Masters Degrees (Economics)

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10413/6941

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Measuring the economic costs of trade protection in South Africa.
(2025) Molapo, Rethabile.; Kohler , Marcel Rene Anton Robert.
This dissertation investigates the economic cost of trade protection on South Africa's economy through a panel analysis from 2010 to 2022, focusing on South Africa’s trade with 127 partner countries. The Gravity model serves as the main estimation framework for the study as it provides a detailed observation of international trade. The Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation approaches serve as the main methods used to measure the effectiveness of the gravity model in the study. Through comparisons between OLS and PPML the study observes the elasticities of the determinants of trade across the OLS and PPML and affirms the need to focus on the PPML which reveals more reliable estimates which are neither underestimated nor overestimated the study confirms that trade protection leads to less trade activity, it will result to a reduction in gains from exports which is important in influencing the economic growth of South Africa. The research includes an in-depth analysis of tariffs, both as a standalone measure and as a variable within the gravity model as the main form of protectionism in international trade. The study highlights the evolving role of tariffs in trade protection and concludes that tariffs may have been overstated as a standalone measure of trade protection in studies of international trade. The study shows that tariffs have a more significant influence on trade in the PPML model as opposed to the OLS and the study shows that the PPML explains a larger degree of the effects on trade flows than the OLS does. The findings in the study suggest that the PPML method should be used for South Africa’s gravity model simulations due to the reliable elasticities that the model returns.
The impact of oil price fluctuations on the South African exchange rate.
(2025) Moabelo , Noko Kgaogelo.; Nyati , Malibongwe Cyprian.
This study investigates the nature of the relationship and the effects of changes in oil prices on South Africa's exchange rate. It fills an essential gap in comprehending how oil price shocks influence emerging market economic dynamics. South Africa is heavily dependent on imported oil, with 90% of the country’s oil and petroleum needs coming from imported sources, and the exchange rate is overly sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices. Through the use of a Bayesian Vector Auto Regressive (BVAR) model, this study examines the connections in the period from 2000-2022 between oil prices, the South African Rand (ZAR), and key macroeconomic indicators, like the Consumer Price Index (CPI), interest rates, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The study finds that the initial oil price shock to exchange rates is weakly positive in the short run, reflecting a 1% increase in oil prices, leading to a 0.08% exchange rate appreciation. This response is, however, very short-lived, as after the initial shock, results reflect a negative relationship in the long run. The study also finds an asymmetrical relationship between oil prices and exchange rates. These effects become more pronounced when global uncertainty is at its peak. This study aligns with studies such as those by Korley and Giouvris (2022), which highlight how shifts in oil prices affect exchange rates through trade balance and inflation pressures. By incorporating the concept of asymmetry into the study, this research yields information on how vulnerable the Rand is to sudden increases in oil prices, providing essential data for policymakers. The findings have implications for shaping policies in South Africa. Exchange rate stability strategies could involve diversifying energy sources and introducing risk hedging methods while striving for stability through flexible monetary and fiscal policies. This research also adds to the ongoing conversation about the susceptibility of emerging market currencies to external pressures, serving as a reference point for examining comparable economies. This research enriches the existing body of knowledge by addressing methodological gaps and providing a contemporary analysis of South Africa's exchange rate dynamics in a post-crisis global economy.
The relationship between social capital and mental health in South Africa: a comparison by gender.
(2024) Mancwatela , Azasiwe.; Vermaak , Claire Lauren.; Dobreva , Ralitza Vassileva.
