The relationship between tertiary education and employment in South Africa.

Abstract

Fundamentally, Human Capital Skills and Infrastructural Development are expected to enhance industrial Sector Growth in Sub-Saharan African economies. However, evidence from the literature observed a paradox that requires further investigation. Consequently, this study examined factors determining industrial output growth in Sub-Saharan African Economies. The study investigated the comparative effects of human capital skills and infrastructural development on industrial output growth across four sub-regional economic blocs in 40 SSA countries between 1990 and 2022. Also, the study examined asymmetric and threshold effects of human capital skill and infrastructure on industrial output growth across the sub-regional economic blocs in SSA. The study hypothesised that (i) certain factors impact industrial output growth, (ii) human capital skills and infrastructural techs had comparative effects and significant effects on industrial output growth, (iii) there were asymmetric and threshold effects of human capital skills and infrastructural development on industrial output growth across subregional economic blocs in SSA. A panel data analysis via trend, matrix correlation estimating techniques, and short-run and long-run dynamic systems from generalised methods of the moment (GMM) were adopted to achieve objective one. Trend analysis, Sub-sample analysis, Fixed Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV) and short-run and long-run dynamic system GMM were adopted to achieve objective two. To achieve objective three, panel threshold regression and Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lags (NARDL) techniques were used. The outcomes from objective one showed that key measurement variables had short-run and long-run dynamic effects on industrial output growth in SSA. This implies that industrial output growth is pathdependent, indicating that the current level of a country's output growth strongly influences its future output growth. For example, factors like school enrolment rate, ICT, and average year of schooling were negative and statistically significant in impacting growth. Consequently, the study recommended that authorities in SSA enact policies that would drive human capital skills and infrastructure development across the region. It was also suggested that individual sub-regions such as ECA, ECCAS, ECOWAS and SADC should draft subregional policy support unique to their sub-region to address specific and perennial problems militating against industrial output growth.