Masters Degrees (Environmental Science)

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A critical assessment of the Namibian protected area management effectiveness tracking tool.
(2010) Mulonga, Samison Nzehengwa.; Dent, Mark Clifford.
Protected Areas (PAs) are one of the most effective mechanisms for biodiversity conservation. They are found in almost every country and have been adopted by the international community through various conventions and agreements. However setting aside areas as protected areas does not automatically qualify them to be effectively managed. Research around the world has shown that some PAs are not well managed due to different reasons in different parts of the world. Therefore it is important to determine management effectiveness of PAs to ascertain whether they are managed according to the objectives for which they were created. The Management Effectiveness Tracking Tool (METT) is one of the tools developed to evaluate management effectiveness of PAs around the world. The tool has been implemented in a number of countries including Namibia where it has been modified into the Namibia Management Effectiveness Tracking Tool (NAMETT) through the United Nations Development Programme and Global Environment Facility’s Strengthening the Protected Areas Network (SPAN) project. However the effectiveness of this tool in providing necessary information about PA management effectiveness was not ascertained before implementation. The Namibian PA management authorities on the other hand need a tool for determining management effectiveness of PAs for management decision-making and as part of their obligations through international conventions which they signed. The aim of this research study was to analyse and assess the NAMETT as a management effectiveness tool for PAs in Namibia, by looking at the strength and weakness of the tool. This will inform whether its worthwhile adopting the tool as a standard management effectiveness evaluation tool for Namibia’s PAs. To accomplish this NAMETT assessment data obtained from the two NAMETT assessments undertaken by SPAN project was analysed. Furthermore different qualitative techniques were used including a semi-structured questionnaire as part of a case study approach. A comprehensive literature review was undertaken in the process and links to students undertaking similar research projects and professionals in the PA management industry were established and complemented the research data. Data obtained from NAMETT assessment undertaken by SPAN project appear to provide a picture of the different levels of management effectiveness in Namibia’s PAs suggesting the tool could be adopted for management effectiveness of Namibia’s PAs. Research data and information gathered shows that at the moment there is no management effectiveness tracking tool in Namibia. PA management authorities lack the necessary management effectiveness information for decision making. Currently only reports, the Incident Book Monitoring System (IBMS) and park inspections are the only sources of information for PA management authorities in Namibia. These tools are inadequate as they do not provide information at a strategic level which can help show trends and weakness and strength in PA management. Therefore a METT tool based on the World Commission on Protected Area’s Framework of which Namibia is a signatory is warranted. The NAMETT provides good information but lacks a link or section that should highlight the health of the ecosystem or provide information on biodiversity. Furthermore the tool has shortfalls in terms of implementation training and guidelines to assist implementers. Despite this, stakeholders who participated in the research project indicated that the tool should be adopted as the standard management effectiveness tool for PAs in Namibia. This however should come with alignment of the tool to local conditions and development of implementation guidelines as well as linkage to other form of PA management tools such as game counts and the IBMS. There is lack of robust management system for PAs in Namibia which will consolidate implementation of NAMETT. Such a system should involve planning, implementation, reporting and adaptive management. Therefore if NAMETT is to be adopted there is a need for such a system to be in place to enable data and information from the different tools to be able to complement each other for informed decision making about PA management.
A review of the fluvial geomorphology monitoring of the receiving streams of the Mooi-Mgeni [River] Transfer Scheme Phase 1.
(2009) Hunter, Alistair Malcolm Scott.; Kotze, Donovan Charles.; Dent, Mark Clifford.; Archer, Lynette Deborah.
The Mgeni River is the major water resource for the eThekwini Metropolitan and Msunduzi Municipalities. At the end of 2002, the Mooi-Mgeni Transfer Scheme Phase 1, which transfers water from the Mooi River into the Mgeni catchment to augment the water supply to this region, was completed. The interbasin transfer of water resulted in the loss of habitat, erosion of the stream channel and transformation of the riparian zone in the receiving streams. Stream regulation resulting in an altered flow regime is considered the greatest threat to a riverine environment. An Environmental Management Plan (EMP), incorporating fluvial geomorphological monitoring procedures, was implemented to monitor the impact of the transfer on the receiving streams, the Mpofana and Lions Rivers, and to determine the rate and magnitude of erosion. A comparison of the geomorphological monitoring procedure of the EMP with best practice geomorphological monitoring derived from a review of the national and international stream geomorphological literature was conducted in this study. In addition, the implementation of the EMP geomorphological monitoring procedures was described and onsite observations of physical impacts on the receiving streams were completed. The geomorphological monitoring of the EMP included the use of erosion pins, survey of stream cross-sections and fixed-point photography. Photographs and data were collected from February 2003 to June 2006. The comparison of these monitoring methods against stream assessment best practices revealed the strengths and weaknesses of the geomorphological monitoring implemented in the receiving streams. Several key weaknesses were revealed. Firstly, an inadequate number of stream cross sections was included in the monitoring procedures. Secondly, although the erosion pins indicated some general trends in the erosion of the stream channel, they did not give a true impression of the rate and magnitude of change in slope and channel width of the stream, and the location of the erosion pins sites did not take into account the actual direction of flow during transfer as erosion pin sites were selected during low flow conditions. In addition, it was difficult to determine whether the erosion pins had been lost due to erosion or to turbulence. The results were difficult to assess and did not show whether the erosion was localised at the pins or the section of bank or stream profile. Thirdly, analysis of platform changes in the stream channel (e.g. through a comparison of aerial photograph sets) was lacking and no attempt was made to integrate the results from the different methods. Overall, the study concluded that the geomorphological monitoring of the EMP was limited, and it did not highlight the rate and magnitude of erosion in the receiving streams. Based on the findings of this study, recommendations are provided for geomorphological monitoring of the receiving streams of the Mooi Mgeni Transfer Scheme.
