Exploring the socioeconomic and political impacts of armed conflict in the Central Sahel region: the case study of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.

Abstract

Ongoing armed conflict in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger has generated interlocking socioeconomic, humanitarian and political consequences, including displacement, livelihood disruption, reduced access to education and healthcare, weakened state capacity and contested political legitimacy. Although the three countries share cross-border armed-group activity and structural vulnerabilities, their national experiences differ in the scale, timing and institutional expression of these effects. This dissertation therefore compares the three cases using common indicators and treats the 2011 collapse of the Gaddafi regime in Libya as one catalyst among] several interacting historical, political, socioeconomic and environmental drivers. This qualitative desktop study analyses secondary documentary evidence published between 2012 and May 2026. It applies a comparative case-study design, a transparent source hierarchy and structured thematic analysis to examine displacement, agricultural production, food insecurity, education, healthcare, ethnic marginalisation, resource governance, political legitimacy, state capacity and international intervention. Conflict theory is used to identify how unequal power and competition may create grievances and opportunities for mobilisation, while structural violence theory explains how institutions and unequal social arrangements produce indirect and cumulative harm. The findings show substantial regional convergence but also meaningful country differences and important evidence gaps, particularly for Niger. The study concludes that conflict effects arise through the interaction of armed violence with preexisting governance, inequality, climate and institutional constraints; it therefore recommends sequenced, actor-specific and evidence-based responses rather than uniform regional prescriptions.