Doctoral Degrees (Environmental Science)

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10413/7407

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A Bayesian geo-statistical approach for plantation forest productivity assessment after the fast-track land reform in Zimbabwe.
(2023) Chinembiri, Tsikai Solomon.; Mutanga, Onisimo.; Dube, Timothy.
The principal objective of the current study was to investigate how the new generation multispectral remote sensing, along with variants of the Bayesian hierarchical geostatistical methodology, could handle prediction uncertainty of carbon (C) stock. The assessment of C stock prediction uncertainty was conducted in a managed and disturbed plantation forest ecosystem located in Manicaland province of Zimbabwe. To achieve this, the study made use of ancillary data from the multispectral (Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2) remote sensing platforms, which informed the application of different inferential and methodological variants within the Bayesian hierarchical geostatistical framework. Allometric equations suited for the target plantation tree species in the sampled region were used to derive C stock from Above ground Biomass (AGB) sampled on 500 m2 circular supports. These Bayesian geostatistical models utilized a combination of Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 derived vegetation indices, along with climatic and topographic variables. The study found that the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (𝑁𝐷𝑉𝐼), Distance to settlements (𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇), and Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (𝑆𝐴𝑉𝐼) played crucial roles in influencing the spatial distribution of C stock in the studied region. Enhanced Vegetation Index (𝐸𝑉𝐼) is an insignificant predictor for both Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 driven C stock predictions. Among the tested Bayesian approaches, the spatially varying coefficient (SVC) model, the multi-source data-driven Bayesian geostatistical approach, and the frequentist geostatistical framework were examined. Regardless of the various specifications for independent variables in the predictive C stock modelling within the Bayesian framework, 𝑁𝐷𝑉𝐼 and 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇 emerged as significant predictors of the modelled response variable. The non-stationary and Sentinel-2 driven Bayesian hierarchical model, with 𝑁𝐷𝑉𝐼 and DIST covariables, proved to be the most effective prediction model in the studied plantation forest ecosystem in Zimbabwe. This best-performing C stock predictive model was subsequently used to predict C stock under both current (1970-2000) and future (SSP5-8.5) 2075 climate scenarios. The results of the Bayesian constructed hierarchical model indicate a significant shrinkage of forest C stock density and distribution under the future SSP5-8 (2075) business-as-usual climate projection. Basically, the findings of this study highlight the critical role of new generation multispectral remote sensing and Bayesian geostatistical approaches in assessing and predicting carbon stock uncertainty in forest ecosystems. These insights have significant implications for informed land management strategies, aligning with the goals and recommendations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to effectively address climate challenges and enhance sustainable land management practices.
An assessment of the appropriateness of agricultural extension education in South Africa.
(2008) Worth, Steven Hugh.; Modi, Albert Thembinkosi.
This thesis is about agricultural extension education. The context is agricultural extension in South Africa. It addresses the following questions: To what extent does current agricultural extension education in South Africa adequately reflect the current and changing educational and developmental imperatives? To what extent does it adequately equip extension officers and other agricultural development practitioners to deliver relevant support to farmers and farming communities? In short, how relevant is the training received by South African Agricultural Extension practitioners? The South African government has made significant changes in the policy environment governing agriculture. While the majority of the policy changes fall outside the scope of this research, it can be safely argued, as noted in the current Strategy for South African Agriculture, that the changes are fundamental. The changes redirect agriculture to the majority population which has hitherto been marginalised and generally denied meaningful access to the agricultural sector of the South African economy. To implement these changes, the agricultural sector will need appropriate skills – skills which, it is submitted – are largely lacking within the agricultural extension service and, more relevantly to this study, in Agricultural Extension curricula. In addition to the foregoing, assumptions about farmers and their roles in technology and information creation and consumption, assumptions about the roles of tertiary institutions in the triad of teaching, extension and research and indeed about the triad itself need to be challenged. A system of education which has its origins in the 1800s (before even the industrial revolution, much less the digital revolution) needs, per force, to be interrogated regularly to ensure that it delivers according to the demands of the exigencies of the time. Similarly, assumptions about the aim of development and in particular agricultural development have been questioned in many parts of the world. And yet it is submitted that in South Africa, the basic extension methodologies have not changed in any fundamental way; rather they have adopted some of the outer trappings of new approaches, without assessing the fundamentals of the core extension approach. It is believed that extension is in need of a serious review and that it is timely to do so. Recent research in Africa and elsewhere in the world indicates that extension needs be reconstructed on a different set of operational objectives led by a different vision. The extension strategy herein presented is built around a vision which places the focus on the farmer (and other land users) in the context not of technology, but of creating prosperity. The vision implies that the purpose of agricultural extension is to facilitate the establishment of self-reliant farmers who are contributing to widespread prosperity. The dual outcomes of self-reliant farmers and widespread prosperity are meant to be realised through a new set of =rules of engagement‘. Prosperity is derived out of farmers working together, sharing information, and learning together. Self-reliant farmers are an outcome of a learning partnership between farmers and extension practitioners. This study was conducted in a series of stages. The first thrust examined the nature of Agricultural Extension and the assumptions on which it is predicated. The result of this interrogation was to propose a new concept for Agricultural Extension – Agriflection – which is a learning-based concept aimed at improving the sustainability of the livelihoods of farmers through iterative development processes fostered through a learning agenda that is facilitated by an appropriately trained Agricultural Extension practitioner. To realise such a vision, it is essential that the mission of the extension service be recast to reflect the dynamics of the implications of the vision. The key elements of the mission are, therefore, client-responsiveness and partnerships. The power to realise the vision rests in three critical aspects. First is the capacity of the extension service to engage with its clients as genuine partners in a shared learning agenda. The second is the capacity of the extension service to engage with the many other agencies and organisations which supply goods and services to farmers and land users. The third is ensuring that engagements with farmers support sustainable development, that is, that production of food, fibre and fuel is socially just, economically sustainable and environmentally sustainable. This new vision and mission lay the foundation for a fundamental shift in the way agricultural extension is positioned, resourced, implemented and evaluated. The strategic goals, principles and values presented in this strategy are built on this foundation, and they, in turn, create the framework for constructing the operational plans of the extension service as well as for management and measurement of the service. The second thrust of the study was to filter the Agriflection concept through South African educational and agricultural policy. Given that the agricultural frontier is subject to change in focus and priorities, it was reasoned that the training and education of would-be extension practitioners needs to be able to respond to changes in methods and in the field. The National Government has adopted the outcomes-based model as the general structure for curriculum development. Further sustainable development/livelihoods has been adopted as the general framework for development. Outcomes-based education and sustainable development/livelihoods provide a framework for studying and developing curricula. A tool that enables curriculum analysis and development which allows for adjustment to changing imperatives while maintaining integrity in terms of education and development, would be valuable for tertiary institutions training extension officers. The result of this second thrust was the development of curriculum markers that encapsulated what non-technical knowledge and skills (i.e. Agricultural Extension knowledge and skills) were needed to be able to deliver on the imperatives of the transformation agenda of current agricultural policy. Thirty-four markers were identified. The third thrust of the study was to create a credible method to evaluate Agricultural Extension curricula and to capture and analyse data. A detailed review of methods and approaches was made resulting in fashioning the Theory-led Instructional-Design Curriculum Evaluation (TICE) method. One of the primary facets of this six-process method is questioning of the assumptions on which the discipline of Agricultural Extension is based. Such a questioning would lead to a new theory to govern the evaluation of curriculum. Ancillary to the TICE method were the methods of data collection and analysis. The study consolidated these in presence and efficacy factors. These factors measured the presence of the 34 markers in Agricultural Extension curricula and the extent to which they were addressed, if present. The fourth thrust of the study was the detailed evaluation of curricula of qualifications most commonly held by public sector Agricultural Extension practitioners. The study examined the curricula of agricultural diplomas, of three- and four-year agricultural degrees and of one-year postgraduate qualifications offered by Colleges of Agriculture and selected Universities and Universities of Technology. The fifth thrust was to conduct corroborative investigations in the public sector. This was done by surveying Agricultural Extension practitioners asking them to evaluate the extent to which they believed they have knowledge and/or skill represented by the 34 curricula markers. In addition, a brief analysis was made of Agricultural Extension practitioner job descriptions used in the public sector. This was done to determine what knowledge and skills were expected of Agricultural Extension practitioners and comparing this to the 34 markers. The study revealed that there is very limited Agricultural Extension training offered in the curricula of qualifications held by the majority of public sector Agricultural Extension practitioners. Further, using the 34 markers as the touchstone, it was determined that the current curricula do not adequately equip public sector Agricultural Extension practitioners to deliver on the agenda of current South African agricultural policy. Without extensive revision of curricula in terms of both the quantity and content of extension training, the South African public sector Agricultural Extension service will not be able to realise the intended transformation of agriculture. Its key operatives will not have the knowledge and skills needed to do so. This is a unique study. No study of its kind has ever been conducted in South Africa. Numerous studies have been conducted into the training needs of Agricultural Extension practitioners. None have gone to the extent of questioning the assumptions on which Agricultural Extension is based. None have made a critical examination of curricula in the light of current educational and agricultural policy. This study found that there is an urgent need for serious attention to be given the purpose, scope, outcomes of Agricultural Extension higher education in South Africa to ensure that it can contribute to the positive and sustainable transformation of agriculture.
