC) and a high HIV prevalence context (HPC) while in socio-economic contexts the comparison is done across a rural context and an urban context. The comparison of the CE of HIV/AIDS interventions requires the follow-up of patients in HIV/AIDS progression states (non-infected, infected, AIDS, death) over time. However because this follow-up is costly, the thesis models hypothetical populations of HIV/AIDS patients in each context, using two types of models, namely, Markov models and population projection models. These models simulate and project patients in the above-mentioned HIV/AIDS states over time and the cost and effectiveness data, systematically collected from South African literature, are applied to simulated and projected patients. The study finds that in epidemiological contexts, modelled HIV/AIDS interventions are generally more cost-effective in a LPC than they are in a HPC. In socio-economic contexts, the pattern of the CE of modelled HIV/AIDS interventions across a rural and an urban context is not specific and depends on the type of intervention. Prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) is more cost-effective in the rural context than it is in the urban context while highly active antiretroviral treatment for adults and children is more costeffective in the urban context than it is in the rural context. The study also finds that the extent of CE varies across HIV/AIDS interventions in any context. Therefore policy makers should allocate resources in accordance with these CE variations.
The determinants of long-term growth in the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) countries : an empirical study.
(2001) Kaakunga, Esau.; Holden, Merle Gwendoline.
No abstract available.
A determination and analysis of preservation values for protected areas.
(1993) Holland, John Douglas.; Breen, Charles Mackie.; Oldham, George W.
Abstract available in pdf file.
Do competition regimes matter in international trade? a case study of the Tripartite Free Trade Area.
(2021) Dube, Cornelius.; Sibanda, Mabutho.; Holden, Merle Gwendoline.
This thesis assesses the importance of competition policy and competition reforms in enhancing regional and continental integration processes. While using the envisaged Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) as a case study, it assess competition reforms in the individual countries as well as bilateral trade flows between the countries that would become members of the TFTA. As strides are now being made towards continental integration, the role that competition policy adoption and enforcement can play in enhancing benefits from the integration remains largely unexplored. The thesis’s objectives were threefold. Firstly, it aimed to demonstrate the need for competition reform to be part of the discussions on regional integration at the level of the envisaged TFTA by showcasing how existing bilateral trade flows between the countries were influenced by competition reforms in the countries. Secondly, the study investigated whether the existing competition regimes in the countries that would form the TFTA reflect a general belief in competition policy. Thirdly, it aimed to assess whether changes in levels of economic development over time within the African context, as reflected by members of the envisaged TFTA, influenced decisions to tighten competition regimes. An index, the Competition Reform Index (CRI), which quantitatively measures the strength of competition regimes, was designed to assess the level of acceptance of the competition reform agenda among the countries constituting the TFTA. Such acceptance is inferred based on univariate methods, specifically how the levels of the mean CRI, the standard deviation of the CRI and the maximum CRI score, have evolved over time. CRI data for 23 countries over the period 1998 to 2018 is used for this purpose. The manner in which competition reforms impact international trade was estimated using panel data models, with a measure of the strength of competition regimes included among the explanatory variables. More specifically, the gravity models of international trade were estimated through random effects panel data models and Generalised Methods of Moment (GMM) models, using bilateral country exports and imports for countries that would be part of the envisaged TFTA. The estimation for the random effects and GMM models was over the period 2001 to 2016 across 20 countries1 that would all be part of the proposed TFTA. The extent to which adoption of competition reforms in the envisaged TFTA could have been the result of changes in economic performance in these countries was estimated using panel Granger causality methods, for 23 countries over the period 1998 to 20182. More specifically, the study estimated the extent to which changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) levels in the proposed TFTA countries Granger cause changes in the CRI. The mean score of the CRI shows that although only 20% of the countries in the TFTA have not yet embraced competition reforms, few countries have been subjected to high quality competition regimes for a long period of time. The standard deviation of the CRI reflects some attempts to improve competition reforms over time in the region, although only 44% of the countries in the TFTA have high quality competition regimes. This confirms earlier studies that showed that some competition laws were adopted among the countries in the envisaged TFTA, but were designed to ensure that other public interests are not compromised. The study established that tightening competition reforms in the exporting country, reflected in an increase of 1% in the competition reforms variable will, on average, result in bilateral exports increasing by between 0.1% and 0.16%, holding other influencing variables constant. However, if the importing countries increase their competition variable by 1%, an average short-run decrease of 0.46% in bilateral exports would be expected, holding other things constant. With respect to imports, the results show that bilateral imports among countries in the proposed TFTA will increase by between 0.07% and 0.18% if the exporting countries increase their competition reforms by 1%, holding other influencing variables constant. The findings from the Granger causality tests of panel data do not produce statistically significant evidence that there is short-run causality from GDP to CRI. However, in the long run, this relationship is statistically significant. There are three major implications of these findings. Firstly, there is still room for countries to improve their competition regimes and enjoy more benefits from regional integration within the envisaged TFTA. Second, competition reforms should be enhanced in a quest to promote regional competitiveness and ultimately, global penetration rather than bilateral trade within the TFTA. This is due to the fact that an increase in bilateral exports in the TFTA is only apparent if other countries are lagging behind in competition reforms. Thus, if all countries in the TFTA were to adopt competition reforms, this added advantage would be neutralised. Third, the absence of short-run causality between GDP and competition reforms implies that regulatory capture and vested interests, which are characteristic of countries with low levels of development, are no longer a significant obstacle in the TFTA. This is encouraging from a policy perspective, as efforts to promote competition reforms at regional level can be continued across all countries with little fear of country vulnerability to capture by business and other vested interests.
