Measurement and modelling of households' demand and access to basic water in relation to the rapidly increasing household numbers in South Africa.

Abstract

Service delivery in post-apartheid South Africa has become a topical issue both in the academia and the political arena . The rise of social movements, the xenophobic tensions of May 2008 and protest actions could be noted as the major traits of post-apartheid South Africa. Though there are divergent views on the underlying causes of these protests, lack of service delivery has most significantly been at the centre stage. In this thesis we investigate the relationship between household/population changes and the demand for piped-water connection in South Africa. There is an ample, albeit at times of questionable accuracy, supply of statistics from official and other sources. These statistics are both the source of inspiration of particular societal measures to be investigated and a gauge of the accuracy of the mathematical/statistical modelling which is the central feature of this project. We construct mathematical/statistical models which take into account demographic constituents of the problem using differential equations for modelling household dynamics and we also investigate the interaction of demographic parameters and the demand for piped-water connection using multivariate statistical techniques. The results show that with a boost in delivery the rich provinces seem to be in better standing of meeting targets and that the increasing demand in household-based services could be most significantly attributed to the fragmentation of households against other demographic processes like natural increase in population and net migration. The results imply that in as much as service delivery policies and programmes should focus on formerly disadvantaged poor communities, adequate provisions for increasing service demands in urban centres should also be a priority in view of the increasing in-migration from rural areas as households fragment. Most of the findings/results are in tabular and graphical forms for easy understanding of the reader.