Analysis of vegetation fragmentation and impacts using remote sensing techniques in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania.
(2014) Ojoyi, Mercy Mwanikah.; Mutanga, Onisimo.; Odindi, John Odhiambo.
The Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania forms part of the Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspots, listed among the global World Wide Fund for Nature's (WWF) priority ecoregions. However, the region is threatened by fragmentation and habitat modification resulting from competing forms of land uses, which is in turn threatening biodiversity conservation, planning and management efforts. To determine vulnerability that can inform long-term conservation and management of the biodiversity hotspots, an in-depth understanding of the qualitative and quantitative nature of ecosystems is a pre-requisite. The overall goal of this study was to quantify fragmentation, investigate its impacts on tree species diversity, abundance and biomass and to identify management interventions in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania. Using ecological field based measurements and a series of LANDSAT and RapidEye satellite imagery, fragstats metrics showed dynamic fragmentation patterns at both spatial and temporal scales. Furthermore, species diversity was predicted better with customized environmental variables using the Generic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction (GARP) model, which recorded an Area under Curve (AUC) of 0.89. In addition, Poisson regression results showed different responses by individual tree species to patch area dynamics, habitat status and soil nitrogen. Partial Least Squares and Random Forest models were used to determine above ground biomass prediction based on a combination of edaphic variables and vegetation indices. Total biomass estimations decreased from 1162 ton ha-1 in 1980 to 285.38 ton ha-1 in 2012. As a reference point in formulation of policy insights based on strong scientific and empirical knowledge, socio-economic factors influencing vulnerability of ecosystems and management interventions were examined using remotely sensed and empirical data from 335 households. The multiple logistic regression model indicated habitat fragmentation and forest burning as key conservation threats while low income level (54.62%) and limited knowledge on environmental conservation (18.51%) were identified as major catalysts to ecosystem vulnerability. The study identified livelihood diversification, effective institutional frameworks and afforestation programmes as major intervention measures. The overall study shows the effectiveness of remote sensing techniques in ecological studies and how results can be used to inform decisions for addressing complex ecological challenges in the tropics.
The application of deep learning for remote sensing of soil organic carbon stocks distribution in South Africa = Ukusetshenziswa kokufunda okujulile kokuzwa kude kokusatshalaliswa kwesitokwe sekhabhoni ephilayo enhlabathini eNingizimu Afrikha.
(2022) Odebiri, Omosalewa Olamide.; Mutanga, Onisimo.; Odindi, John Odhiambo.
Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a vital measure for ecosystem health and offers opportunities to understand carbon fluxes and associated implications. However, unprecedented anthropogenic disturbances have significantly altered SOC distribution across the globe, leading to considerable carbon losses. In addition, reliable SOC estimates, particularly over large spatial extents remain a major challenge due to among others limited sample points, quality of simulation data and suitable algorithms. Remote sensing (RS) approaches have emerged as a suitable alternative to field and laboratory SOC determination, especially at large spatial extent. Nevertheless, reliable determination of SOC distribution using RS data requires robust analytical approaches. Compared to linear and classical machine learning (ML) models, deep learning (DL) models offer a considerable improvement in data analysis due to their ability to extract more representative features and identify complex spatial patterns associated with big data. Hence, advancements in remote sensing, proliferation of big data, and deep learning architecture offer great potential for large-scale SOC mapping. However, there is paucity in literature on the application of DL-based remote sensing approaches for SOC prediction. To this end, this study is aimed at exploring DL-based approaches for the remote sensing of SOC stocks distribution across South Africa. The first objective sought to provide a synopsis of the use of traditional neural network (TNN) and DL-based remote sensing of SOC with emphasis on basic concepts, differences, similarities and limitations, while the second objective provided an in-depth review of the history, utility, challenges, and prospects of DL-based remote sensing approaches for mapping SOC. A quantitative evaluation between the use of TNN and DL frameworks was also conducted. Findings show that majority of published literature were conducted in the Northern Hemisphere while Africa have only four publications. Results also reveal that most studies adopted hyperspectral data, particularly spectrometers as compared to multispectral data. In comparison to DL (10%), TNN (90%) models were more commonly utilized in the literature; yet, DL models produced higher median accuracy (93%) than TNN (85%) models. The review concludes by highlighting future opportunities for retrieving SOC from remotely sensed data using DL frameworks. The third objective compared the accuracy of DL—deep neural network (DNN) model and a TNN—artificial neural network (ANN), as well as other popular classical ML models that include random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM), for national scale SOC mapping using Sentinel-3 data. With a root mean square error (RMSE) of 10.35 t/ha, the DNN model produced the best results, followed by RF (11.2 t/ha), ANN (11.6 t/ha), and SVM (13.6 t/ha). The DNN's analytical abilities, combined with its capacity to handle large amounts of data is a key advantage over other classical ML models. Having established the superiority of DL models over TNN and other classical models, the fourth objective focused on investigating SOC stocks distribution across South Africa’s major land uses, using Deep Neural Networks (DNN) and Sentinel-3 satellite data. Findings show that grasslands contributed the most to overall SOC stocks (31.36 %), while urban vegetation contributed the least (0.04%). Results also show that commercial (46.06 t/h) and natural (44.34 t/h) forests had better carbon sequestration capacity than other classes. These findings provide an important guideline for managing SOC stocks in South Africa, useful in climate change mitigation by promoting sustainable land-use practices. The fifth objective sought to determine the distribution of SOC within South Africa’s major biomes using remotely sensed-topo-climatic data and Concrete Autoencoder-Deep Neural Networks (CAE-DNN). Findings show that the CAE-DNN model (built from 26 selected variables) had the best accuracy of the DNNs examined, with an RMSE of 7.91 t/h. Soil organic carbon stock was also shown to be related to biome coverage, with the grassland (32.38%) and savanna (31.28%) biomes contributing the most to the overall SOC pool in South Africa. forests (44.12 t/h) and the Indian ocean coastal belt (43.05 t/h) biomes, despite having smaller footprints, have the highest SOC sequestration capacity. To increase SOC storage, it is recommended that degraded biomes be restored; however, a balance must be maintained between carbon sequestration capability, biodiversity health, and adequate provision of ecosystem services. The sixth objective sought to project the present SOC stocks in South Africa into the future (i.e. 2050). Soil organic carbon variations generated by projected climate change and land cover were mapped and analysed using a digital soil mapping (DSM) technique combined with space-for-time substitution (SFTS) procedures over South Africa through 2050. The potential SOC stocks variations across South Africa's major land uses were also assessed from current (2021) to future (2050). The first part of the study uses a Deep Neural Network (DNN) to estimate current SOC content (2021), while the second phase uses an average of five WorldClim General Circulation Models to project SOC to the future (2050) under four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Results show a general decline in projected future SOC stocks by 2050, ranging from 4.97 to 5.38 Pg, compared to estimated current stocks of 5.64 Pg. The findings are critical for government and policymakers in assessing the efficacy of current management systems in South Africa. Overall, this study provides a cost-effective framework for national scale mapping of SOC stocks, which is the largest terrestrial carbon pool using advanced DL-based remote sensing approach. These findings are valuable for designing appropriate management strategies to promote carbon uptake, soil quality, and measuring terrestrial ecosystem responses and feedbacks to climate change. This study is also the first DL-based remote sensing of SOC stocks distribution in South Africa. Iqoqa Ikhabhoni yomhlabathi engaguquliwe, phecelezi i-soil organic carbon (SOC) ibaluleke kakhulu ebudlelwaneni bezinto eziphilayo nendawo eziphila kuyona futhi isiza ukuqonda kabanzi ubudlelwane bamakhabhoni nezinto eziyidingayo, nokuthi lokho kunayiphi imiphumela. Nokho, ukungcola okungajwayelekile okudalwa ngabantu kubonakala kuza noshintsho olukhulu ekuhanjisweni kwe-SOC kuwona wonke umhlaba, okuholela ekutheni kube nokulahleka kwekhabhoni eningi. Ukwengeza, ukuhlawumbisela okuthembekile nge-SOC, ikakhulukazi okuthinta umthamo omkhulu kubonakala kuqhubeka nokuba yinkinga ngenxa yesizathu sokuthi kukhona izibonelo zayo ezimbalwa, kanti nezinga elihle liyagqoza, nendlela eyiyo okumele ilandelwe ukukala. Indlela yokuhlola buqamama, phecelezi i-Remote sensing (RS) iyona ebonakala njengendlela engalandelwa ukuhlola iSOC ensimini noma egunjini lokuhlolela, ikakhulukazi uma kuthinta indawo enkulu. Nokho, ukuhlonza indlela ethembekile yokusatshalaliswa kwe-SOC kusetshenziswa imininingwane ye-RS kudinga izindlela eziseqophelweni eliphezulu zokuhlaziya. Ukuqhathanisa nendleya ye-linear ne-classical machine learning (ML), Indlela ye-deep learning (DL) yona ibonakala iletha ubungcono obukhulu ekuhlaziyeni imininingo ngenxa yokukwazi ukuhlonza izinto ezidingekalayo nokuveza izinto eziyinkinga kuleyo ndawo enemininingo eminingi. Ukuthuthuka kwendlela yokuhlola buqamama, ukuhlaziywa kwemininingo eminingi, nokufunda ngobuciko bokwakha indlela yokwenza, konke kuza namathuba amahle okuphaka uhlelo ngobuningi balo be-SOC. Nakuba kunjalo, kubonakala kunolwazi oluyingcosana emibhalweni yocwaningo mayelana nokusebenza kwezindlela zokuhlola buqamama ngesihlawumbiselo se-SOC. Kuze kube manje, lolu cwaningo beluhlose ukucubungula izindlela zokuhlaziya buqamama ze-DL ngokusatshalaliswa kwe-SOC eNingizimu-Afrikha yonkana. Inhloso yokuqala bekuwukunikeza ulwazi olufushane mayelana nendlela ejwayelekile yokusabalalisa, phecelezi i- traditional neural network (TNN) nendlela yokuhlaziya buqamama ye-DL ye-SOC ngokugcizelela ukubaluleka kwezinto ezijwayelekile, nomahluko. Okufanayo nezingqinamba, kanti inhloso yesibili inikeze ukucubungula okujulile komlando, ukusetshenziswa kwento, izinselelo, kanye namathuba okusebenza kwendlela yokuhlaziya buqamama ye-DL ekusabalaliseni i-SOC. Ukuhlaziya ngokwekhwalithethivu ekusebenziseni i-TNN ne-DL nakho kwenziwa. Imiphumela iveza ukuthi imibhalo eminingi yocwaningo yashicilelwa eNyakatho nomhlaba kanti lapha e-Afrika khona kwashicilelwa emine nje kuphela. Imiphumela iphinde iveze ukuthi ucwaningo oluningi lulandela indlela ebheka imininingo ehlanngene, ikakhulukazi ukubheka imibala eminingi yokukhanya, uma kuqhathaniswa nengxubevange yemininingo. Ukuqhathanisa nezindlela ze-DL (10%) ne-TNN (90%) yizona ezithandwa kakhulu emibhalweni yocwaningo, kodwa, indlela ye-DL ikhiqize okuneqinso (93%) kunendlela ye-TNN (85%). Ukucubungula kuphetha ngokugqamisa amathuba azayo okuthola ulwazi lwe-SOC kusetshenziswa indlela yokuhlola buqamama nge-DL. Inhloso yesithathu yona yayiqhathanisa ukuthembeka kwe-DL-deep neural network (DNN) kanye ne-TNN—artificial neural network (ANN), kanye nenye indlela endala edumile ye-ML efaka phakathi i-random forest (RF) kanye ne-support vector machine (SVM), ukhubheka isikalo sikazwelonke se-SOC kusetshenziswa imininingo ye-Sentinel-3. Nge-root mean square error (RMSE) ye-10.35 t/ha, indlela ye-DNN yakhiqiza imiphumela emihle kakhulu, ilandelwa yi-RF (11.2 t/ha), i-ANN (11.6 t/ha), ne-SVM (13.6 t/ha). Amandla okuhlaziya e-DNN, ehlanganiswe namandla okukwazi ukubhekana nemininingo eminingi kakhulu yikhona okwenza ibaluleke ukwedlula indlela ye-ML. Emva kokuhlonza amandla e-DL phezu kwawe-TNN kanye nezinye izindlela ezaziwayo, inhloso yesine yona ibigxile ekuhloleni ukusabalaliswa kwe-SOC ekusetshenzisweni komhlaba ngobuningi bawo lapha eNingizimu-Afrika, kusetshenziswa i-Deep Neural Networks (DNN) ne-Sentinel-3 satellite data. Imiphumela iveza ukuthi indawo enotshani iyona eletha izibalo eziphezulu ze-SOC sekuhlangene yonke into (31.36 %), kanti izimilo zasedolobheni zona zaletha izibalo ezincane (0.04%). Imiphumela iphinde ikhombise ukuthi amahlathi atshalelwe ukudayisa (46.06 t/h) kanye nawemvelo (44.34 t/h) ayekhombisa ukuba nekhabhoni enhle uma kuqhathaniswa namanye. Le miphumela ingumhlahlandlela obalulekile mayelana nokugcinwa kwe-SOC lapha eNingizimu-Afrikha, okuyinto ebaluleke kakhulu ukubhekana nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu ngokugqugquzela izindlela eziyizo zokusebenzisa umhlaba. Inhloso yesihlanu yona ibihlose ukuthola ulwazi ngokusatshalaliswa kwe-SOC ezinhlakeni ezahlukene zomphakathi lapha eNingizimu-Afrikha kusetshenziswa indlela yokuhlaziya buqama kanye ne-Concrete Autoencoder-Deep Neural Networks (CAE-DNN). Imiphumela iveza ukuthi indlela ye-CAE-DNN (eyakhiwe ngezinto ezikhethiweyo ezingama-26) yakhombisa ubuqiniso obukhulu be-DNNs, eyayihloliwe, nge-RMSE of 7.91 t/h. I-SOC yaphinde yakhombisa ukuba nobudlelwane nokusabalala kohlaza olumilile, kukhona indawo enotshani (32.38%) nendawo engenazihlahla yohlaza lotshani (31.28%) okuyiyona ephethe umhlaba omningi uma usuhlanganisiwe we-SOC lapha eNingizimu-Afrikha, amahlathi (44.12 t/h) kanye nomhlaba onohlaza lotshani ukugudla ulwandle i Indian Ocean (43.05 t/h), ngale okubonakala kancane, kodwa inokugcwala okuningi kwe-SOC. Ukukhulisa indawo yokugcina i-SOC, kuphakanyiswa ukuba indawo yohlaza lotshani ebisagciniwe iphinde isetshenziswe; nokho-ke, kumele kube khona ukulinganisa okuyikhona phakathi kokuthathwa kwekhabhoni, impilo yokubhekwayo kanye nokunakekelwa kwezinto eziphilayo nendawo eziphila kuyona. Inhloso yesithupha yayihlose ukuvikela ukukhiqizwa kwe-SOC lapha eNingizimu-Afrikha ngisho eminyakeni eminingi ezayo (okuwunyaka wezi-2050). Izinhlobo ezahlukene ze-SOC ezikhiqizwe ngokuguquguquka okwahlukene kwezimo zezulu nomhlaba kwakahlwa futhi kwahlaziywa kusetshenziswa isu le-digital soil mapping (DSM) lihlanganiswe nezindlela ze-space-for-time substitution (SFTS) eNingizimu-Afrikha kuze kube unyaka wezi-2050. Abasebenzisi bakusasa bomhlaba okhiqiza izinhlobo ezahlukene ze-SOC nabo bahlolwa kusukela kwabamanje (2021) kuye kwabangomuso (2050). Ingxenye yokuqala yalolu cwaningo isebenzisa i-Deep Neural Network (DNN) ukugagula isimo ngqo sengqikithi ye-SOC (2021), kanti ingxenye yesibili yona isebenzisa okungenani izindlela ezinhlanu zokusabalalisa nge-WorldClim General Circulation kumaphrojekthi e-SOC nangeminyaka ezayo (2050) ngaphansi kwe-Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) emine. Imiphumela iveza ukwehla kwe-SOC ngokwezibalo zangomuso ngeminyaka yezi-2050, kusukela ku-4.97 kuya ku-5.38 Pg, uma kuqhathaniswa ne-SOC ekhona manje engu-5.64 Pg. Le miphumela ibaluleke kakhulu kuhulumeni nakulaba abakhipha izinqubomgomo ukubheka ukusebenza kahle kwezinhlaka zokuphatha eNingizimu-Afrikha. Sekukonke, lolu cwaningo lunikeza indlela yokucabanga nokwenza engabizi neyimpumelelo yokusabalalisa i-SOC, okuyiyona enkulu kakhulu ekukhiqizweni kwekhaboni kusetshenziswa indlela yokuhlola buqamama ye-DL. Lolu cwaningo lubalulekile ukuqhamuka nezindlela ezintsha zokuphatha ukuze kugqugquzeleke ukukhiqizwa kwekhabhoni, umhlaba ovundile, nokukala izinto eziphilayo nendawo eziphila kuyona kanye nokunikeza impendulo mayelana nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu. Lolu cwaningo lungolokuqala ngqa lokubheka indlela yokuhlaziya buqamama nge-DL lapha eNingizimu Afrikha.