A systems-thinking based evaluation of predator conflict management on selected South African farms.
(2008) Snow, Timothy V.
The backbone of this study was a systems thinking based analysis of the management and control of predators as practiced in South Africa since the advent of Europeans in 1652. The first bounties were introduced for a variety of animal species in 1656. Many species became labeled as vermin and were persecuted, often with the intention of eradication. A variety of controls have been applied, of which many have not kept pace with contemporary thinking or technology, and which by simply killing predators fail to address the crux of the issue of predator – livestock conflict. Many of the methods used cannot be applied to specifically remove an individual damage-causing animal. Considerable collateral ecological damage is inflicted by the killing of animals regarded as innocent bystanders. The objective of the analysis was to highlight the futility of temporary solutions which fail to resolve the conflict in the long term. These quick fixes frequently perpetuate an ecological imbalance which exacerbates the predator – livestock conflict. The analysis used raw data from a questionnaire survey conducted by the Poison Working Group of the Endangered Wildlife Trust (EWT-PWG) (2003). The EWT-PWG intended to assess pesticide abuse as toxicant for predators by farmers, and to identify all control methods used. The data forthcoming was Cartesian in nature and a fixed snap-shot in time. This study sought to identify the root cause of the conflict by applying systems thinking which added the dimension of cause and effect interrogation. The study categorised and described predator conflict management methods as lethal or preventative, and assessed each category in archetypal terms from a systems thinking perspective. It also sought to identify leverage points, or small changes which have profound effects, to stimulate a change in approach to humanpredator conflict management. In order to assess and illustrate the positive change brought about by application of preventative methods, a small group of farmers who had initiated changes in their predator conflict management over the five years subsequent to the EWTPWG survey were selected from the original group for reassessment. Through evaluation of predator conflict management methods from a systems thinking perspective, and by probing learning processes, the shortcomings or failure of inappropriate management responses to conflict situations were shown to exacerbate conflicts. Contrarily, it was illustrated that application of systems thinking and a process of addressing the root cause of conflict issues in predator conflict management, was a longer term solution. The study illustrated that application of long term proactive prevention and conflict avoidance principles, can offer long term solutions for predator conflict managers.
Addressing genetics misconceptions with an educational game.
(2008) Baxter, David.; Amory, Alan M.
This dissertation describes the design, development and formative evaluation of an educational adventure game entitled Food for Thought to address student misconceptions in genetics within the context of a development research paradigm, and reflects on the lessons learnt during the process. The current investigation was a response to an assessment of learning misconceptions in genetics. Several factors were identified as contributing to these problems with a focus on the abstract nature of the subject and the decontextualised manner in which students encounter these concepts. The tenacity of the problem suggested the need for of a novel intervention. A constructivist concept of learning emphasises active learners internally constructing their own meaning in rich complex environments. While not a theory of teaching, it offers a number of principles to guide the design of learning environments. Elements from computer based adventure games embody aspects of these principles and offer possibilities of developing a tool to address student misconceptions. Here, learners may explore biological concepts as they engage in contextual problems embedded in the narrative structure of a detailed and immersive virtual world. The implementation of the design was guided by a number of conceptual models, namely the Game Object Model (GOM) and Game Achievement Model (GAM) which clarify the relationship between pedagogical principles and game design elements. The identification of specific learning misconceptions provided the basis for developing a set of learning objectives for the game which were used as a foundation for the design of the environment, which was then created using a combination of commercial and proprietary 3D graphic and image editing software. Both the GAM and GOM are effective tools for categorizing a variety of different components in a very complex development. A formative evaluation of the game was undertaken probing both expert and user (student) responses through post-gameplay questionnaires and interviews. The game was favourably received, with feedback and suggestions on improvements. Most notable was the need for greater guidance in the game environment. In addition Activity theory was employed as framework of analysis. Activity systems for both players and the designer were developed and contradictions within and between them analysed. These were used to modify the original designer activity system and in so doing refine the practice of game design in the context of the development research paradigm.
Addressing poverty and local livelihoods in the context of conservation : a case study of the proposed Ngelengele Nature Reserve.
(2006) Godinho, Elizeth.; Nyambe, Nyambe.; Densham, Drummond.
Many people in Africa, due to high levels of poverty, rely directly on natural resources and the environment for their livelihoods. Different mechanisms have been employed over the years to address poverty and local livelihoods in the context of conservation. Community Conservation Areas and the sustainable livelihood approach are examples of these mechanisms. Increasingly, these and other mechanisms have reinforced the view that unless the risks and opportunities presented by poverty to local livelihoods are addressed, many conservation efforts are bound to fail. The research reported here was based on the premise that appropriate mechanisms that explicitly address poverty and local livelihoods are a necessary prerequisite to successfully engaging local people in conservation. Such mechanisms assure the sustainability of local livelihoods and present opportunities for conservation initiatives to succeed within the context of human societies that are dependent on associated ecosystems and resources. The Maloti-Drakensberg mountains region in South Africa was the study site and the proposed Ngelengele Nature Reserve, a Community Conservation Area, was used as a case study. The amaHlubi community people constituted the study's respondents. The study was largely qualitative, drawing on both primary and secondary sources of data in the form of interviewer-administered questionnaire and documentary analysis respectively. Field observations and discussions with respondents complemented the interviews. By adopting the sustainable livelihoods framework to understand and analyse the livelihoods of the amaHlubi community, the study highlighted concerns about livelihood assets with the conclusion that there is a high dependence on natural resources mainly for domestic purposes, and in general most of the assets are non existent. The study also highlighted the level of awareness and community support towards Ngelengele Nature Reserve, as well as the reserve's implications on local livelihoods. Although some stated that the objectives of Ngelengele Nature Reserve remain unclear, the majority of respondents showed high expectations and support for the project.
