Assessment of the impact of climate change on food supply chain and livehoods of smallholder vegetable farmers in rural KwaZulu Natal province, South Africa = Ukuhlolwa komthelela wokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu ochungechungeni lokuhlinzeka ngokudla kanye nezimpilo zabalimi abancane bemifino esifundazweni saKwaZulu-Natali, eNingizimu Afrika.

Abstract

Smallholder vegetable farmers cultivate crops for family use and sales. In South Africa, these farmers are facing numerous challenges due to climate change, such as increased pests and diseases and reduced crop yields due to fluctuations in temperatures and the climate. These challenges significantly affect the income of these smallholder farmers and the food supply chain negatively; hence they need effective strategies to overcome the obstacles caused by climate change to their food supply chain and livelihoods. The study’s main objective was to assess the impact of climate change on the food supply chain and livelihoods of smallholder vegetable farmers in rural KwaZulu Natal Province (KZN). Using a mixed-methods design, 200 farmers were randomly selected from a population of 2,530 across 11 districts, based on a (95%) confidence level and (5%) margin of error. Quantitative data were gathered through questionnaires, while qualitative insights came from 22 key informant interviews and 12 focus group discussions. Analysis involved SPSS, STATA, SUR, Box-Cox, and multivariate probit models, with thematic analysis using NVivo 12. The first objective of this study explored the effect of climate change on the food supply chain in Africa, with a focus on South Africa. A systematic literature review of 143 peer-reviewed articles (1993–2023) revealed that climate change significantly disrupts food supply chains by reducing crop yields, lowering food quality, and limiting market availability, thereby increasing food insecurity, especially among smallholder farmers reliant on rain-fed agriculture. Thematic analysis highlighted key areas of impact, including production, food safety, distribution, and adaptation. Effective responses require the adoption of Climate-Smart Agriculture, improved access to finance and climate information, and the integration of agriculture, trade, and climate policies to build resilient and sustainable food systems in vulnerable regions. This second objective aimed to map the food supply chain in KwaZulu-Natal by identifying key actors, analysing its structure, and assessing vulnerabilities, particularly for smallholder farmers. Using a mixed-methods approach with data from 200 farmers and stakeholders, the findings revealed widespread land underutilization, reliance on informal markets, poor infrastructure, and limited institutional support. Climate change has intensified challenges, increasing production costs, crop failures, and food insecurity. The sector is further strained by an aging farming population and the growing dominance of informal traders. The study concludes that improving the resilience and sustainability of the supply chain requires targeted government support, investment in infrastructure, and strategies promoting climate-smart practices and formal market inclusion. The third objective evaluated how smallholder vegetable farmers’ perceptions of climate change affect their income in KwaZulu-Natal. Using a survey of 200 farmers and econometric analyses (SUR and Box-Cox models), results showed that (69%) experienced crop failures and (84%) reported reduced yields due to climate variability. Positive factors influencing crop management included marital status, land ownership, and participation in food networks, while larger households and sole reliance on farming reduced adaptive capacity and income. The findings highlight that farmers’ ability to adapt is influenced by both socio-economic and perceptual factors. The study recommends tailored climate education, climate-smart practices, and better access to financial and digital resources to improve resilience and income among vulnerable smallholder farmers. The fourth objective explored smallholder vegetable farmers’ perceptions of climate change and its association on food security and income in KwaZulu-Natal. Surveying 200 farmers with both quantitative and qualitative methods, results showed that the majority (93%) recognized climate change impacts like erratic rainfall and rising temperatures, which significantly affected their production and income. Despite awareness, limited access to climate information, poor infrastructure, and institutional gaps hindered adaptation. With 85% relying solely on vegetable farming, economic vulnerability remains high. The study recommends policies promoting climate-resilient crops, water harvesting, real-time climate data dissemination, and tailored training, especially for older farmers, to strengthen resilience and sustain livelihoods amid climate challenges. The last and fifth objective examined the factors influencing the choice and extent of climate adaptation strategies among smallholder vegetable farmers in KwaZulu-Natal. Surveying 200 farmers, results showed most experienced climate variability and adopted carbon- and watersmart practices. Using Multivariate Probit and Count Data models, findings revealed that education level and land size positively affected adaptation adoption, while marital status, household size, income source, soil type, association membership, and supply chain involvement negatively influenced adaptation choices and capacity. The study recommends stronger government support for Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) through training, credit access, and technologies like hot houses to improve farmers’ resilience and enhance food security. The study concluded that climate change significantly disrupts smallholder vegetable production and the food supply chain in KwaZulu Natal, negatively impacting food security and livelihoods. Farmers’ awareness of climate impacts and adoption of adaptation strategies are influenced by socio-economic and structural factors such as education, land tenure, and access to resources. However, barriers including limited infrastructure, financial constraints, and inadequate institutional support restrict effective adaptation. Therefore, while adaptation strategies offer potential to enhance resilience, interventions must be contextually tailored to address these specific challenges. The findings highlight the need for integrated approaches combining technical assistance, improved infrastructure, climate education, and inclusive policies to strengthen the adaptive capacity and sustainability of smallholder farmers in the region.