The application of geographic information systems (GIS) to armed violent conflicts resolution in the Great Lakes region (GLR) of Central and East Africa.
(2020) Rwandarugali, Stanislas.; Njoya, Ngetar Silas.
Armed violent conflict is a persistent global problem, and its severity is more prominent in developing countries, including Africa. In the past decades and more recently, the GLR in east Africa has experienced various armed violent conflicts, notably the 1994 Rwandan genocide, a protracted civil war in Uganda, the Burundi ethnic conflicts, sporadic persistent cross-border ethnic conflicts in Tanzania and an unending guerrilla and civil war in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Many efforts have been made through conventional approaches, notably negotiations, peace talks, peacekeeping operations (PKO), and peace stabilization, to address these conflicts but sustainable peace remains a challenge and elusive. Most of these conventional approaches emphasize on economic and political aspects and tend to ignore the spatial component in peace talks and decisions making. GIS has been recognized as an invaluable tool in the resolution of armed violent conflicts in other parts of the world. GIS has the capability of integrating, synthesizing, and modelling spatial data, which can assist in policy and decision-making. However, GIS by itself cannot resolve any conflict, but it is a decision support system that can assist different stakeholders in sustainable peace negotiations. This study aims to explore the application of GIS to armed violent conflicts resolution in the GLR. It is built upon an array of qualitative and quantitative approaches aimed at identifying the origin and evolution of armed violent conflicts; patterns and dynamics of present conflict zones and areas that are currently not experiencing conflicts but may be prone to future armed violent conflicts in GLR in east Africa. In an attempt to trace the origin and evolution of persistent armed violent conflicts in the GLR, and the application of GIS in conflict resolution and peacebuilding, an extensive literature review was conducted. To detect past arm conflict clusters, hotspots, and areas at risk to future outbreaks of armed violent conflicts, GIS spatial analytical techniques were employed, including geocoding, autocorrelation analysis (Moran's I), Hotspot (Getis-Ord Gi*) analysis, and predictive modelling. While geocoding, cluster, and hot spot analyses were performed in ArcMap GIS software to assess the spatial distribution and patterns of armed violent conflicts in the GLR from 1998 – 2017, Microsoft Excel was used to develop a predictive Conflict Risk Model (CRM) for the probability of armed conflicts occurring from 2018 -2038. Thereafter, a conflict risk equation was developed from the CRM to predict areas at risk of future armed conflict outbreak. In response to the absence of a combined spatial data hub in the GLR, a new regional file geodatabase was created in ArcMap, ArcCatalog 10.4 using data from various referenced, survey and institutional sources. As part of a comprehensive plan to bring sustainable peace in the GLR, this study has identified the Hima –Tutsi empire ideology and the presence of mineral resources in the region as significant factors explaining the origin and evolution of persistent armed violence in the GLR. The study also highlights the application of GIS to identify and assess the spatial distribution, clusters, hot and risk spots of armed conflicts in the GLR and as a decision support tool for armed conflict resolution. From 1998-2017, armed violent conflicts were prevalent in the whole country of Burundi, eastern DRC and northern Uganda. During the same period, there was a significant clustering of armed violent conflict in the GLR at 99% confidence (p < 0.01), however eastern DRC emerged as the area with the highest armed conflicts hot spots at 99% confidence. In general, the predictive CRM analysis revealed a 66% probability of armed conflict occurring in the GLR between 2018 and 2038, with DRC predicted to be the most at risk (81%) and Tanzania the least at risk (50%). Together with the newly created regional file geodatabase, these results provide a framework for armed conflict resolution and roadmap for the possibility of sustainable peacebuilding in the GLR. Areas of future research in the GLR include the development of a geodatabase at country level, the socio-economic and environmental impact of armed conflicts in the GLR, and the development of a robust conflict risk model in the GLR and Africa as a continent. Such a robust conflict risk model including local, regional, and international stakeholders, should assist in proactively, rather than reactively identifying and managing armed violent conflicts in region.
Assessing soil erosion associated with main roads in south-eastern South Africa.
(2014) Seutloali, Khoboso.; Beckedahl, Heinrich Reinhard.
Construction of linear infrastructure such as roads is increasing worldwide for the provision of efficient transportation of both humans and commodities. However, roads have been widely recognised as significant causes of increased soil erosion due to their influence on the hydrologic and geomorphic processes through the modification of natural hill-slope profiles, the construction of cut and fill embankments as well as impervious road surfaces that concentrate runoff. Accelerated soil erosion due to roads is of particular concern since the associated environmental impacts have economic ramifications related to water treatment and soil rehabilitation. In the light of the above, a better understanding of road-related soil erosion is required to guide environmentally sustainable future developments and erosion control efforts. The present study assesses soil erosion associated with main tar roads in the south-eastern region of South Africa. The first part of the study provides an overview of the linkages of roads with soil erosion by water, related structural designs that facilitate soil erosion processes as well as available approaches for assessing road-related soil erosion and the available erosion control techniques. Secondly, the study focuses on exploring the characteristics (i.e. gradient, length, and vegetation cover) of degraded and non-degraded roadcuts with a view to understanding why some roadcuts are degraded while others are not. Moreover, the study investigates the relationship between the characteristics of the roadcuts and the dimensions (i.e. width and depth) of the rills. Results show that degraded roadcuts are steeper, longer and have a lower percentage of vegetation cover when compared to non-degraded roadcuts. The results further show that there is a significant relationship between the width and depth of the rills, and the slope gradient and percentage of vegetation cover of the roadcuts. These results prompted the need to evaluate the volume of soil loss, using rill dimensions on roadcuts as well as an assessment of the relationship between the volume of soil loss and the soil properties. Results show that soil loss correlates significantly with all the rill dimensions, and the rill depth is the foremost variable in calculating rill volume than the rill width and length. In addition, the results show that there is a significant relationship between the volume of soil loss and the soil properties of the roadcuts. The study further used remotely sensed data to assess gully erosion related to road drainage release and examined the relationship between physical and climatic factors (i.e. road contributing surface area, vegetation cover, hillslope gradient and rainfall) and the volume of gullies. The results indicate that the road contributing surface area, vegetation cover and hillslope gradient have a significant contribution and influence on the size of the gullies along major armoured roads. Moreover, the results show that remote sensing technologies have the capability to investigate road-related gully erosion where detailed field work remains a challenge due to economic and time constraints. Finally, in order to evaluate the effectiveness of soil erosion control methods along the roads, the study investigates the performance of different soil erosion control methods utilised on the roadcuts. It was observed that most of the slope stabilisation methods are successful in controlling soil erosion while the majority of drainage control methods performed poorly. The results show that good performance is related to vegetation re-establishment, while poor performance may be attributed to improper application, lack of inspection and maintenance. Overall, the study provides an understanding of erosion related to the post construction phase of roads. In this regard, it is expected that the results of this study will contribute to the management of roads from the soil erosion perspective through appropriate interaction with the South African National Roads Authority (SANRAL). It is hoped that this work will lay the foundation for environmentally sustainable road construction, maintenance and the formulation of effective soil erosion control measures in the future.
Assessing the invasiveness of alien aroids using modelling techniques and ecological assessments.
(2016) Moodley, Desika.; Proches, Serban Mihai.; Wilson, John R.