Drivers of mergers and acquisitions and firm value growth in emerging markets.
(2019) Okofo-Dartey, Emmanuel.; Kwenda, Farai.
This study investigates drivers of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and firm value growth in emerging markets. It was targeted at acquirer firms from emerging markets since there is a continuous surge in acquisition transactions both locally and internationally by firms from the emerging markets. These acquirer firms have been using domestic and cross-border M&As as growth strategies to establish their presence and dominance in local and foreign markets. The study was executed with three distinct objectives. First, whether working capital positions of emerging market acquirer firms drive their M&A transactions and influence their decisions regarding the type of mergers they pursue using probit regression analysis. The free cash flow hypothesis was also tested to determine whether free cash flow available to these acquirer firms motivate them to undertake M&A deals. Second, whether managerial share ownership in firms drive M&A transactions by acquirers from the emerging markets and influences the sizes of target firms they acquire during acquisitions, again using a probit regression technique. The study under this objective further investigated the relationship between managerial discretion and the acquirers’ profitability levels. As a third objective, the study explored whether M&As transactions undertaken by emerging market acquirers are value-adding or value-destroying to shareholders of these firms by applying the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) methodology. The study covered a period of 10 years from 2004 to 2013 for 160 acquirer firms from ten (10) selected emerging market countries. Data were gleaned from the Bloomberg Terminal and DataStream. Results of this study suggest that, working capital positions of acquirer firms from the emerging markets are less likely to motivate them to undertake acquisition deals. However, the study reveals the marginal effect coefficient for the firms’ total assets to be positive and statistically significant at 1%, suggesting that, their total assets rather are more likely to influence them to execute acquisition transactions, all other things being equal. There is no evidence of the firms’ level of financial leverage, returns on assets (ROAs) and Tobin’s Q having the potential to influence these acquirers to pursue M&As. The study further concludes that, the firms’ free cash flows (FCFs) motivate them to execute M&As compared to their working capital positions. Regarding whether the acquirer firms’ working capital positions influence the type of M&As they pursue, the results indicate that, it is less likely to encourage them to undertake either a horizontal or vertical type of merger. Further, our results revealed that, managerial share ownership of emerging market acquirers is also less likely to drive them into acquisition transactions and influence them to pursue smaller-sized targets during M&As deals. Results from the study further suggest that, managerial discretion has a negative relationship on profitability levels of acquirer firms from the emerging market as far as their acquisition pursuits are concerned. Finally, results of the study show that, emerging market acquirers do not experience value growth in terms of profitability and growth opportunities in the first three years after M&As deals. A number of policy prescriptions arising from this thesis are presented to guide managers, practitioners and shareholders of firms in the emerging markets to shape their thoughts on M&As executions. Highlights of these policy prescriptions this study proffers include the following; managers should not ignore the efficient management of working capital. They should institute proper working capital management practices in their companies, in order not to experience liquidity challenges of either excess or shortages as any of them could impact adversely on the efficient running of their business activities particularly in the short-term period. An acquisition or a merger should be seen as a two-edged sword. When finally, firms take a decision to pursue M&As as an investment strategy option, they must fully take into account the issue of resources availability too. The target firm should be evaluated before an acquisition or a merger is performed. After an acquisition or merger, firms should restructure and integrate their resources. Also, for managers to have absolute control over firms and be able to influence investments decisions such as M&As especially in the emerging markets, their ownership percentage should be above the suggested significant level of 20%. Policy makers should also take a second look at their firms’ financial leverage positions and growth in total assets if they desire to improve on their profits levels because results of this study indicate that they have a significant impact on the firm’s ability to engage in M&As. Further, when firms from the emerging markets are planning or considering M&As for immediate value growth, they should recognise that M&A may not provide immediate growth in the first three years after M&A. Rather, the effects of M&A on firms’ value growth may be expected in the long-term period of five years and beyond. However, apart from using M&As for growth purposes, they may be used to create other types of value, such as market power enhancement, risk minimisation through market or product diversification or cost efficiency. Furthermore, since uncertainties exist in M&As, advance preparation is needed before an acquisition or a merger is executed, including a development of planning strategies and improvement of firm governance structure. It is, therefore, important for institutions and government to cooperate to come up with stronger systems to monitor corporate governance practices to bring some sanity to the business community. Lastly, diversifying internationally appears to be an important strategy for reducing risk after a successful merger. It is more likely for investors, all other things being equal, to reduce the levels of risks associated with their investment portfolio if they invest in internationally diversified merged firm.
