Ascertaining fertility replacement levels for Southern African countries.

Abstract

The study set out to investigate the level of growth of populations of Southern African Countries by estimating the fertility levels, the mortality levels as well as the replacement fertility levels so as to establish if the generation of women in these countries are replacing themselves or not. This study focused on the following select countries; South Africa, Swaziland, Lesotho, Namibia and Zimbabwe and the Demographic Health Survey Dataset (DHS) ranging between 1998 and 2007 was used for these countries in investigating the levels of growth measured by TFR. This study was a comparative analysis between countries on their fertility and mortality levels and was done by utilizing one of the most comprehensive data sources, the Demographic Health Survey Data for the individual countries. The DHS data set that has been used for each of the Southern African Countries ranges between the years 1998 and 2007. This was done to ensure that the years at which these data sets for these Southern African Countries were collected are not too far apart so as to allow comparisons between countries and avoid bias. The findings of this study from the analysis revealed that Southern African countries still boast high fertility rate levels between 2.9 and 3.8 and that all the five countries forming part of this study have a Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) that is above 1.1 children per woman. Finally, The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) at replacement level for all these countries in Southern Africa is above 2.1, in fact, it ranges between 2.7 and 3.3 for all these five countries. Recommendations were made that Local and National Governments in these developing countries should track the replacement fertility levels for their countries from time to time. This will assist in avoiding a situation whereby many governments targeting total fertility rates of 2.1 find their population in decline if such a target was reached whilst replacement fertility remained above 2.1. In addition to that, during population conferences, demographers should make it a point that issues surrounding replacement fertility levels for developing countries are discussed. Replacement fertility for developed countries, which is set at 2.1 children per woman, should therefore be used as a guideline for tracking and reporting of developing countries replacement fertility levels.