Biological invasions represent one of the main drivers of the present decline in biodiversity worldwide and are difficult and costly to control. Consequently, identifying which factors allow a small proportion of species to successfully invade is a key area of research in invasion biology and is essential for effective management. In this thesis, I studied invasion patterns of the Araceae family, explored some of their ecological drivers, and unravelled mechanistic relationships that caused species to become successful. There are several emerging generalizations in invasion biology, but often the factors determining invasiveness are group-specific. Therefore the primary aim of this thesis was to establish whether general patterns of invasion biology also applied to Araceae. At a global scale, I found that, similar to other plant families, species with large native ranges and those that have been widely introduced were more likely to become invasive. What is unique to the family is the great diversity of growth forms, some of which are more likely to become invasive than others. I identified nine lineages in the family that have a greater tendency to invasiveness and recommended a precautionary approach be taken for these clades. At a regional scale, I used Epipremnum aureum as my case study species, because of the detection of the species in the country, as well as knowledge on its invasive cogener. In the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa, I found 78 naturalized E. aureum populations and 321 cultivated populations, of which the naturalized populations covered nearly 3 hectares in total. Disturbance played a major role in facilitating invasions and species distribution models indicated that E. aureum has a high probability of expanding its current range. Due to the invasion threat of this species, I recommended that all plants outside cultivation be removed. Lastly, I assessed a unique case where a widely planted species, Monstera deliciosa, has not yet become a global invader. I explored whether introduction history drives invasiveness in the Monsteroideae subfamily. I found that long residence times and high propagule pressure facilitated invasiveness in this subfamily. This was followed by as a local scale approach to identify factors influencing invasion success. The naturalization of Monstera deliciosa was largely driven by anthropogenic effects in Limpopo, South Africa, despite the plants‟ occurence in suitable habitat. Therefore, I concluded that M. deliciosa poses a low invasion risk to South Africa. Overall, this thesis demonstrated the importance of using a taxonomic group to identify the contribution of multiple factors in the success of invasive species, but that species-specific assessments will still be required for effective management.
An assessment of the Giba Gorge special rating area as a biodiversity stewardship practice.
(2015) Chinzila, Chuma Banji.; Ahmed, Fathima.; Bob, Urmilla.
Traditional conservation practices restricted resources to formally Protected Areas leaving biodiversity lying outside Protected Areas with minimal or no formal management. Increasing evidence of significant biodiversity lying outside Protected Areas, even in urban areas has necessitated innovative strategies for conserving biodiversity for human well-being. One such strategy is the use of a ‘Special Rating Area’ (SRA) legislative instrument to raise funds for managing biodiversity on privately owned properties through a pilot project in the Giba Gorge Environmental Precinct (GGEP). The aim of this study is to assess the Giga Gorge SRA as a biodiversity stewardship practice by understanding the processes of open space management and the impact it has had on local communities, ecosystems and adjacent property. The study was conducted involving the GGEP property owners and the Tshelimnyama community members (local community adjacent to the GGEP) comprising the traditional healers and general community members. The study is guided by the political ecology conceptual framework for understanding environmental issues in the GGEP and how socio-political processes at various scales have shaped the GGEP project. In addition, stakeholder theory provides a framework for exploring relationships among GGEP stakeholders and how their interests are managed. The study uses a sequential explanatory mixed methods approach in data collection and analysis. Analysis of data reveals improvement in the quality of ecosystems during the period 2010 to 2012. Secondly, findings reveal unsustainable natural resource uses such as recreational activities and medicinal plant harvesting. Thirdly, the study highlights negative stakeholder perceptions towards management activities resulting from communication breakdown. Fourthly, findings show that majority of the property owners did not find security concerns in the GGEP open space as factors that would restrict their interactions with the open space and other open space users. Lastly, the study reveals that the GGEP project had no impact on property value. This study recommends that the GGEP management develops and implements research based communication strategies for engaging stakeholders in the processes of managing the GGEP project.
The biogeography and ecology of the secondary marine arthropods of Southern Africa.
Proches, Serban Mihai.; Marshall, David J.
Abstract available in PDF file.
Causes of wetland erosion at Craigieburn, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa.
(2011) Ngetar, Njoya Silas.; Hughes, Jeffrey Colin.; Ellery, William Nolan.; Garland, Gerald George.
Wetland degradation, which includes deterioration in functional performance and erosion, is a problem around the world. This has engendered a quest for causes and attempts to prevent the problem or to rehabilitate wetlands already degraded or undergoing degradation. The Craigieburn wetland system in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa has undergone erosion due to two downstream discontinuous gullies that have drained and considerably reduced the size of the wetland system. Measurements from 1954 to 1997 aerial photographs showed that over 40 years, the upper gully migrated headward over a distance of 30 m, while the lower gully eroded 522 m headward raising the question as to what caused their erosion? Prior to this study, the predominant view was that human activities, namely poor land use management within the wetland system, increased human occupation, and overgrazing on the adjacent catchment that caused a reduction in vegetation cover, were responsible for this wetland erosion. Detailed field observation, aerial photograph interpretation, soil analyses for mineralogy, chemistry and particle size distribution, landscape mapping, dumpy level survey of the wetland valley and statistical analysis were undertaken to establish the relationships between gullying and possible contributing factors. Human impacts on wetland gully development between 1954 and 1997 were estimated using the number of individual homes, and total lengths of footpaths, animal tracks and dirt roads. Agricultural activities and the stocking rate of livestock were excluded due to the poor quality of aerial photographs and lack of historical records. Results of multiple regression correlating lengths of the two gullies (upper and lower gullies) and the sum of these human factors gave a high correlation (adjusted R² = 0.92 and 0.90, respectively) but a low significance (p = 0.18 and 0.21, respectively). However, time has played a significant role in the erosion of both the upper gully (R² = 0.82, p = 0.02) and the lower gully (R² = 0.98, p = 0.02) at Craigieburn. X-ray diffraction and X-ray fluorescence spectrometry of weathered parent materials showed that the area has undergone deep weathering, supplying sediments to the wetland valley through surface run-off. The accumulation of these sediments resulted in localized over-steepening of certain sections of the valley floor with raised gradients of 0.0336 and 0.0337 at the two headcuts relative to the upper and lower non-eroding sections with lower gradients. These localized steep sections increased flow velocity and stream power and therefore stream erosivity thus triggering gully erosion. In addition to localized areas of raised valley floor, results from multiple regression showed a significant relationship (p = 0.002) between areas of earthflow scars and gully length, especially at the lower gully, thus further suggesting that physical factors are largely responsible for gully erosion at Craigieburn. Long-term climate change has resulted in the formation of two terraces, an older, D1 (USU-760, 1.67 ± 0.89 ka) and a younger, D2 (USU 761, 0.32 ± 0.08 ka). The former probably eroded during the medieval warming around 1230 AD while the younger terrace, which likely formed during the last half of the Little Ice Age, has been eroding since the renewed warming thereafter. This erosion has been exacerbated by short-term periodic or seasonal climatic changes, especially episodic summer rainfall events, which have likely played a key role in the headward migration of the two gullies. The result has been shrinkage of the wetland system by about 15 m on both sides of the valley, leaving behind a greyish soil colour indicating wet and reducing conditions in the past. These, together with dried relict mottles left behind in the soil matrix at the margin of the shrunken wetland system suggest past seasonal fluctuation of the water table engendering the belief that the wetland system once extended beyond its present limit. The overwhelming contribution of these physical factors, in addition to the fact that the two gullies predate human occupation of the study area catchment and environs, strongly argues for their responsibility in gully initiation and development at Craigieburn. Human presence and activities, which only became evident in the catchment from the 1950s onwards, may be secondary contributory factors. This conclusion encourages a rethink of previous views that human occupation and activities are solely responsible for this wetland gully erosion at Craigieburn and provides a rationale for including physical processes and climate change as factors when investigating causes of wetland erosion elsewhere. Such an understanding should be used to inform any rehabilitation or conservation efforts that are related to wetland ecosystems.
Challenges of developing an integrated food control system for South Africa : insights from the veterinary drug and residue regulatory system.
(2013) Chanda, Renusha R.; Fincham, Robert John.; Venter, Philippus Abraham.