An econometric analysis of the equity returns-inflation relationship in South Africa.
(2019) Moores-Pitt, Peter Brian Denton.; McCullough, Kerry-Ann Frances.; Murray, Michael.
Previous empirical evidence regarding the nature and magnitude of the relationship between equity returns and inflation has proven to be conflicting and inconsistent. Although several papers have considered this issue, there is still a lack of consensus as to the nature of the relationship between equity returns and inflation. This represents a considerable point of concern as it is this relationship that acts as an indicator of the historical efficacy of equities as an inflationary hedge. While the classical theory dating back to the 1930’s dictates that equities should function as an effective hedge against inflation because they are based on underlying assets with a fixed real value, a substantial number of studies have obtained results that contradict this theory. Many attempts have been made to explain this phenomenon and to resolve the debate since the 1980’s, notably with the application of cointegration theory andmethods (which were developed in the 90’s). Despite advances in econometrics, the issue remains unresolved on an international scale, with conflicting results still occurring in recent studies (Chaves and Silva, 2018; Bhanja and Dar, 2018; Al-Nassar and Bhatti, 2018). The literature that focuses on the South African case is a typical example of the disparity: relatively modern studies using fairly similar statistical approaches find vastly differing results as to the capacity for equities to act as an inflationary hedge, including findings of positive and negative results (Alagidede and Panagiotidis, 2010; Khumalo, 2013), as well as approaches that failed to produce conclusive results (van Rooyen and Jones, 2018). This thesis aims to resolve the issue for the South African case in order to determine whether or not equities have acted as a historically effective inflationary hedge. The South African economy represents a perfect natural experiment for the study due to its high volatility, especially in terms of macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, over the past thirty-five years. The analysis makes use of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as a proxy for inflation and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange’s All Share Index (ALSI) as a proxy for equity returns over the period 1980 to 2015. The study is undertaken as a collection of publications that each seek to address particular issues, mostly of an econometric nature, that arise when studying the relationship. The first of these papers deals with the disparity in the South African economy regarding the order of integration of the two variables and seeks to provide a comparative analysis with previous studies. Further, the research contained in paper one seeks to identify possible explanations for the conflicting results in previous studies. The study finds that a significant, positive cointegrating relationship between inflation and equity returns exists in South Africa, at least when using conventional cointegration techniques, implying that equities have exhibited the historical capacity to act as an effective historical hedge against inflation, in contrast to the findings of much of the literature. Further, it resolves previous issues with differing findings as to the orders of integration of the variables, which represents a particularly prevalent problem in studies using South African data. While these initial findings would appear to lend support to the conventional theory that equities are able to act as an effective inflationary hedge in South Africa, when examining the issue more deeply it becomes evident that this finding may potentially be impacted by the inherent assumptions of the models employed. Based on the results of previous studies and the results of the first paper, the second paper posits that the equity- inflation relationship is both time and country dependent, potentially contributing to the aforementioned disparities in the existing literature. The implication of potentially flawed model assumptions is that the results of the first paper may be inaccurate (the model risk of a poor model choice giving unreliable results). As a result of this potential limitations bias, the remaining papers of this doctoral dissertation delve into the assumptions behind the classic model, reflecting more deeply on the nature of the data employed and seeking to determine if this relationship holds when various, arguably more realistic, alternate assumptions are considered. The first of these assumptions that is critiqued is that the relationship is time-invariant, such that the equity-inflation relationship does not exhibit variance over time. In an economy such as South Africa, which has shown exceptional macroeconomic volatility, such an assumption may well be inaccurate and is likely to have reduced the integrity of the conventional tests. Relaxing the assumption of time-invariance allows one to consider that the relationship may have experienced shifts over time as a result of exogenous shocks. This idea is tested by investigating the possibility of structural breaks in the individual time series, as well as in the relationship itself. Structural breaks here refer to an unexpected shift in a time series that can lead to forecasting errors, compromising the reliability of the model. Should a model rely on the assumption of time-invariance it is unable to account for the existence of such structural breaks, leading to compromised results. In the second paper, significant evidence for the existence of structural breaks was found in the case of both variables as well as in the overall relationship. Using the most significant structural break as a breakpoint and investigating the relationship preceding