Social capital, which encompasses the strength of social networks, trust, and community ties, has received growing attention for its influence on mental well-being. Research shows that social capital plays a key role in promoting positive mental health and protecting against mental health challenges, particularly depression. This study examines the relationship between social capital and mental health in South Africa, with a particular focus on how gender may shape these dynamics. Globally, a wide range of studies have demonstrated that social capital can protect against depression and other mental health issues. In South Africa, however, the impact of social capital is particularly complex, shaped by the country’s history of colonialism, apartheid, and social fragmentation. Understanding how social capital influences mental health in this context is crucial for addressing mental health challenges in the country. Using longitudinal data from the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS), which provides a detailed picture of South African society, this study explores the relationship between social capital and depression for African adults. Depression is measured using the CESD-10 score, which rates the extent of depression on a continuous scale, as well as a binary measure of depression. The study takes a gendered approach to examine how the relationship between social capital and mental health may differ for men and women, using statistical methods such as pooled OLS, fixed effects, and logit fixed effects models. The study finds that neighbourhood crime and violence are strongly linked to higher levels of depression for both genders, with men being more vulnerable to these environmental stressors. Neighbourhood attachment acts as a protective factor for women, reducing depression. The findings suggest that for men, religious and communal activities provide essential emotional support, while women may benefit from a wider range of social networks. Additionally, the quality of trust with neighbours plays a more significant role in men’s mental health.
Household vulnerability to food insecurity during the Covid-19 pandemic: a case of rural South Africa.
(2023) Hlope, Nonhlanhla Violet.; Bokana , Koye Gerry.
The COVID-19 pandemic has been one of the most challenging health crises of the 21st century. Not only did it affect the health condition of individuals, but it also affected the economy, leaving governments devastated and households destitute. While trying to lower the transmission of the virus, various restrictions were imposed, and this led to a food security crisis. In order to determine home susceptibility to household food insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic, this study employed a logit econometric technique. The four pillars established by the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) were utilized to comprehend the nature of food availability, accessibility, utility, and stability in order to deepen our grasp of food security. The study focused on food availability and accessibility for households. The study utilised the theoretical approach Sustainable Livelihood Framework (SLF), capital endowments. These are resources used by households to remain food resilient. Food insecurity was one of the consequences of COVID-19, specifically its impact on household capital endowments and livelihood strategies. Utilizing cross-sectional panel data from the Department of Statistics South Africa, this study used a quantitative methodology (StatsSA). The General Household Survey (GHS) 2020 from StatsSA was conducted across the country’s nine provinces. Using descriptive analysis to show the trends in food security, as well as the logit model, the study used a binary dependent variable with five asset classes of the capital endowments and vulnerabilities affecting households as empirical evidence of food insecurity in rural areas in South Africa. With the challenges brought about by the pandemic, rural households had to adjust to new methods of living. The results show that the households’ possession of the asset classes played a significant role in their ability to secure food during the Covid-19 pandemic. For example, households that were led by educated and economically active members were able to secure food during the pandemic compared to those that were not. A home that acquired its own income without relying on remittances was able to obtain food even during times when movement was restricted. Food security depended on the head of the home. Male-headed households were more likely to have access to food than female-headed households.
Oil prices and exchange rates dynamics in South Africa.
(2024) Dube , Nozipho Sinenhlanhla.; Msomi , Simiso Sinqumo Sanele Gary.
The study examines the dynamics between oil prices and exchange rates in an oil-importing country to guide policymakers in their decision making. Furthermore, findings from this study seeks to decision makers to make informed and effective control measures. For this reason, this paper studies the effect of oil prices and oil price volatility on the rand-to-dollar exchange rate. It uses South African monthly data from 2000: M1 to 2023: M12, accessed from the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis (FRED) and the World Bank. It employs the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Model and further computes impulse responses and the forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). The main findings of the study show that South African nominal exchange rates respond asymmetrically to changes in oil prices and that they tend to respond more to negative oil price shocks. The response of the South African nominal effective exchange rate to oil prices contradicts several author’s work. The results further show that oil price volatilities cause the South African rand to depreciate.
The impact of transport infrastructure investment on the output growth of rural nodal district municipalities in South Africa.
(2023) Jili , Fatima Mbali Palesa.; Gumede , Sanele.
