Modelling residential electricity usage within the eThekwini Municipal Area.

Abstract

In this study we use linear mixed models to model residential electricity consumption within the eThekwini municipal area. Utilities around South Africa are required to estimate monthly electricity consumptions for each household within their jurisdiction however, little work has been done to find models that may be used to do so. As part of the modelling process we investigate seasonal trends in consumption as well as temporal and spatial variations. Data for the study were obtained from eThekwini Electricity, a subsidiary of eThekwini Municipality. Key findings of the research include confirming the presence of a seasonal pattern in monthly electricity consumption and proving that variations in consumption of different households are not related to the physical distance between them. Models developed in this study also have applications in prediction and may be used to predict future electricity consumption for individual households. Predictions made using the models from this study were found to be closer to the actual value, than that of the customary eThekwini Electricity predicted values.