Food is a complex commodity. Ingredients are farmed and harvested then processed and combined into a variety of foods of different forms and packaged in an equal variety of ways to satisfy a multitude of tastes, textures, colours and smells. The entire food production chain is therefore a means to satisfy a continual demand by the consumer for an essential commodity. Together with the demand of the access to food by consumers is the demand of the assurance that is it safe to consume. This is however the challenge with food production, as by its very nature, food is prone to contamination, whether it is microbial, chemical or physical. Food must also be of adequate quality to impart nutritional value to consumers. To ensure that food is both safe and of sufficient quality requires a regulatory framework from Government which provides for functions and structures within Government to check and ensure adequate safety and quality of foods. This regulation or control is referred to as food control. In essence, food control regulates the food production chain which is a continuous process from the agricultural stage to processing, packaging and finally consumption. Although the food production chain is continuous, food control may always not mirror the continuity of the production chain and functions can be separated between various government authorities. Should this be the case, and when there is no concerted action to make the various parts of the system work together, the system becomes fragmented. A fragmented system is an oxymoron because a system by definition infers that functions are integrated and coordinated. These two principles of a system are core requirements for the philosophy of systems thinking which is applied in this study. Systems thinking seeks to understand and improve functioning of various systems which include designed systems like food control systems. Application of systems thinking to food control systems infers that each function carried out within the system whether carried out by one authority or many are still part of the same system and therefore must be coordinated and integrated to be regarded as a functioning system. Application of systems thinking to food control systems and in particular the South African food control system is relevant in light of the reported fragmentation of the system and the widespread challenges that fragmentation is purported to cause. The hypothesis of an internal government report (Bruckner et al., 1999) drafted over a decade ago asserted that the South African food control system is burdened with challenges that are caused by its fragmented state. However, there has been limited progress on addressing any of the challenges identified in the report let alone understanding and addressing fragmentation of the system. The lack of response to the report has prompted this research, to determine not only the challenges of fragmentation within the food control system and how to address them, but also to interrogate the characteristic of fragmentation. The aim of the study is therefore to research fragmentation as a characteristic of the South African food control system, and to explore its relationship with challenges that it is associated with. The aim of the study also extends to recommend, based on the findings of this study, how the food control system can be made more effective and efficient. The results of this research are therefore to affect conceptual and ultimately policy changes in South Africa in order to develop an integrated food control system. The thesis is developed through a series of five papers, two of which are already published in peer reviewed journals. Each paper addresses specific objectives of the overall aims. The papers reflect the use of a variety of methods for the study that include reviews, systematic reviews and questionnaires. Objectives of the study include defining fragmentation and the scope of the food control system, determining if fragmentation exists within the South African food control system, determining challenges associated with fragmentation as well as the relationship between fragmentation and challenges. Other objectives include determining how fragmentation began as well as providing recommendations on how the system can be integrated. Much of the study was conducted by interrogating one part of food control, namely veterinary drug and residue regulation. This part of the system was used as it became apparent in researching and producing the first journal paper that this part of the system was highly fragmented, plagued with challenges and could act as a window into the issues facing the food control system in its entirety. The study, through the five papers, determines that: 1. Fragmentation exists within the South African food control system. This fragmentation is structural, functional and legislative in nature. 2. Fragmentation is associated with a variety of challenges which have been classified through this research as fundamental, systemic, functional and policy challenges. 3. The existence of the challenges and fragmentation mean that the current food control system is dysfunctional. 4. The relationship between fragmentation and its associated challenges are not linear, i.e. fragmentation not only causes challenges but these challenges may actually cause fragmentation or exacerbate it. 5. Fragmentation and challenges need to be addressed together through leadership training and drafting of a food control policy that includes a communication policy. 6. The food control policy must integrate the system, structurally, functionally and legislatively. Based on the findings of the research, the two major interventions for change by the way on integration are determined. These include leadership training and drafting of a food control policy. Training of leaders is required to enhance a systems thinking philosophy in government while including collaborative and collective interaction with a view to enhance inter and intra departmental communication. By training senior managers, the effects of mandate obligations and poor systems conceptualisation can be addressed. A food control policy is required to define the scope of the food control system in South Africa in terms of structures, functions and legislation as well as put in place measures to address each of the identified categories of challenges and frame the integration that trained leaders would have identified. The food control policy must include a communication strategy that addresses frequency, quality and method of communication as well as strategies for collaboration and interdepartmental interaction. The food control policy must be the overarching framework of food control in South Africa. In terms of a preferred model for integration, the best fit model is considered a system akin to the integrated food control system indicated by the FAO/WHO, (2003b) where the system is functionally integrated and driven by one integrated policy. The integration of the system is urgently required as continuance of the challenges identified as well as fragmentation of the current system will entrench the dysfunctional nature of the food control system and compromise the safety of foods consumed in the country. In addition, the trust that consumers have in food products and the regulation efforts of Government will also be greatly compromised should the challenges and fragmentation continue.
Cities as hotspots for invasions: the case of the eThekwini Municipality.
(2019) Padayachee, Ashlyn Levadia.; Proches, Serban Mihai.
Increased anthropogenic activities (trade and travel) have caused an increase in the introduction of biological organisms outside of their native range. Biological invasions result in serious negative ecological, economic and social impacts in their invaded range and are responsible for a decline in native biodiversity. These negative impacts become more prominent in highly transformed environments, such as those found in cities which are often the first points of introduction for alien species. Durban (eThekwini) is situated on the east coast of South Africa and is one of the largest port cities on the African continent, making it an important economic centre for the country. It is the third most populated city in South Africa and is a major contributor towards tourism. Additionally, Durban is located in the Maputaland-Pondoland Albany, one of thirty-four global hotspots of biodiversity. This study focuses on the patterns, processes and drivers of biological invasions in Durban. I investigated three important aspects of alien species responses in urban environments: 1) precaution through the prevention of alien species introduction; 2) prioritisation through using a combination of early warning systems and techniques to identify potentially high-risk alien species; and 3) preparedness and response for a potential incursion event of Solenopsis invicta in Durban. I investigated the importance of preventing alien species introductions by identifying the pathways which facilitate the highest number of introductions for prioritisation for prevention efforts. Furthermore, I identified vectors responsible for secondary spread of alien species in cities. The majority of alien species were either released into nature or escaped from captivity and spread within cities through unaided dispersal. It is difficult to control the natural spread of species, therefore preventing alien species introductions is paramount. However, preventing the introduction of all alien species to a new area is difficult to achieve. Therefore, prioritising alien species for prevention efforts is an essential component of responding to biological invasions which will allow decision makers to more carefully allocate limited resources and time to species with the potential to result in severely negative impacts. Incorporating a holistic prioritisation approach based not only on alien species with a high-risk of invading new areas, but also the pathways which facilitate their introduction and the areas which are most at risk of being invaded is beneficial for decision makers in targeting priority species for prevention efforts. I developed a methodology, integrating these three aspects (species, pathways and sites), to select priority species to target for prevention efforts and identified areas most at risk of being invaded by these species using climatic suitability modelling to select priority targets for prevention efforts. Additionally, I used climatic models and pathway information to identify potential points of first introduction and sites of first naturalisation to target for active and passive surveillance endeavours. Solenopsis invicta Buren (the red imported fire ant) was identified as a potentially high-risk species posing serious ecological and socio-economic threats for Durban. I then explored opportunities for strategic response planning for Solenopsis invicta for Durban, South Africa. In doing so, I identified key priorities to help decision makers initiate strategic response planning for a potential incursion of this species to Durban. The research presented in this study outlines approaches that can assist with the prevention, prioritisation, and preparedness in responding to alien species in urban environments.
Climate change learning in an electricity utility: distribution division case study, Eskom, South Africa.
(2018) Govender, Poobalan Troy.; Bob, Urmilla.
One of the most significant ways in which humans have damaged the environment is the contribution to rapid global warming which causes major changes to the climate on earth, resulting in many negative impacts to humans and the environment. While the world mostly agrees that something needs to be done about climate change, there have been numerous stumbling blocks and setbacks in decisive actions on climate change. Businesses are realising that pro-climate change actions could lead to economic, environmental and health benefits, while also improving the sustainability of the organisation. In order to address climate change, major shifts in public policy and individual behaviour regarding energy, transportation and consumption will have to be made. Improving basic education, climate literacy and public understanding of the local dimensions of climate change are vital for public engagement and support for climate action. This research explored climate change learning in an electricity utility, using the Eskom’s Distribution Division in South Africa. The four objectives of this study included a critical review and assessment of the level of the Distribution Division’s climate change programme and environmental practices, an examination of staff perceptions and attitudes towards climate change and the Distribution Division’s environmental strategies, an examination of the challenges and opportunities presented by the environmental and climate change crisis for business in South Africa and in particular for electricity utilities in Africa, the development of a set of indicators to inform a framework for internal climate change capacity building programmes for electricity utility companies and the formulation of a policy and programme recommendations. Existing literature was reviewed, an online survey was conducted with employees, interviews were held with the key informants and focus group discussions were hosted. The research considered the demographic profile of respondents, attitudes to life and environmental issues, options for managing climate change, who respondents considered responsible for climate change action, who could be trusted to take climate change action and the Distribution Division’s climate change programme and environmental strategies. The findings of this study indicate that the Distribution Division employees considered career, job or employment and education as a higher priority for society. Water pollution was the most important environmental issue that employees experienced or impacted on their lives at present and this issue was also considered the most important issue globally. Furthermore, employees’ selfrated knowledge of climate change was above average and the majority expressed grave concern about climate change. Employees were also of the view that emissions from business or factories were the main cause of climate change. Employees also experienced hotter summers and water shortages which indicated to them that climate change is taking place presently and affects South Africa. The main options for actions that employees put forward were recycling waste and planting of trees. Furthermore, employees trusted themselves the most to take action on climate change and the main choice of format for climate change information that was preferred by employees was talks by experts, using graphs of future trends and pictures of what an area could look like in the future. This research supports the findings of other scholars who indicate that climate change learning and response is generally poor amongst most people, including workers, and that there are some specific interventions that are required to enhance climate change learning in the work environment. A range of options must be considered with the involvement of relevant stakeholders to find practical and meaningful options for climate change learning and response. Hence recommendations were made in this study to address the level of the Distribution Division’s climate change programme and environmental practices, staff perceptions and attitudes towards climate change and the Distribution Division’s environmental strategies, the challenges and opportunities presented by the environmental and climate change crisis for business in South Africa and for electricity utilities in Africa. A set of indicators (Table 6.1) to build the climate change capacity of employees and to minimise business and individual Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions was also developed within the framework for internal climate change capacity building programmes for electricity utilities. The policy and programme recommendations of this study included the prioritising of climate change learning in business with the necessary resources and leadership requirements, as well as a proposal to rebrand climate change to a more impactful, appropriate, relevant and meaningful term linked to human survival.