Transport infrastructure is an integral part of economic and social development in many countries, including South Africa, and it is pivotal in transportation systems. According to economic growth theories and empirical literature, a good transportation system not only ensures lower transportation costs but enhances accessibility and output in general. Despite this, rural South Africa continues to have widespread poverty, poor infrastructure, and restricted access to essential services. This research interrogates why this phenomenon occurs by using secondary data from the National Treasury on Local Government, Statistics SA (South Africa), and the Department of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs. To date there is little literature that examines the effect of transport infrastructure investment on output growth in South Africa. Most of this literature has not assessed the underdevelopment of transport infrastructure in rural areas. In addition, no empirical studies have examined the impact of investment in transport infrastructure on output growth in rural nodal district municipalities within South Africa. This dissertation investigates how transportation infrastructure investment affects the output growth of rural nodal district municipalities in South Africa. This is accomplished by 1) investigating the relationship between transport infrastructure investment and output growth in rural nodal district municipalities, and 2) understanding the causal relationship between transportation infrastructure investment and output growth in rural nodal district municipalities. This analysis makes use of panel data from 2012 to 2019. Furthermore, Fisher-type (ADF and PP) panel unit root tests (Maddala and Wu, 1999) were used to determine whether the variables used were stationary. Moreover, the Pedroni tests (1999) were used to determine the presence of cointegration among the variables. Once the existence of cointegration was confirmed, this study employed the panel VECM. A Panel Granger-Causality test was employed to check and examine the direction of causality between transportation infrastructure investment and output growth. The study recommends that the government should improve investments in transport to improve the output of rural nodal districts.
Determining factors affecting English literacy levels at Ntuthuko Primary School.
(2018) Mtungwa, Zanele Almina.; Bozas, Alec.
ABSTRACT Learners in South Africa are performing poorly in the area reading and writing English. The South African Department of Education conducted a systemic evaluation of language competence of intermediate phase learners in South Africa and found that a large majority (63%) were below the required competence for their age level. The problem in reading and writing English is also common at Ntuthuko Primary School a public primary school in KwaZulu Natal province. For instance, an observational study and literature at the school indicates that pupils at Ntuthuko Primary School have difficulties in reading and writing English, the First Additional Language. English literacy is one of the key focuses in education. Therefore the purpose of this study is to determine factors that adversely affect English literacy levels at Ntuthuko primary school. The target population for this study were teachers Ntuthuko primary school. Non-probability sampling purposive sampling was used to select a total of 8 teachers. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were used to generate the data needed from participants to understand the research problem under study. Thematic analysis was used to analyse data. The study reveals that factors that adversely affect learners' English literacy include opportunity to learn, aptitude for learning, quality of instructions and family factors. There is need to address factors that adversely affect the English literacy of learners at Ntuthuko Primary School. In addition, there is need to encourage parents to enrol their children in R to help them develop early literacy skills, support parents to develop positive attitudes towards English literacy. Parents should also be encouraged to communicate with learners while teachers should help learners reduce English learning anxiety by showing learners that it is possible to learn to write and speak English proficiently.
Monetary policy shocks and macroeconomic performance in regionally integrated common monetary area economies.
(2021) Shumba, Theron.; Mukorera, Sophia Zivano Elixir.
