Reviewing precautionary thresholds at seaport precincts on account of intense coastal weather conditions in KwaZulu-Natal.

Abstract

The prevalence of port damages as a result of severe weather occurrences along the coastal areas of KwaZulu-Natal has highlighted possible future impacts that climate change is likely to induce on the port setup. This then raises concerns in terms of the readiness of ports to take precautionary measures that would protect lives as well as the infrastructure. This study seeks to influence a review in the manner in which meteorological forecast and warnings issued to marine services are communicated and utilised among harbour authorities. The study also seeks to explore the potential of improving the enforcement of the existing port regulation and guidelines in order to improve safety in the advent of climate change. In order to identify the climate variables contributing directly to any severe weather driven incidence a proper analysis of weather patterns dominant during occurrence is an initial step. The study determines the relevant climate variables responsible for the two incidents at the two commercial ports of focus accordingly. The study relies heavily on reported account of events from various platforms however this limitation is supplemented through sourcing opinions from a range of experts relevant to the study during interviews. One of the incidents happened on 19 August 2013 when the MV Smart, a fully-laden Capesized dry-bulk carrier, ran aground while on exit from Richards Bay harbour. Another incident occurred on 10 October 2017 when five vessels that were berthed in various areas of the Durban port broke their moorings and were blown across the harbour by the very strong winds during the great storm. As an incident reconstruction exercise the study superimposes the peak levels reached by the climate variables with the magnitude of damages at the time of peak. The marine weather forecast & warnings issued twice daily for marine services predicts the possible extreme levels of climate variables, hence the study verifies the effectiveness of this forecast in informing precautionary measures. Port operations have available an enabling regulation in the form of the National Ports Act (12/2005) as well as the IMO guidelines as material to ensure precautionary measures are taken in advance to severe weather occurrences at the port. The research contends that proper utilisation and elevated enforcement of this available regulatory material has become even more vital in the advent of climate change phenomenon. The study recommends that in order to inform proper decision making inside the harbour, real time observed weather conditions and climate variables including the wind forcing be regularly updated. There is also a need for the Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) to conduct climate change vulnerability studies specifically relating to the harbours, preferably reviewable after a 5 to 10 years period.