Climate change responses in urban low-income groups, Pietermaritzburg, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.
(2017) Hlahla, Sithabile.; Hill, Trevor Raymond.
South Africa is urbanising at an unsustainable rate such that the levels of urban poverty and inequality are rising, taking the country further from its attainment of the sustainable development goals, mainly, the elimination of poverty alleviation (Goal 1) and the reduction of inequalities (Goal 5). Climate change, which was voted the second greatest threat to national security in 2017, is exacerbating the situation, making it difficult for governments to juggle the demands of the increasing population with responses to climate-related impacts. Hence, urban low-income groups, due to the pre-existing high levels of poverty and inequality, lack the resources to respond to the current and future impacts of climate variability and change. They are disproportionally vulnerable and these impacts are not gender-neutral as gender inequalities and women’s socio-economic vulnerability contribute to their susceptibility to climate-induced impacts. Attempts are being made by the global community to address this ‘wicked problem’ via mitigation and adaptation measures, however, given the complexities and multi-scalar nature of the issues, the governance system is met with challenges. Central to addressing climate change are local governments who are at the forefront of vulnerability and are better positioned to design and implement climate change response strategies that minimise the impacts on local livelihoods and vulnerable communities. In light of this, the research investigates how low-income groups in the urban areas of Pietermaritzburg, South Africa, and their local governments, are responding to the current and future impacts of changing climatic conditions. Pietermaritzburg is an inland city and the second largest urban centre in the province of KwaZulu-Natal, a province that has a high vulnerability to climate-related risks and a low adaptive capacity. In addition, the city is confronted with growing rates of urban poverty, unemployment and unequal development. Using a case study approach, a questionnaire survey was conducted within four socio-economically marginalised urban communities. The respondents identified eight climate stressors that negatively impact their lifestyles and livelihoods, however, they lacked the knowledge as to the causes of climate change and how to cope. As a consequence, less than half of the respondents had adopted coping strategies, many of which were stop-gap reactive-type measures that provide limited capacity to build resilience and response capacity. In-depth interviews were conducted with local governments responsible for the case study communities, to assess their responses to climate variability and change. The municipalities have adopted measures to institutionalise climate responses, however, they are relatively new and implementation is slow, complex and fraught with limitations and competing socio-economic demands. In view of these findings, it is argued that with South Africa’s rapid rate of urbanisation and the projected climate changes, there is an urgent need to create enabling conditions for the adoption of engendered, cost-effective, long-term and sustainable coping strategies that are responsive to the needs of vulnerable groups. Furthermore, local governments must transform their governance structures and enlarge their knowledge base by engaging non-state actors, including the citizens, non-governmental organisations, community-based organisations, faith-based organisations, research institutions, and the private sector in the policy-making and implementation process. A transdisciplinary approach and a hybrid and inclusive governance are necessary to holistically address the combined impacts of climate change and rapid urbanisation. Moreover, the local government must increase investment in urban pro-poor climate change projects, which have, to some effect, been successful, and educate the communities on climate-related risks so as to increase their knowledge and response capabilities.
Climatic, environmental and socio-economic factors for malaria transmission modelling in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.
(2018) Ebhuoma, Osadolor Obiahon.; Gebreslasie, Michael Teweldemedhin.
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) largely bears the burden of the global malaria disease, with the transmission and intensity influenced by the interaction of a variety of climatic, environmental, socio-economic, and human factors. Other factors include parasitic and vectoral factors. In South Africa (SA) in general and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) in particular, the change of the malaria control intervention policy in 2000, may be responsible for the significant progress over the past two decades in reducing malaria case report to near zero. Currently, malaria incidence in KZN is less than 1 case per 1000 persons at risk placing the province in the malaria elimination stage. To meeting the elimination target, it is necessary to study the dynamics of malaria transmission in KZN employing various analytical/statistical models. Thus, the aim of this study was to explore the factors that influence malaria transmission by employing different analytical models and approaches in a setting with low malaria endemicity and transmission. This involves a sound appraisal of the existing literature on the contribution of remote sensing technology in understanding malaria transmission, evaluation of existing malaria control intervention; delineation of empirical map of malaria risk; provide information on the climatic, environmental and socio-economic factors that influences malaria risk and transmission; and formulation of a relevant malaria forecast and surveillance models. The investigator started with a systemic review of studies in chapter two. The studies were aimed at identifying significant remotely-sensed climatic and environmental determinants of malaria transmission for modelling malaria transmission and risk in SSA via a variety of statistical approaches. Normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) was identified as the most significant remotely-sensed climatic/environmental determinants of malaria transmission in SSA. Majority of the studies employed the generalised linear modelling approach compared to the Bayesian modelling approach. In the third chapter, malaria cases from the endemic areas of KZN with remotely-sensed climatic and environmental data were used to model the climatic and environmental determinants of malaria transmission and develop a malaria risk map in KZN. The spatiotemporal zero inflated Poisson model formulated indicates that at 95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI) NDVI (0.91; 95% BCI = 0.71, -1.12), precipitation (0.11; 95% BCI = 0.08, 0.14), elevation (0.05; 95% BCI = 0.032, 0.07) and night temperature (0.04; 95% BCI = 0.03, 0.04) are significantly related to malaria transmission in KZN, SA. The area with the highest risk of malaria morbidity in KZN was identified as the north-eastern part of the province. The fourth chapter was to establish the socio-economic status (SES) that influence malaria transmission in the endemic areas of KZN, by employing a Bayesian inference approach. The obtained posterior samples revealed that, significant association existed between malaria disease and low SES such as illiteracy, unemployment, no toilet facilities and no electricity at 95% BCI Lack of toilet facilities (odds ration (OR) =12.54; 95% BCI = 0.63, 24.38) exhibited the strongest association with malaria and highest risk of malaria disease. This was followed by no education (OR =11.83; 95% BCI = 0.54, 24.27) and lack of electricity supply (OR =10.56; 95% BCI = 0.43, 23.92) respectively. In the fifth chapter, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) intervention time series analysis (ITSA) was employed to model the effect of the malaria control intervention, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) on confirmed monthly malaria cases. The result is an abrupt and permanent decline of monthly malaria cases (w0= −1174.781, p-value = 0.003) following the implementation of the intervention policy. Finally, the sixth chapter employed a SARIMA modelling approach to predict malaria cases in the endemic areas of KZN. Three plausible models were identified, and based on the goodness of fit statistics and parameter estimation, the SARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1)12 model was identified as the best fit model. The SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model was used to forecast malaria cases during 2014, and it was observed to fit closely with the reported malaria cases during January to December 2014. The models generated in this study demonstrated the need for the KZN malaria program, relevant policy makers and stakeholders to further strengthen the KZN malaria elimination efforts. The required malaria elimination fortification are not limited to the implementation of additional sustainable developmental approach that combines both improved malaria intervention resources and socio-economic conditions, strengthening of existing community health workers, and strengthening of the already existing cross-border collaborations. However, more studies in the area of statistical modelling as well as practical applications of the generated models are encouraged. These can be accomplished by exploring new avenues via cross-sectional survey to understand the impact of community and social related structures in malaria burden; strengthening of existing community health workers; knowledge, attitude and practices in malaria control and intervention; and the likely effects of temporal/seasonal and spatial variations of malaria incidence in neighbouring endemic countries should be explored.