Agrohydrological sensitivity analyses with regard to projected climate change in Southern Africa.
(1997) Lowe, Kerry Lynne.; Schulze, Roland Edgar.
Climate change resulting from the augmented "greenhouse effect" is likely to have significant effects on the terrestrial hydrological system and the social and ecological systems linked to it. Climate change could potentially affect inputs to the agrohydrological system such as rainfall, temperature and potential evaporation; processes within the system such as vegetation dynamics and crop production; and hydrological responses such as runoff, recharge of soil water into the vadose zone and net irrigation demand. This study outlines the use of a daily water budget model, ACRU, and SCENGEN, a climate change scenario generator, to assess potential impacts of global climate change on agricultural production and hydrological responses in southern Africa. This study also considers potential impacts of climate change on plant response which may determine the extent of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural production and hydrological response. Two approaches to climate change impact studies are adopted for use in this study. The first, and more conventional approach considers the impact of a specified climate change scenario, in this case developed with the use of SCENGEN, on the terrestrial hydrological system. The second approach considers the degree of climate change, in this case precipitation change, required to perturb the hydrological system significantly in the various climate regimes found in southern Africa. A comparative analysis of the sensitivity of selected hydrological responses to climate change produced the following results, in ascending order of sensitivity: net irrigation demand < stormflow response < runoff < recharge into the vadose zone. The impacts of a specific climate scenario change on hydrological responses produced unexpected results. A general decrease in mean annual precipitation over southern Africa is predicted for the future with SCENGEN. However, widespread simulated increases in runoff, soil moisture content in the A- and B-horizon and recharge into the vadose zone are obtained. These increases are a product of the CO2 "fertilisation" feedback, which is incorporated as a maximum transpiration suppression routine, in the ACRU model. Net irrigation demand, which is not linked to this routine, is simulated to increase in the future.
Air quality management in the uMhlathuze municipality using air dispersion modelling.
(2007) Haripursad, Yegambal.; Diab, Roseanne Denise.
Air pollution has increased over time due to human population growth, industrialisation and other economic activities which have led to global and localised deterioration in air quality. The uMhlathuze Municipality, located on the KwaZulu-Natal North Coast is one such local area that has a rapidly developing Industrial Development Zone, currently comprising many large and small scale industries. These large-scale operations are amongst South Africa’s largest process industries and operate continuous combustion processes which release significant quantities of air pollutants into the atmosphere. These pollutants include reduced sulphur gases, mercaptans, hydrogen sulphide, sulphur dioxide (SO2), sulphur trioxide, carbon dioxide, particulate fluoride and ammonia. In light of the promulgation of the National Environmental Management: Air Quality Act (AQA) of 2004 and the need to assess ambient air quality, the contribution of air dispersion modelling to ambient air quality management in the uMhlathuze Municipality was assessed using SO2 as an indicator pollutant. The Gaussian puff urban air dispersion model called Calpuff was used to model five scenarios including a control run with actual emissions data; a worst-case run using permitted emissions data; and three emissions reduction scenarios using 25%, 50% and 75% reductions of the permitted data.. The results of these modelling scenarios were compared with results of other modelling studies recently conducted in the uMhlathuze Municipality, as well as with the South African Ambient Air Quality Standards (SAAAQS) for SO2. The results revealed that the permitted emissions scenario led to exceedances of the SAAAQS 1-hour and 24-hour average concentrations over most of the uMhlathuze Municipal area. The use of the permitted emissions values produced higher SO2 concentrations over the study area than the control run that comprised current emissions values. The control scenario produced similar results to the scenario in which there was a 50% reduction in permitted emissions data and suggests that the industries are operating at half of their permitted levels of SO2 emissions. The reduction of the permitted emission by 75% shows a significant decrease in the area exceeding the SAAAQS 1-hour standard, and compliance with the SAAAQS 24-hour and annual average standards. The results of this study for the control scenario based on actual emissions were higher than previous studies conducted in uMhlathuze due to a larger quantity of SO2 emissions used in the modelling exercises, different meteorological data sets and different air dispersion models used. However, there is a close correspondence between the Airshed (2006) results and this study when similar quantities of SO2 emissions were modelled in the permitted emissions scenario. In view of the exceedances experienced in the control run and permitted emissions scenarios, it is likely that under the AQA, some reduction in emissions will be required. In line with the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism National Framework classification system, the City of uMhlathuze is likely to fall under a Class 4 area, in which ambient concentrations of SO2 can pose a threat to the health and well-being of people. Immediate air quality management action plans that have specific timeframes for compliance with the ambient standards are required. The National Framework notes that the air quality impact of an industry will be assessed before an Atmospheric Emission License is granted and implies that each industry is required to undertake an air quality specialist study to determine its individual impact on ambient air quality. The air quality specialist study should include air dispersion modelling to assess the ambient SO2 concentrations; a health risk assessment based on the results of the dispersion modelling; and mitigation measures that are required to ensure compliance with ambient standards through the use of the Best Practicable Environmental Option (BPEO).