Iqoqa. Abalimi abancane bemifino balima izitshalo ezizosetshenziswa wumndeni futhi bazidayise. ENingizimu Afrika laba balimi babhekene nezinselelo eziningi ngenxa yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu njengokwanda kwezinambuzane nezifo nokuncipha kwesivuno ngenxa yokushintshashintsha kwamazinga okushisa nesimo sezulu. Lezi zinselelo ziphazamisa kakhulu iholo labalimi abasafufusa kanye neketango lokutholakala kokudla; yingakho-ke badinga amasu asebenzayo okunqoba izithiyo ezidalwa ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu ochungechungeni lokuhlinzekwa kokudla kanye nempilo yabo. Inhloso enkulu yocwaningo wukuhlola umthelela wokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu ohlelweni lokuhlinzekwa kokudla kanye nempilo yabalimi abancane bemifino ezindaweni zasemaphandleni KwaZulu-Natali (KZN). Ngokusebenzisa idizayni yezindlela ezixubile, abalimi abangu-200 bakhethwa ngokungahleliwe kubantu abangu-2,530 kuzo zonke izifunda ezingu-11, ngokusekelwe ezingeni lokuzethemba elingu-(95%) kanye no-5%) wephutha lephutha. Idatha yobuningi yaqoqwa ngohlu lwemibuzo, kanti imininingwane yekhwalithi yavela ezingxoxweni zabanolwazi ababalulekile ezingu-22 kanye nezingxoxo zamaqembu angu-12 okugxilwe kuzo. Ukuhlaziywa kuhilela i-SPSS, STATA, SUR, Box-Cox, namamodeli e-multivariate probit, ngokuhlaziywa kwetimu kusetshenziswa i-NVivo 12. Inhloso yokuqala yalolu cwaningo yahlola umthelela wokuguquka kwesimo sezulu ohlelweni lokuhlinzekwa kokudla e-Afrika, kugxilwe eNingizimu Afrika. Ukubuyekezwa okuhlelekile kwezincwadi zendatshana ezibuyekezwe ngontanga eziyi-143 (1993-2023) kuveze ukuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuphazamisa kakhulu imigudu yokuhlinzekwa kokudla ngokunciphisa isivuno sezitshalo, ukwehlisa izinga lokudla, nokunciphisa ukutholakala kwemakethe, ngaleyo ndlela kwandise ukungavikeleki kokudla, ikakhulukazi kubalimi abancane abathembele ekulimeni okunemvula. Ukuhlaziywa kwetimu kugqamise izindawo ezibalulekile zomthelela, okuhlanganisa ukukhiqiza, ukuphepha kokudla, ukusatshalaliswa, kanye nokuzivumelanisa nezimo. Izimpendulo ezisebenzayo zidinga ukwamukelwa kweClimate-Smart Agriculture, ukufinyelela okuthuthukisiwe kwezezimali nolwazi lwesimo sezulu, kanye nokuhlanganiswa kwezinqubomgomo zezolimo, ezohwebo, kanye nesimo sezulu ukuze kwakhiwe izinhlelo zokudla eziqinile neziqinile ezindaweni ezisengozini. Lenhloso yesibili bekuhloswe ngayo ukukhomba indlela yokuhlinzeka ngokudla KwaZulu-Natal ngokuhlonza ababambiqhaza, kuhlaziywe ukwakheka kwayo, nokuhlola ubuthakathaka, ikakhulukazi kubalimi abancane. Kusetshenziswa izindlela ezixubile nedatha evela kubalimi nababambe iqhaza abangama-200, okutholakele kuveze ukusetshenziswa kancane komhlaba okusabalele, ukuthembela ezimakethe ezingekho emthethweni, ingqalasizinda embi, kanye nokwesekwa okulinganiselwe kwezikhungo. Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuye kwaqinisa izinselelo, ukwanda kwezindleko zokukhiqiza, ukwehluleka kwezilimo, nokungavikeleki kokudla. Lo mkhakha uphinde ucindezelwe ukwanda kwabalimi asebekhulile kanye nokukhula ngamandla kwabahwebi abasakhula. Ucwaningo luphetha ngokuthi ukwenza ngcono ukusimama nokuzinza kwe-supply chain kudinga ukwesekwa kukahulumeni okuhlosiwe, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwingqalasizinda, kanye namasu akhuthaza imikhuba ehlakaniphile yesimo sezulu kanye nokufakwa kwezimakethe ezisemthethweni. Inhloso yesithathu ihlole ukuthi imibono yabalimi bemifino emincane mayelana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu ithinta kanjani iholo labo KwaZulu-Natali. Kusetshenziswa inhlolovo yabalimi abangama-200 kanye nokuhlaziywa kwezomnotho (amamodeli e-SUR kanye ne-Box-Cox), imiphumela yabonisa ukuthi (amaphesenti angama-69) ahlangabezane nokuhluleka kwezitshalo futhi (84%) abika isivuno esinciphile ngenxa yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu. Izici