The CMA (Common Monetary Area), comprising of South Africa, Lesotho, Eswatini, and Namibia, has experienced a steady improvement towards economic restructuring. This is due to recent global developments and economic integration where countries are coming together to form regional economic integration initiatives and coordinate their economic policymaking effectively. Just like the CMA countries, many countries, such as Germany, Spain, Italy, Austria, Greece, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Ireland, Portugal, Finland, France, Belgium, Slovenia, Cyprus, Latvia, Slovakia, Lithuania, Malta, and Estonia, have come together to form a strong monetary union for the purpose of having a sound and effective monetary policy.This study traces how a shock or an unanticipated change in the central bank's policy instrument of South Africa (SA_REPO) affects the selected macroeconomic variables, such as the Real Gross Domestic Product Growth (RGDP_G), inflation (INF), money supply (MS), and lending rates (LRATE), in the entire CMA region. Employing a Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive model (Panel-SVAR) and annual data from 1980–2019, the findings show that a shock in the South African repo rate (SA_REPO) significantly affected the macroeconomic variables, such as RGDP_G, INF,LRATE and MS, in the entire CMA region. The results indicate that a shock in the South African repo rate is followed by a significant decline in the economic growth (RGDP_G), a decrease in inflation, a decrease in money supply and an increase in lending rates in the entire CMA region. The study recommends that CMA monetary authorities and policymakers need to formulate policies toward cushioning the effects of unanticipated monetary policy shocks from the anchor country as well as global shocks.
Political risk, export credit insurance and trade: a gravity model analysis of South Africa.
(2020) Poswa, Thabiso Luyolo.; Tang, Vanessa.
This study adds to the literature on political risk, export credit insurance, and trade. Specifically, the study aims to consider the effect political risk and export credit insurance may have on South African exports using an extended gravity model framework and regression analysis from 1996 - 2018. Gravity models and estimation techniques differ in the literature. Methods include the Fixed Effects (FE), Random Effects (RE), and more recently, using the Poisson-Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML). The PPML is the preferred estimation technique of this study as it reduces the bias problems resulting from zero trade flows and potential heteroscedasticity (Santos Silva and Tenreyro, 2006). In addition, this is further justified as Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2011) and Martin and Pham (2020) argue that the PPML estimation technique is also more appropriate than the traditional FE and RE estimation techniques. Thus, considering these limitations, using the preferred PPML estimation technique, this study finds that political risk significantly undermines trade. However, the export credit insurance variable is insignificant and does not play an influential role in South Africa’s bilateral trade. Additionally, other attributes, including the role of market power as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), distance, and the regional groupings of African states through SADC, have important bearings. An important implication is that African countries' inability to harness the gains from trade might be rooted in factors beyond trade finance constraints and more related to political risks and geographical constraints.
Fiscal policy and public debt implications on household consumption: a case of Kenya.
(2021) Muind, Naomy Nthenya.; Mukorera, Sophia Zivano Elixir.
Fiscal policy can be applied with a stabilisation intention if government finance choices are capable of influencing household consumption behaviour. After the great depression of the 1930s, Keynes ascertained expansionary fiscal policy as the best economic stabilisation tool during a recession as it can crowd in household consumption. Empirical studies dealing with fiscal policy and public debt implications on household consumption have concentrated more on developed nations and more so, the studies conducted have been based on the assumption of an obvious symmetric relationship between household consumption and fiscal policy. The study objective was to examine if fiscal policy crowds in/crowds out household consumption, and if the Ricardian Equivalence hypothesis holds in Kenya. An empirical analysis was conducted using secondary data for the period between 1971 and 2018. The Nonlinear Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) bounds test was used to evaluate the existence of an asymmetric relationship between household consumption (dependent variable) and government expenditure, tax revenue, public debt, real GDP, and inflation (independent variables). In the short run, both expansionary and contractionary fiscal policies were found not to affect household consumption; only negative changes in inflation significantly impacted household consumption. However, expansionary fiscal policy (through the negative changes in tax revenue) was found to crowd in household consumption, while positive changes in government expenditure were found to crowd out household consumption in the long run. Positive changes in public debt were found to crowd out household consumption as well. For contractionary policies, lowering government expenditure or increasing revenue was found not to affect household consumption in the long run. Using the Wald test criteria, the independent variables were found to show an asymmetric impact on the dependent. The research findings of this study disclosed that, in the short run, fiscal policy and public debt do not affect household consumption. However, in the long run, fiscal policy and public debt were found to have a significant effect on household consumption, and therefore it was concluded that REH does not hold in the long run.