An investigation into using GIS in electrification and network planning in rural KwaZulu-Natal.
(2006) Barnard, Jennifer B.; Ahmed, Fethi B.
The South African Government has set a target of universal access to basic electricity by the year 2012. Free basic electricity is defined as the amount of electricity sufficient to provide basic lighting, media access, water heating and ironing with on-grid electricity; or basic lighting and media access for a non-grid system. Eskom Distribution, in conjunction with local municipalities, is responsible for the outstanding electrification predominantly in rural areas. In KwaZulu-Natal, mountainous terrain and scattered settlement patterns of communities complicate the achievement of this goal. This study was aimed at using GIS to address the urgent need to plan electrification, firstly by identifying areas that need electrification and secondly by prioritising those areas according to set principles. Electrification areas were effectively identified and prioritised from both a need and capability of supply aspect. The study then aimed at designing the shortest networks from the grid to those identified electrification areas. To determine electrification areas spatially, electoral areas (EAs) demarcated as rural during the run up to the 1994 elections were used to identify rural areas; and Ethekwini Metropolitan Municipality, current electrification projects, reserves and a buffer zone around existing transformers excluded. Household point data was used to polygonize the remaining area, and those polygons were aggregated on their calculated area to create future rural electrification areas (FREA). A points and weighting system; based on one initially used in Namibia and further developed in an electrification planning model by RAPS Consulting, CSIR and DME to prioritise villages for electrification; was applied to calculate point scores for each FREA and other criteria such as distance from a network with capacity considered to determine a prioritised list of FREA that can be electrified immediately. Roads, land cover, household positions and slope were used to design the shortest path from the grid to the three highest scoring FREA. Each layer was reclassified, ratings applied and the layers combined to successfully determine the final path in terms of the criteria used. Interest in using GIS for spatial planning has led to a GIS Initiative Group (GISIG) being formed at Eskom Distribution in Eastern Region to address data collection, co-ordination of planning, tools written previously but never implemented being re-evaluated and, more recently, new tools being designed. However, much is still needed in terms of research, resolving of data quality issues, testing of points and weighting systems, and for functionally independent sections to work together on making changes to age-old system structures and processes before any of the recommendations resulting from this study can be effectively implemented.
Analysis and mapping of basic communal land administration systems using participatory GPS and GIS : a case study of Makurung Village.
(2006) Maleka, Mampone Morris.; Rugege, Denis.
Participatory GPS and GIS mapping is a mapping process that involves active participation of the local communities with the assistance of outsiders who are experts in the field. The objective of Participatory GPS and GIS mapping is to produce a technically accurate and socially acceptable participatory map and to facilitate skills transfer to the participant community. A basic communal land administration system is a land administration structure responsible for the administration of a local, elementary area of jurisdiction (a village) occupied by a tribe whose rights to land are derived from shared rules determining access and is normally led by an Induna. The analysis of such a structure could provide a foundation for the implementation of Communal Land Rights Act, 2004 (Act No 11 of 2004) that is, the transfer of communal lands to communities. A sub-metre accuracy is obtainable after post-processing differential correction as acclaimed by Trimble on the Geo-XT™ GPS unit and proven in the Ukulinga case study. Participatory GPS and GIS mapping guarantees effective and efficient skills transfer to participant communities and accurate recording of boundary data. Maps produced through Participatory GPS and GIS mapping are widely acceptable since they are preceded by discussions and subsequent consensus on boundary data points prior to actual recording, thereof. The study was designed to analyze basic communal land administration systems and to develop a methodology for mapping them. A successful implementation of the Communal Land Rights Act, 2004 required spatial and related information on land administration structures A Participatory mapping methodology designed was tested in two case studies and found to be reasonably accurate.
Analysis of geographical and temporal patterns of malaria transmission in Limpopo Province, South Africa using Bayesian geo-statistical modelling.
(2013) Mgabisa, Aphelele Ronnie.; Gebreslasie, Michael Teweldemedhin.
South Africa is at the southern fringe of sub-Saharan African countries which persist in experiencing malaria transmission. The purpose of the study is to analyse the geographical and temporal patterns of malaria transmission from 2000 to 2011 using Bayesian geostatistical modelling in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Hereafter, develop malaria case data-driven spatio-temporal models to assess malaria transmission in Limpopo Province. Malaria case data was acquired from the South African Medical Research Council (MRC). Population data was acquired from AfriPopo; and Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Land Cover data were acquired from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS). Rainfall, Altitude and distance to water bodies’ data were acquired from African Data Dissemination Service (ADDS), United States Geological Survey (USGS) and Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), respectively. Bayesian spatio-temporal incidence models were formulated for Gibbs variable selection and models were fitted using the best set of environmental factors. Modelbased predictions were obtained over a regular grid of 1 x 1km. spatial resolution covering the entire province and expressed as rates of per 1 000 inhabitants for the year 2010. To assess the performance of the predicted malaria incidence risk maps, the predictions and field observations were compared. The best set of environmental factors selected by variable selection was Altitude and the night temperature of two months before the case was reported. The environmental factors were then used for model fitting and all of the covariates were important on malaria risk. Predictions were done using all the environmental factors. The predictions showed that Vhembe and Mopani district municipalities have high malaria transmission as compared to other district municipalities in Limpopo Province. Assessment of predictive performance showed scatter plots with the coefficient of determination ( R² ). The values representing the statistical correlation represented by the coefficient of determination ( R² ) were 0.9798 (January), 0.8736 (February), 0.8152 (March), 0.8861 (April), 0.9949 (May), 0.3838 (June), 0.7794 (July), 0.9235 (September), 0.8966 (October), 0.9834 (November) and 0.8958 (December). August had two values reported and predicted which resulted in R² of 1. The numbers of the The produced malaria incidence maps can possibly be considered as one of the baselines for future malaria control programmes. The results highlighted the risk factors of malaria in Limpopo Province which are the most important characteristics of malaria transmission.