ezinhle ezinomthelela ekuphathweni kwezitshalo zihlanganisa isimo somshado, ubunikazi bomhlaba, nokubamba iqhaza kumanethiwekhi okudla, kuyilapho amakhaya amakhulu kanye nokuthembela kuphela ekulimeni kunciphisa amandla okuzivumelanisa nezimo nemali engenayo. Okutholakele kugqamisa ukuthi ikhono labalimi lokuzivumelanisa nezimo lithonywa yizinto zombili zenhlalomnotho kanye nemibono. Ucwaningo luncoma ukufundiswa kwesimo sezulu esilungiselelwe, izinqubo ezihlakaniphile zesimo sezulu, kanye nokufinyelela okungcono kwezinsiza zezezimali nezedijithali ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukuqina kanye nemali engenayo phakathi kwabalimi abancane abasengozini. Inhloso yesine ihlola imibono yabalimi bemifino abancane ngokuguquka kwesimo sezulu kanye nokuhlangana kwabo ngokuvikeleka kokudla kanye nengeniso KwaZulu-Natali Kucutshungulwa abalimi abangama-200 ngezindlela zokulinganisa kanye nekhwalithi, imiphumela yabonisa ukuthi iningi (93%) liyibonile imithelela yokuguquka kwesimo sezulu njengemvula eguquguqukayo kanye nokukhuphuka kwezinga lokushisa, okube nomthelela omkhulu ekukhiqizeni nasekungeniseni imali. Naphezu kokuqwashisa, ukufinyelela okulinganiselwe olwazini lwesimo sezulu, ingqalasizinda engekho kahle, kanye namagebe esikhungo kukhinyabeze ukuzivumelanisa nezimo. Njengoba ama-85% ethembele kuphela ekulimeni imifino, ukuba sengozini kwezomnotho kusalokhu kuphezulu. Lolu cwaningo luncoma imigomo ekhuthaza izitshalo ezikwazi ukumelana nesimo sezulu, ukuvunwa kwamanzi, ukusatshalaliswa kwedatha yesimo sezulu ngesikhathi sangempela, kanye nokuqeqeshwa ngendlela efanele, ikakhulukazi kubalimi asebekhulile, ukuze kuqiniswe amandla okumelana nesimo sezulu kanye nokusimamisa izimpilo zabo phakathi nezinselelo zesimo sezulu. Inhloso yokugcina neyesihlanu yahlola izici ezinomthelela ekukhetheni kanye nezinga lamasu okubhekana nesimo sezulu phakathi kwabalimi abancane bemifino KwaZulu-Natali. Ukuhlola abalimi abangu-200, imiphumela yabonisa ukuhlukahluka kwesimo sezulu esinolwazi kakhulu futhi yamukela imikhuba ye-carbon- kanye ne-water-smart. Kusetshenziswa amamodeli we-Multivariate Probit and Count Data, okutholakele kuveze ukuthi izinga lemfundo kanye nobukhulu bomhlaba kwaba nomthelela omuhle ekuthatheni isimo, kanti isimo somshado, ubukhulu bomuzi, umthombo wemali engenayo, uhlobo lwenhlabathi, ubulungu benhlangano, nokubandakanyeka kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla kube nomthelela omubi ekukhetheni ukuzivumelanisa nezimo namandla. Ucwaningo luncoma ukwesekwa okuqinile kukahulumeni kwe-Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) ngokuqeqeshwa, ukufinyelela izikweletu, kanye nobuchwepheshe obufana nezindlu ezishisayo ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukuqina kwabalimi kanye nokuthuthukisa ukuvikeleka kokudla. Ucwaningo luphethe ngokuthi ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kuphazamisa kakhulu ukukhiqizwa kwemifino yabalimi abancane kanye nohlelo lokuhlinzekwa kokudla KwaZulu-Natal, kube nomthelela omubi ekuvikelekeni kokudla kanye nempilo. Ukuqwashisa kwabalimi ngomthelela wesimo sezulu kanye nokwamukela amasu okuzivumelanisa nezimo kuthonywa izici zenhlalo-mnotho kanye nesakhiwo njengemfundo, ubunikazi bomhlaba, kanye nokutholakala kwezinsiza. Kodwa-ke, izithiyo ezihlanganisa ingqalasizinda elinganiselwe, izingqinamba zezimali, kanye nokwesekwa okwanele kwesikhungo kukhawulela ukuzivumelanisa nezimo ngempumelelo. Ngakho-ke, nakuba amasu okuzivumelanisa nezimo enikeza amandla okuthuthukisa ukukhuthazela, ukungenelela kufanele kuhambisane nesimo ukuze kubhekwane nalezi zinselelo ezithile. Okutholakele kugqamisa isidingo sezindlela ezididiyelwe ezihlanganisa usizo lwezobuchwepheshe, ingqalasizinda ethuthukisiwe, ukufundisa ngesimo sezulu, kanye nezinqubomgomo ezibandakanya wonke umuntu ukuze kuqiniswe amandla okuzivumelanisa nezimo kanye nokusimama kwabalimi abasafufusa esifundeni.