An analysis of bank competition and financial stability: evidence from the South African banking sector.
(2021) Vilakazi, Mzamo Perceviere.; Muzindutsi, Paul-Francois.; Meyiwa, Ayanda.
There is a crucial role that the banking in terms of play and serve as central to the economy. Thus, competition is vital to the banking industry. However, while competition is perceived to be vital to the banking industry, it is claimed to have both positive and negative implications on the financial stability of banks. This study investigated the link between bank competition and financial stability in South Africa. The study utilized panel regression to examine the associations between different measures of bank competition and financial stability for the major five banks over the sample period spinning from 2009 to 2019. This study employed three different models namely, the Boone indicator, Lerner index, and fluctuating H-statistics to test for bank competition theories. The study further investigated the level of competition in the South African banking sector by unpacking the concept of concentration in the South African banking sector, using Concentration Ratios (CR) and Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). The study used the Z-score and profitability as dependent variables to proxy for financial stability in the banking sector. The economic activity and the bank size were used as the control variables in the competition and stability models to account for any uncounted variables. The findings indicated that less competition in the banking market causes banks to engage in risky activities, face regulatory intervention, or, worse, fail, consistent with the competition stability hypothesis. Furthermore, more competition and access to related financial services can be applauded to produce a competing environment in the South African banking services industry. Overall, this study concluded by supporting that more competition enhances financial stability.
An analysis of household and government spending on education in South Africa.
(2021) Sejake, Alice Tlalane.; Muller, Colette Lynn.
Education is one of the largest components of government spending across developing and developed countries. Differences in spending on education are often cited as the key contributors to achievement gaps between countries and individuals in the same country. In South Africa, education has been central to government’s socio-economic redistributive policies following the end of apartheid. The problem of insufficient funding particularly for higher education combined with a high demand for education have led to shared costs between households and government. To this effect, the study analyses the relative roles of spending across schooling levels between households and the government. The study further examines attendance and expenditure pattens on education between private and public institutions. Using household level data from the South African Living Conditions Survey 2014/2015, Tobit regressions using a number of household characteristics (such as the gender of the household head, their employment status, population group, level of education, the number of children attending and settlement type of the household) are estimated to examine if and to what degree the determinants of educational expenditure differ by income groups. In addition, income elasticities of education spending are calculated to determine the sensitivity of household’s spending to changes in income. The results show that spending of richer households on education is likely to be more sensitive to changes in household income than poorer households.
The relationship between government revenue and government expenditure in South Africa: a cointegration and causality approach.
(2021) Mdluli, Mlondi Mveli.; Meyiwa, Ayanda.
The government plays an important role in stabilising the economy, by implementing adequate economic policies such as fiscal policy, which consists of government revenue and government expenditure. A budget deficit arises when government expenditure exceeds government revenue. It is important to understand the direction of causality between government revenue and government expenditure, as this will assist when suggesting the remedial approach that should be followed by budgetary authorities in order to effectively deal with the budget deficit. The main objective of this study was to determine the relationship between government revenue and government expenditure in South Africa. The study employed annual time series data from 1982 to 2019, taken from the South African Reserve Bank website and the Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The Johansen cointegration test was used to test for cointegration and the Granger causality test was used to test for causality. The empirical results found that the variables are cointegrated. Therefore, a long-run relationship exists between the variables. The results of the Granger causality test found that there is no causality between government revenue and government expenditure. Therefore, policy makers or budgetary authorities should make its revenue and expenditure decisions separately. The dissertation also went an extra step by analysing the disaggregated expenditure and revenue patterns. The reason that this was done is because the researcher wanted to examine the effects that the different types of expenditure and revenue have on South Africa’s fiscal position. Further policy recommendations were made based on the trends of the data that were observed from the disaggregated expenditure and revenue patterns.
Socio-economic determinants of the gender gap in mental health in South Africa.