Analysis of rhino poaching incidences and management strategies in South Africa.
(2016) Moneron, Sade Leigh.; Ngetar, Njoya Silas.
The illegal hunting and global trade in wildlife and wildlife products is a transnational, highly organised crime that threatens the survival of many endangered species. The rhinoceros is a well-known example of this trade as the demand for rhino horn for use in East Asia has resulted in the global decline of rhino populations, resulting in the Western Black rhino in Africa (Diceros bicornis longipes) officially being declared extinct in 2011. Although poaching has always existed, the number of African rhinos killed by poachers has escalated in the past eight years with at least 1 338 rhinos killed by poachers across Africa in 2015. This is the highest level since the rhino poaching crisis began in 2008, resulting in at least 5 940 African rhinos being killed. The majority of these incidences occurred within South Africa. South Africa plays a leading role in the conservation of the African rhino, currently conserving 83% of the African rhino population. However, it has been suggested that should poaching continue to increase as it has done over the past few years the rhino population in South Africa may begin to decline as early as 2016. South Africa’s upsurge in rhino poaching over the last few years has given rise to a kaleidoscope of debates on how to reduce poaching. An understanding of the different management strategies and their effectiveness would play a large role in identifying which method or combinations of methods work best to reduce poaching. The second chapter of this dissertation thus critically analyses the past, current and proposed strategies that are relevant to reducing incidences of rhino poaching using empirical literature from various scholars and stakeholders and attempts to provide insight into which strategy or combination of strategies is best suited to reduce poaching. As poaching involves a combination of aspects, it is clear that no one strategy or management tool will address all of these aspects on its own, and if implemented in isolation will not be successful. A combination of strategies that address all aspects of poaching needs to be working concurrently to decrease poaching levels. Law enforcement is one such management strategy crucial in the reduction of poaching and with increasing poaching incidents, law enforcement efforts in the form of deployment of anti-poaching unit, focused on high risk areas would provide for a more efficient and effective use of resources in reducing poaching incidences. The third chapter of this dissertation sought to investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of rhino poaching in the Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park (HiP) between 1990 and 2013 and examine the relationships between observed patterns of poaching and biophysical and human variables using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The results reveal poaching hot spots, and spatial and temporal variation in poaching incidences. Biophysical and human variables were also found to influence poaching densities differently depending on where they occurred spatially or temporally. The successful use of GIS in this analysis validates its potential as a geospatial tool for understanding the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of rhino poaching in the HiP. Understanding these patterns is crucial for future anti-poaching planning and mitigation of poaching activities with protected areas.
Analysis of the geographical patterns of malaria transmission in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa using Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling.
(2013) Ndlovu, Noluthando.; Gebreslasie, Michael Teweldemedhin.; Vounatsou, Penelope.
Malaria is one of the most important public health issues that is still affecting millions of people around the world, especially in Africa. Africa accounted for 80% of the 216 million cases worldwide and 91% of deaths. It poses serious economic burdens on communities and countries at large. However, through temporal and spatial mapping of the disease populations at risk can be identified timeously and resources distributed accordingly. Since malaria is a climatic disease geostatistical approaches can be utilised in modelling its spatial distribution. Bayesian geostatistical methods enable the mathematical descriptions of the environment-disease association. Significant environmental predictors of malaria transmission can be identified which can also allow for the development of a malaria epidemic prediction model. This model can serve as a surveillance system for early detection and containment of the disease. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the complex dynamics of malaria transmission so malaria control programmes can be more effective and efficient in managing this public health issue. In South Africa, malaria is transmitted in 3 provinces: KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga and Limpopo. Although malaria is highly seasonal in these areas and KwaZulu-Natal has experienced tremendous achievements in decreasing morbidity and mortality due to malaria, it still remains in an unstable condition that needs constant control and surveillance. The aim of this study was to investigate which environmental/climatic variables are drivers of malaria incidence in KwaZulu-Natal and subsequently develop methods to produce risk maps using Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling. It emerged from the research that the main environmental/climatic drivers of malaria incidence in KwaZulu-Natal were the day temperature of the previous month, altitude and forest land cover type. This was due to the different ways these three factors affect the three-way interaction of the vector, the parasite and the human host. The predicted risk maps showed that incidence rates ranged from 0.2 to 5 per 1000 inhabitants in the study area. This prediction was based on only the climatic factors, however, non-climatic factors also affect malaria transmission through vector control strategies like Indoor Residual Spraying among others.
Analyzing an orthophoto mapping system using system analysis, SWOT and client satisfaction survey : a case study of the Chief Directorate of Surveys and Mapping, Republic of South Africa
(2010) Mnyengeza, Mnqweno.; Chimhamhiwa, Dorman.
