Statistical modelling and spatial mapping of crime in South Africa.

Abstract

This research investigates factors related to crime rates for the 2013/2014 South African Crime Survey. The survey provides personal information and crime related experiences for all members of the 25 605 households that was part of the study. Using the generalized linear model analysis we show that the crime outcomes significantly differed between provinces. A further data set, containing aggregated crime statistics from 1 140 police stations, had the GPS co-ordinates included which allowed for spatial mapping of crime incidence. Results may be used to predict crime hot spots in the country, thereby having the potential to inform crime reduction initiatives, which could be deployed strategically in order to minimize overall crime by focusing on the potential crime hot spots. In a country where resources are limited and that careful planning is essential, this study potentially has a lot to offer.