and subsequent to the break pointed to clear evidence that the relationship does change over time. As previous studies have generally assumed the series do not contain breaks, the assumption of time-invariance in previous work may have led to inherently flawed conclusions. However, what this second paper was able to demonstrate, was that even when accounting for breaks, equities maintained their capacity to act as a hedge against inflation in South Africa on either side of that structural break. Further, cointegration testing allowing for structural breaks indicated that the overall relationship was significant and positive and affirmed the prior conclusion that equities are an effective inflationary hedge in the long-run. That is, even when relaxing the assumption of time-invariance and accounting for structural breaks, the overall conclusion for the South African case – that equities are able to perform a hedging function against inflation – remains true. This thesis then continues by developing on this idea of addressing the previous assumptions that may affect this type of analysis, building towards a final, more robust, conclusion. Two additional assumptions remain which require consideration. In recent literature the question of asymmetric adjustment has arisen, including in the analysis of the relationship between equity returns and inflation. Such studies have aimed to deal with the idea that there is no compelling reason to assume that adjustments of the relationship between equity returns and inflation have necessarily been symmetric. Further, it is possible that the relationship may have been subject to a threshold effect, where it exhibits different characteristics depending on whether stocks are underpriced or overpriced relative to goods. It was shown that the adjustment coefficients differ substantially depending on whether they are above or below a certain threshold, and thus that the assumption of linear adjustment is flawed as the relationship exhibits asymmetric adjustment in reality. Further testing for asymmetric adjustment and allowing for such adjustments in the relationship led to the conclusion that the relationship has experienced asymmetric adjustment over the sample period and that the relationship between equity returns and inflation is more appropriately modelled using threshold cointegration techniques. Such findings drastically improve our understanding of the dynamics of the equity returns-inflation relationship and emphasize the importance of accounting for these factors in similar studies. The weakness in previous cointegration testing is somewhat exposed by the strength of the evidence of asymmetric adjustment and effectively questions the findings of the majority of the previous literature which has relied on these techniques. The model far more accurately estimates the relationship between equity returns and inflation and provides new evidence that it experiences a measure of variance around an endogenously determined threshold. Due to the relative power of the model as well as the fact that it has accounted for these factors it can be stated with far greater certainty that South African equities are able to provide an effective hedge against domestic inflation. The evidence of threshold effects is of importance to investors and policy makers, as it is at this point that the adjustment coefficients will vary in terms of their response to exogenous shocks. This is particularly important in the context of this thesis because of the evidence of multiple structural breaks in the cointegrating relationship (found in the second publication) indicating that the relationship has been affected by exogenous shocks at multiple points over the sample period. These factors, namely structural breaks, threshold effects and asymmetric adjustment, are a likely reason why previous studies, on an international scale, have exhibited such conflicting results. Should these studies be reconsidered to incorporate such effects, it would vastly improve the robustness of the results of these studies. It should be noted that the magnitude of the relationship is likely to differ across countries and time periods due to the variation in structural dynamics and macroeconomic conditions. It is therefore improbable that some standard measure of the relationship, such as the conventional theory by Fisher, would accurately estimate the relationship regardless of the sample country or sample period, given the findings in this thesis that the relationship is affected by exogenous factors. Due to the findings of asymmetric adjustment in the third research paper, it is not only the magnitude of the relationship that will cause varied responses, but also potentially the direction of the adjustment. This is investigated further in the fourth paper of this thesis, which aims to disaggregate the overall adjustment coefficient in order to better understand the effects of positive and negative adjustments when they differ substantially from the long-term aggregate relationship. Disaggregating the overall adjustment coefficient into its positive and negative components provided a novel understanding of the dynamics of the relationship. The results of the disaggregation were surprising due to the magnitude of the disparity between the positive and negative adjustments coefficients and indicated that it is important to consider the possibility of imminent fluctuations in inflation when best deciding how to hedge against it. Collectively however, this thesis has proven that equities are able to function as an effective long-run hedge against inflation in South Africa. Further this thesis demonstrates that the inherent assumptions in conventional cointegration techniques, especially those of time-invariance and symmetric adjustment are flawed and have likely contributed to the disparities in the previous literature.