An orthophoto map is made from a combination of different geospatial datasets such as relief, imagery, powerlines and annotation. These data sets are usually generated by different divisions within national mapping agencies. Often, when an orthophoto mapping project is to be undertaken, other functions within and outside the system, are actuated. Examples of such functions include; photogrammetric scanning, digital elevation capturing, aerial triangulation, ancillary data and imagery acquisition and map compilation. This research is underpinned by the hypothesis that different components that supply data required for generating orthophoto maps do not work as a coherent whole. This behaviour impacts negatively on the production of orthophoto maps as well as the quality of the end product and can have spill over effects on service delivery. In this research, systems analysis, client satisfaction survey and SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis are used as a collective set of tools to analyze an orthophoto mapping system (OMS) in order to mitigate this unwanted behaviour. The case of orthophoto map production at the Chief Directorate of Surveys and Mapping (CDSM) in South Africa is used. First, systems analysis, which uses the Data Flow Diagram (DFD) technique, is employed to depict the system‘s data stores, processes and data flows. This approach helps to show how the current system works thereby assisting to pin point areas that require improvement. After presenting the system ‘s processes, data stores and data flows, a client satisfaction survey, built on the criteria of; accuracy, completeness, correctness and accessibility of geospatial datasets, is conducted on one of the data stores – the Topographical Information System (TIS) database. Finally, a SWOT analysis is then done on the whole OMS to evaluate the internal and external environment under which the current system operates in. Gaps are identified and recommendations suggested. Although in this case, the recommendations are built based on the CDSM case study, it is believed they can benefit other OMS’s in similar operating conditions elsewhere.
The anthropogenic impacts of urbanization and industrialisation on the water quality, ecology and health status of the Palmiet River catchment in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal.
(2005) Naidoo, Kushela.
Water, a fundamental and irreplaceable resource, is an all-pervasive issue that underpins the social fabric of every society. Rapid population growth and expansion of human activities increases the amount of waste and pollution generated and many local authorities are encountering serious water pollution problems, often concentrated in the lower reaches of catchments and adjacent coastal areas. This problem is predominantly acute in urbanized catchment areas, where waste is concentrated into localized areas, and the authorities are constantly under pressure to provide adequate management and mitigation measures. The Palmiet River system, located in the northern fringe of the city of Durban and draining the highly industrialized Pinetown region in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, illustrates a system that has been altered due to human impacts, particularly in its headwaters where the industrial sites are located and, in the lower catchment where a densely populated informal settlement occurs. A range of chemical and biotic indicators were monitored seasonally and these confirm the influence of the aforementioned human impacts on the quality of the Palmiet River system. Results from the present study were compared with studies conducted over a period of two decades and clearly demonstrate a pattern of increasing pollution loads for the upper and lower parts of the catchment. This study confirms that the Palmiet River is severely degraded in its lower reaches whilst the middle reaches of the catchment where a nature reserve is located is still in a fairly pristine condition. Additionally, the Palmiet River issues discussed in this thesis have direct impacts on the estuarine and adjacent marine ecosystems.
Application of a framework to assess wildlife policy and its implementation in Mocambique.
(2004) Soto, Bartolomeu.; Breen, Charles Mackie.
Wildlife management in Moryambique has had a troubled history. The end of civil war and installment of a democratic Government provided opportunity to redefine policy and implementation of conservation. Weakened by civil strife and with wildlife decimated in many areas, Government sought approaches to conservation that would promote participation by investors and civil society, particularly rural communities. The intention is to acknowledge the rights of rural people to resources and the benefits that can accrue from their use. Partnerships are seen as a way in which Government can bring the required financial and human resources to bear whilst at the same time engendering positive attitudes to conservation in general, and to policy in particular. The purpose of this research is to examine, using two case study conservation areas, the consequences of Government's attempts to implement its policy. The philosophical basis for the research is that policy reform and implementation should be envisaged as a complex system comprising many interactions and that when this complexity is not acknowledged and addressed systemically, it predisposes the process of policy reform and implementation to failure. A principal cause of failure is considered to be that assumptions are not made explicit and this results in development and application of an approach that does not accord with reality. Further, because of the networked nature of the system, failure at one point can be magnified as its consequences are propagated through the system. A conceptual framework for policy reform and implementation is developed. This exposes some critical assumptions about Government's capacity to implement policy and the ways in which implementation is experienced by stakeholders, especially local communities. Context is provided by tracing the evolution of approaches to conservation in Moryambique from the pre-colonial era to the present. The findings are that Government does not have the capacity to implement its conservation policy and this is shown to have serious implications for how local people perceive and respond to Government approaches to conservation. Causal factors are analysed and assessed. It is concluded that the process of policy reform and implementation is complex but that a systems approach provides a simple and easily comprehended way in which this complexity can be interpreted and taken into account with potentially very significant benefits. Perceptions are shown to be a powerful determinant of response to policy reform and implementation. As these are commonly a basis for destructive tensions between parties, it is suggested that research directed at defining the principles that should underpin management of perceptions and tensions should be encouraged.
The application of route network analysis to commercial forestry transportation in the north coast of Kwazulu-Natal.
(2005) Stewart, Lissa Anne.; Ahmed, Fethi B.; Watson, Helen Kerr.