(2022) Mbokazi, Amanda Thabisile.; Vermaak, Claire Lauren.
A large body of theoretical and empirical epidemiological literature investigating the relation between gender and depression find that depression is more prevalent among women than men. However, this research is mainly done in developed countries such as the US. These studies suggest that women are found to be more likely than men to experience depression. For developing countries, South Africa in particular, empirical studies investigating the gender gap in depression in South Africa are very limited. Thus, a research gap examining this relationship exists. Using data from all five waves of the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS), this study aims to investigate the gender gap in depression among South Africans and to identify social and economic factors that may explain why the gender gap occurs, given the high levels of inequalities between men and women in South Africa. This study used descriptive statistics to show characteristics of the chosen sample (individuals of ages 15 and above, with at least one reported depression score), by their gender and birth year cohort. Hierarchical linear models are used to determine the age trajectory in mental health for women and men in South Africa, the magnitude of the gender gap in depression in South Africa and how it differs across different birth cohorts, and in addition, to determine the extent at which gender differences in social and household roles, and in labour market roles, explain the gender gap in mental health. This study found that women experience more depressive symptoms than men. Thus, confirming the existence of a gender gap in depression in South Africa. In addition, the study found that gender differences in variables such decision-making power in the household, employment status and childcare responsibilities explained the differences in the depression scores between men and women.
A critical evaluation of resale price maintenance in South Africa: an efficiency interpretation.
(1991) Smith, Andrew.; Oldham, George W.
Abstract available in PDF.
Factors determining the choice of technique in the manufacturing sector in the Pietermaritzburg economic region.
(1992) Jonker, Amanda Kate.; McGrath, Michael D.
Abstract available in PDF.
Gendered trends in labour force participation and education in South Africa.
(2021) Wagner, Amy Lee.; Bruce-Brand, Janet Oriel.; Hatch, Michelle Deborah.
In many countries, including South Africa, the average educational attainment of women has surpassed that of men. Economic theory and previous literature suggest that increases in education should result in increased economic participation. Despite this, in South Africa, the labour force participation rates of women lag behind those of men. Using NIDS data, this dissertation aims to investigate why this phenomenon occurs. Whilst several international studies have used decomposition analyses to investigate the factors responsible for gender differences in participation rates, there is a dearth of South African research that does so. This dissertation, therefore, adds to the literature by investigating South African gendered trends in labour force participation and education using descriptive statistics, and regression and decomposition analyses. The gender gap in participation is decomposed at cross-sections, and the general rise in African labour force participation rates over time, are then decomposed for men and women separately. Results indicate that the educational attainments of African men and women had consistently risen between 2008 and 2017. Women are found to have attained higher average levels of education than men but remain less likely to participate in the labour force. Education is shown to be positively and significantly related to the likelihood of labour force participation for men and women. Despite this, factors including the unequal division of childcare and the fact that fewer women live in urban areas, are suggested to be reasons why the participation gender gap persists. Overall, the results of this dissertation suggest that increasing female urbanisation and educational attainments (particularly to tertiary levels), as well as reducing the uneven division of childcare between genders, is likely to increase female labour force participation rates and reduce the gender gap in participation. Despite this, the study also finds that a larger portion of this gap remains attributable to behavioural differences in the way men and women respond to their individual characteristics. This suggests that even if the characteristics of men and women are equalised, unless differences in the way men and women behave are reduced, the participation gap is likely to persist.
Market concentration : a South African perspective.
(1992) Brann, Grant Roderick.; Smith, Andrew.
Abstract available in PDF.
The structure and growth of the service sector in South Africa (1945-1990)
(1993) Teixeira, Carlos Antonio Batista.; McGrath, Michael D.
Abstract available in PDF.
Productivity through goal setting.
(1995) Hunter, Clive Robert.; Van Uytrech, Paul.; Binnendyk, Case.
Abstract available in PDF.

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