The economic impact of adult mortality and morbidity on smallholder farm households in Malawi.
(2011) Simwaka, Kisukyabo.; Harris, Geoffrey Thomas.; Ferrer, Stuart Richard Douglas.
This thesis comprises three essays on “The Economic impact of adult mortality and morbidity on smallholder farm households in Malawi.” The first essay estimates the levels of technical efficiency of AIDS-affected and non-affected smallholder farm households, and examines the technical efficiency differentials. The study uses time-varying and timeinvariant inefficiency models of production. The results show that among both female and male headed households, for both affected and non-affected households, fertilizer and seeds are the only variables that contribute significantly towards technical efficiency. The mean efficiency levels of affected and non-affected households are statistically not different. The second essay examines the maize production differentials between AIDS-affected and nonaffected farm households using the difference in difference estimation method. The results show that, for both affected and non-affected households, the mean maize production levels are higher during 2006/07 compared to 2004/05 However, the difference between the mean maize production levels of affected and non-affected households over the 2004/05 and 2006/07 period is not statistically significant. The third essay examines the coping strategies used by households facing food security problems. The results from the multinomial logistic model show that during 2004/05 and 2006/07, the most dominant coping strategy used by both AIDS-affected and non-affected households facing food security problems, is buying food from market. This is followed by casual labour, obtaining food from relatives and friends, eating unripe maize before harvest, and irrigation farming. The results from logistic discriminant analysis function indicate that, for all households, ordinary coping strategies are dominant among food-insecure households with a total score of close to 80 percent, much higher than survival strategies at around 20 percent during 2004/05.
Energy consumption and economic growth: evidence from African oil exporting countries.
(2022) Ogunsola, Akindele John.; Tipoy, Christian Kakese.
This thesis examines the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in a sample of African oil-exporting countries (AOECs). The group comprises Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Gabon, Nigeria and the Republic of Congo. The thesis presents three separate, but interconnected essays based on annual data on the period 1980 to 2018. The persistent energy consumption issues are ascribed to the failure of energy planners to understand the various macroeconomic factors that influence energy consumption. Therefore, the first essay in Chapter 3 investigates the factors influencing energy consumption, using the cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag and the cross-sectional distributed lag modelling estimators. These estimators consider the time dynamics and the heterogeneity of the different countries. Moreover, they are robust to cross-sectional dependence. The study explores the relationship between energy consumption and its major determinants, such as openness, economic structure and per capita income. The results reveal that openness has a positive and significant effect on energy consumption in AOECs during the period under study, while the economic structure has a negative and significant effect. The third variable of interest, namely per capita income, does not impact significantly on energy consumption. It is, therefore, recommended that these countries transform their economies structurally such that it will make economic growth more inclusive, driven by domestic value-added and not exogenous income from primary product exports. Most African net oil exporters are characterised by a unique paradox. They have low energy consumption despite their large energy deposits, and their economic growth rates are lower than both the global and African average. Hence, the second essay in Chapter 4 investigates the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. The study uses both linear and non-linear estimators. The study estimates a panel smooth transition vector error-correction model, which is robust to cross-sectional dependence and endogeneity and conduct a regime-wide Granger causality test. The study finds that the nonlinearities between the two variables are better explained whenever energy consumption is the transition variable. The Granger causality results show that in the short run, neither energy consumption nor economic growth causes each other in both low and high-growth regimes. In the long run, however, energy consumption Granger causes economic growth in high-growth regimes only. The economic growth variable, Granger causes energy consumption in both regimes. We conclude that a high economic growth rate drives energy consumption in AOECs. Consequently, it is recommended that conservation policies such as eliminating fossil fuels should be implemented efficiently, as they can hinder growth in the long run. A close connection exists amongst oil price shocks, energy consumption and economic growth. This connection has consequences for the growth of an economy. Using the Bayesian structural vector autoregressive model, the third essay in Chapter 5 analyses the impact of oil price shocks on energy consumption and economic growth. The study finds that the oil price shocks impact energy consumption and economic growth of all six AOECs. Conversely, the domestic variables of energy growth and economic growth does not impact oil price inflation. The unexpected variations in energy consumption impacts positive influence on economic growth in Nigeria, the Republic of the Congo and Gabon, whereas it is an inverse relationship in Angola, Egypt and Nigeria. The shock of economic growth leads to positive change in energy consumption in Angola, the Republic of the Congo, Egypt and Nigeria, but with inverse relationship in Algeria and Gabon. It is on this basis that we recommend the diversification of these economies to lessen the effect of external shocks in AOECs.

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