Transportation costs of commercial forestry farms in South Africa are generally very high, causing great economic concern. The current roads of the majority of commercial farms, used to transport timber from the compartments to the market (mill), form part of a 'cob-web', high density network. In order to optimise transportation, it is beneficial to eradicate such a high density of road, achieved by adopting the most effective methods and technology. Such methods include that of Route Network Analysis (RNA) which designs a minimalist, yet cost-effective road pattern of a forestry farm. The aim of the study was to determine what data are required to optimise economic and timber transportation, based on the commercial forestry farm of Ntonjaneni, located in Zululand, KwaZulu-Natal. Route Network Analysis, which incorporates Geographical Information Systems (GIS) in addition to the current information pertaining to a network, was applied to the Ntonjaneni Farm. The existing data consisted of cadastral shapefile data containing relative attribute data, as well as Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), which were manipulated in order to create a realistic spatial representation of the farm's current transportation network. In addition, the development of project management guidelines to assist the efficient implementation and completion of the analysis was undertaken. The most ideal route from the plantations to the mill was created, avoiding the environmentally buffered rivers and those slopes which were too steep. As a result, the network was greatly improved. The irrelevant roads were removed, and replaced with a less dense route for timber transportation. The results of the RNA reveal that RNA, completed by the project management guidelines, is an effective and environmentally sound means of optimising commercial forestry transportation. However, data relating to the rivers and road slope need to be updated in order for RNA to be effectively performed during future studies.
Application of the concept of the sustainable city in low-income housing areas : a case study of Ambleton housing area, Msunduzi Municipality.
(2006) Alokwu, Cyprian Obiora.; Fincham, Robert John.; Lawhon, Mary.
The growing urban population in South Africa has challenged the government's ability to provide adequate housing for the urban poor. In order to respond to the challenges, the government embarked on the initiative of providing Low - Income Housing (L1H). There is, however, a growing concern that these L1H developments may not be sustainable due to a number of reasons, including issues relating to land use and sub- standard construction of houses. There is need to make these L1H areas more sustainable. This can be done by employing the concept of the sustainable city. The concept in recent times has been considered by many people as an ideal to which cities should aspire. The main thrust of this study is to evaluate the concept of the sustainable city in the context of L1H in Ambleton, a settlement constructed by the government to relocate people from illegal, informal settlements within the inner city especially those found adjacent to the industrial areas. The study focuses on the issues of land use in L1H. This focus on land use is underpinned by the fundamental views that land use contributes to urban sustainability. As a result, it is necessary to examine ways in which land is being used in L1H areas and see if the current land use in Ambleton contributes to sustainability. The study shows that some people are satisfied with the amount of open spaces around their houses. Many others, however, are not satisfied because they considered open spaces in .their yard inadequate. Furthermore, public open spaces are not properly managed because there are no services to manage it. In the same vein, people have to travel long distances to get to their places of work and town for economic and leisure activities. Similarly, the provision of waste services and medical services in the study area is grossly inadequate. The study argues on that basis that the above scenario is not in accordance with the concept of sustainable city and can not therefore contribute to, the sustainability of the area of study.
Application of theory U to assess the implementation possibilities of a co-existence agenda at Panna Tiger Reserve, India.
(2012) Kolipaka, Shekhar Srinivas.; Dent, Mark Clifford.
This thesis develops understanding on the prospects of successfully implementing a co-existence buffer zone agenda around the Panna Tiger Reserve by its management. Fostering co-existence of humans and wildlife in the buffer zones and multi-use forests around tiger reserves is suggested as a way forward by the National Tiger Conservation Authority (NTCA) of India for ensuring the long term survival of the tiger species in India. The proposed shift involves change from managing tigers in national parks with minimum human interference to the managing tigers at larger land units promoting co-existence. While successful implementation of the proposed change may have potential benefits for tigers and people, the failure to implement the proposed co-existence agenda will be an opportunity lost to revive the tiger species in India. To provide understanding on the above described situation, the main research objective of this study was to use Theory U lenses to assess the potential of key stakeholders to engage in transformational change towards co-existence. The second research objective was to identify the barriers, as perceived by the stakeholders seeking transformational change, to co-existence. To gain insights into the study objectives, stakeholders from the five groups were interviewed using structured questions, subjected to group meetings and were also observed as they performed in daily life. The collected information allowed an assessment of prospects of implementing change to co-existence. The study findings suggest that the concept of co-existence buffer zone is not well supported by majority of the stakeholder groups at Panna. Stakeholder interrelationships leading to lack of trust, existing conflicts, leadership deficiencies, fear of economic repercussion and poor communication created barriers between various stakeholder groups. Some of the barriers, for example, lack of trust and existing conflicts between stakeholder groups distanced the groups from each other and reduced mutual cooperation, vital for co-existence to succeed. Study findings also revealed that some stakeholder groups viewed the co-existence concept positively. Findings suggest that some stakeholder’s placed importance on issues such as, aesthetics, ethics and moral principles, spiritual values, customs and cultural beliefs and economic incentives. These issues perceived within the context of co-existence in the buffer zone may have incited positive feelings towards the co-existence concept. When stakeholders were assessed through the mental lenses of Theory U the study findings suggest that stakeholder groups differed in their ability to change and also support the proposed change to co-existence at Panna Tiger Reserve. Study findings suggest that members of the Landlord and Villager stakeholder groups may be most receptive to change. Members of these stakeholder groups, through their thinking and actions, demonstrated ability to support the proposed change to co-existence in the buffer zone of the Panna Tiger Reserve. The Politician and Tourist lodge groups demonstrated levels of openness to change their thinking towards co-existence but did not show enough evidence during the study to suggest that they could undertake actions and contribute towards transformational change at Panna. This means that though members could mentally think along the lines of the proposed change their ability to directly take actions to achieve change, was at the time of the study, limited. The Panna Tiger Reserve management group members revealed least ability to shift their thinking from their existing mind set towards co-existence scenarios. Their ability to take actions that led towards achieving change to co-existence was also restricted. Based on the study findings it may be suggested that Panna Tiger Reserve Management ability to directly contribute to successful implementation of the proposed co-existence buffer zone agenda at Panna Tiger Reserve may be the lowest amongst the five stakeholder groups.
Are farmers changing from food production to biofuel production? : a case study of the northern agricultural region of KwaZulu-Natal.
(2009) Mbele, Fezeka Faith.; Rugege, Denis.; Chimhamhiwa, Dorman.
A study was conducted to establish whether farmers are changing land use from growing food crops for human consumption to biofuel production to an extent that could significantly affect food security. Following concerns in the recent years about the excessive global demand for fossil fuel that drove prices to very high levels, biofuel alternatives derived mainly from agricultural food crops such as soybean, maize and sugarcane are being pursued in many countries. This study targeted a sample emerging farmers in the Northern Agricultural Region, one of the four administrative areas for agricultural extension services in the province of KwaZulu-Natal. Biophysical suitability for change from maize food crop to soybean for biofuel land use was assessed using the locally developed Bio-resource spatial database. A sample of 11 emerging farmers was interviewed regarding land use change of food to biofuel production, farming operations, inputs and yields. Emerging farmers are black African farmers who were previously deprived of land and institutional support in developing into commercial farmers, but who are now recipients of land as well as financial and technical agricultural support services. This group of farmers arguably comes from vulnerable communities who depend on food crops for subsistence and who could influence change in land use with food security implications in their communities. Further information was obtained from an agricultural consultant regarding 7 commercial farms producing soybean biofuel. The study revealed that the Northern Agricultural Region had adequate suitability for profitable soybean production for biofuel. Furthermore, the majority of farmers interviewed had changed from maize production for human consumption to soybean production for biofuel. All the farmers interviewed applied farming operations with modern technology including land preparation and planting, fertilisation, irrigation, crop protection and harvesting. The majority interviewed farmers reported varied total earnings from soybean derived biofuel ranging from R 50, 000 to R 500, 000. The variability in earnings is consistent with the varied range of ages as attributable to experience and with the varied levels of education which may be related to management skills. Although the sample of farmers interviewed was too small to provide statistically valid conclusions, they represent an important sector in the farming community that shows future directions of food versus biofuel productions. The farmers indicated that they are fully aware of food production requirements and will endeavour to balance the two through soybean-maize crop rotation, a practice that not only ensures food security but also improves soil quality.
Assessing changes in land use and land cover using remote sensing : a case study of the Umhlanga Ridge sub-place.
(2015) Kercival, Nadira.; Gebreslasie, Michael Teweldemedhin.
Land has proven to be a key component in the development of the human population and is viewed as one of the most significant natural resources currently available. This observation brings into question the recent debates surrounding the pressures people tend to impose on the land, which have resulted in transformations in its physical landscape and usage. Mans impact on the earth in terms of the transformations in land cover and land use have rapidly increased over the years. However, as a result of these continuous land transformations, planning and designing sustainable urban development has become challenging due to the additional fact that the available mapped resources of the land can be outdated or of very poor quality. One of the main methods of depicting the significant changes in land cover or land usage is through the utilization of remote sensing and its key application of change detection. Change detection enables the user to analyse the transformations of land use and land cover as it is able to provide consistent coverage at short intervals. One of Durban’s greatest cases of land transformations is change which has occurred in Umhlanga and its surrounding areas. Umhlanga started out as an area of tremendous agricultural value to the South African economy by producing substantial amount of sugar from its vast lands of sugarcane. Over time however, Umhlanga began to develop its coastline and gradually it expanded the transition until it became a central hub of social and urban development. Therefore, this research endeavour focuses on depicting this above mentioned land transformation from fields of sugarcane to the presently expanding area of suburban development in Umhlanga Ridge. The aim of this study is to assess and analyse the land use and land cover changes that have occurred in Umhlanga Ridge using remotely sensed data and to further understand the socio – economic implications of these changes. Utilising the change detection method of image differencing, the remotely sensed data provided by the South African National Space Agency (SANSA) was analysed to identify the changes that have occurred between the years 2006 and 2012. The results yielded from this research endeavour have proved that within Umhlanga and specifically that of Umhlanga Ridge, major land use and land cover transformations have occurred. The most dominant and evident change was found in the larger extent of the Transport and Urban land cover classes by the year 2012. While classes such as the forest and woodland, cultivated Land, grassland and the barren land cover experienced significant drops in their land cover extent, the results generated from the analysis showed that most of these land covers were taken over by the development of urban features. Furthermore, this study reported profound socio – economic implications which occurred due to widespread land use and land cover changes. While many implications were documented, one of the main implications of this nature was found to be the significant number of employment opportunities that became available as a result of the expanding urban landscape. As the urban landscape of this area is continuing to change and expand, it is important to highlight that as a direct consequence of this action, the extent of the naturally occurring environment is being depleted. Therefore, with the urban development now being Umhlanga’s dominant land cover class, additional and supporting data has revealed that the Tongaat Hulett Company and Development sector strives to maintain a balanced with its ecological surroundings by ensuring that suitable sustainable methods are used in the development process and in the maintenance of the area. To conclude, in accordance to the research produced from this study, it is evident that the urban development in Umhlanga and Umhlanga Ridge has grown tremendously and will continue to expand at a steady rate in the future, with the intention of meeting the demands of the area’s visiting tourists and permanent residents. However, while these continuous land use and land cover changes are taking place and expanding, it is imperative that a balanced relationship between man and nature be taken into consideration.

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