Collective identity and collective action in the management of common pool resources : a case study of Doro !Nawas Conservancy in Namibia.
(2012) Mosimane, Alfons Wabahe.; Breen, Charles Mackie.; Fincham, Robert John.
Conservation is increasingly understood to require collective action, particularly in the context of community based conservation. This thesis is premised on the proposition that understanding the dynamic nature of the relationship between collective identity and collective action is fundamental to management of common pool resources such as are created through establishment of community conservancies in Namibia. I used collective identity and resilience theories to develop a framework for exploring change in collective action in the Doro !Nawas conservancy in Namibia. The framework is based on the assumption that change in collective action is dependent upon the temporal changes in two attributes of collective identity; identification and affective commitment. It is suggested that the framework also yields insight into how these may be applied in adaptive management. The research is informed by an interpretive paradigm accepting that collective identity and collective action are social constructs and that personal meanings could be revealed through in-depth interviews and documentary analysis. Computer aided software (Nvivo), manual analysis and a mix of inductive and deductive analysis yielded excerpts, codes and themes that were used to interpret change in the two attributes. The framework I proposed to understand how identification and affective commitment influence collective action was helpful as a general model but it tends to convey a degree of cohesion and homogeneity that does not reflect the real situation, particularly during the ‘collapse’ phase when members of the collective respond to disturbances. My results show that collectives, including organisations, should be understood as collectives of individuals and groups of individuals who express differing levels of identification and affective commitment. Narratives can be used to track change in identification and affective commitment in collectives. Thus, the identification and affective commitment of members is reflected in the language they use to express feelings, thoughts and experiences toward the collective and behaviours that are supportive or destructive to collective identity. A need for incorporating collective identity into adaptive management is identified. I suggest that incorporating collective identity in strategic adaptive management would make those who engage with the process mindful of the collective identity, and therefore more inclined to manage collective identity in order to achieve the collective action required for successful common pool resources management. I use the findings of my research to identify four issues for further research in community based collectives: firstly, research that focuses on the how to design institutional arrangements for conservancies and similar organisations that are more accessible and responsive to the collective; secondly, research on understanding the role and influence benefit sharing can have in sustaining a collective identity that is supportive of conservancies and how it would contribute to making these systems more resilient; thirdly, research to determine how strategic adaptive management can be restructured and implemented in conservancies and protected areas so that it helps to sustain a collective identity and the collective actions that are required to secure them for future generations; finally, whether the long term intentions of community based conservation might be better served if the instruments of governance and the procedures for their application were engineered to make these social ecological systems more robust and if so, how this might be achieved.
A comparative assessment of the socio-economic and spatial factors impacting the implementation of renewable energy in marginalised communities: the case of Inanda and Bergville.
(2016) Munien, Suveshnee.; Bob, Urmilla.; Matthews, Alan Peter.
Access to modern, safe and cost effective energy is undisputed in its ability to facilitate development among poor countries, however, achieving energy security is plagued by challenges. Renewable energies and technologies have been described to address multiple needs and is implemented widely in developing contexts. However, the implementation of renewable energy sources and technologies are rarely guided by an understanding of community and household socio-demographic and energy profiles. Although South Africa displays high levels of electrification, many poor communities fail to sustain their use of modern sources such as electricity due to costs. This results in fuel-switching which is associated with the use of fuels such as fuelwood and paraffin, and raises health and safety concerns, in relation to the health of women and children in particular. Similarly, literature establishes the linkages between income, level of education, household size and reliance on specific energy sources. More importantly, studies show that energy profiles and willingness to adopt renewable energy sources is also influenced by factors such as culture, tradition and energy policy. Additionally, there is a dearth of empirically based studies that profile household energy practices, attitudes and perceptions. This study adopted a comparative approach in examining household energy profiles, practices and needs in relation to peri-urban (Inanda) and rural (Bergville) communities in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. A mixed methodological approach was adopted, and 800 households (400 in Inanda and 400 in Bergville) were profiled in relation to socio-economic conditions, energy profiles, and attitudes and perceptions of renewable energy sources. These findings were complemented by two focus group discussions (one in each of the communities), involving specific activities, including participatory mapping exercises. The households for the survey interviews were chosen using a multi-stage, spatially-based random sampling approach. The focus group discussion participants were purposively chosen. Results show that households and respondents from both communities display significant socio-economic and energy-related stressors, however, these effects are more pronounced within Bergville. The differences in household size and income between Bergville and Inanda resulted in significantly different energy behaviours. Households in Bergville show a higher reliance on collected, cheaper energy sources, for example, fuelwood and dung while Inanda households preferred paraffin, gas and electricity. This study also shows that household income and size, and respondents level of education, sex and employment status influenced level of awareness of renewable energy sources. Furthermore, the simulated indicators demonstrate that increases in household income are associated with an upward progression on energy ladders, specifically the increased consumption of and expenditure on modern sources of energy. Although awareness of renewable energy sources was limited, respondents did indicate a willingness to adopt and pay for technologies such as solar panels and cookers. Nevertheless, both groups of respondents associated the use of renewable energies with the idea of being poor. These strong socio-cultural factors may also prevail as potential obstacles in the up-take and use of renewable energy technologies. Additionally, respondents highlighted their reluctance with solar water heaters as they only meet one of their many energy needs. Concern was also raised in relation to the up-take of solar thermal cookers, specifically regarding its size. In this regard, energy policy needs to implement technologies that offer multiple energy services. A key finding of this study is that renewable energy technologies have significant potential in alleviating the energy-related stressors and lived experiences of energy poverty amongst the Bergville and Inanda communities. Moreover, targeted awareness campaigns may also improve the sustained use of these technologies. A key contribution of this study is the establishment of a conceptual model to inform the implementation of renewable energy and associated technologies within the rural and peri-urban contexts of South Africa.
Connectivity of two scleractinian corals in the south west Indian Ocean.
(2010) Macdonald, Angus Hector Harold.; Schleyer, Michael H.; Lamb, Jennifer Margaret.
Generations of hard corals have built the complex reef ecosystems that harbour a huge diversity of sea-life in the world’s shallow tropical oceans. These undergo both sexual and clonal reproduction, and may contain signatures in their genomes which help to decipher the riddles of past population dynamics and evolutionary history. Two species of coral, Acropora austera and Platygyra daedalea, were collected from sites along the east African coastline from Kenya in the north to Maputaland, South Africa in the south, and from the Chagos Archipelago. Sequences of two different DNA regions were tested, in a preliminary study, for their potential ability to elucidate connectivity and differentiation among these coral populations. These were the nuclear ribosomal ITS region of P. daedalea populations, and a previously-unused marker, the carbonic anhydrase 3/550 nuclear intron of A. austera. These molecular markers indicated high levels of connectivity amongst populations in a preliminary study based on limited sample sizes and a subset of populations. It was decided to further explore the variability of the carbonic anhydrase 3/550 intron, which showed evidence of subdivision and structuring within Mozambique populations relative to South African populations, in a study in which both the sample size per site and the number and range of sampled sites were increased. ITS sequences, although highly variable, revealed no population differentiation in P. daedalea; STR markers were used in subsequent studies of population differentiation in this species. Populations of both A. austera and P. daedalea showed signs of high connectivity along the region of the coastline sampled in this study. However, there appeared to be a disjunction in ecological connectivity between reefs in Maputaland, South Africa and those in southern Mozambique, between Durban and Maputo where the Agulhas Current originates. This was reinforced in A. austera populations which displayed a region of genetic discontinuity between Inhaca Island and Maputaland reefs of the central reef complex, in the region of Rabbit Rock. Northern reef complexes also harboured unique haplotypes in contrast to southern reefs which shared all haplotypes with those in the north, an indication that northern reefs have seeded the southern (Maputaland) reefs. P. daedalea populations appeared evolutionarily panmictic over scales relevant to this study. Evidence for fine-scale structure indicated that populations were separated from one another over ecologically relevant time-scales. These populations were defined by both their habitats and their sampling location. There was a possibility that the Platygyra species complex included cryptic species that were not distinguishable from P. daedalea. However, the disjunction in the connectivity between northern and southern population groups was also evident in the population structure of P. daedalea. There was a net immigration of propagules of both P. daedalea and A. austera into populations north of the disjunction between groups, where the prevailing current regime is dictated by the Mozambique Channel eddies. In contrast populations to the south of the disjunction (the southern population group) which are subject to the swiftly flowing Agulhas Current, showed a net emigration of propagules from Maputaland reefs. These emigrants were likely to be lost to inhospitable habitat south of the marginal Maputaland region. Although there was evidence for migration of both Platygyra and Acropora propagules between the Bazaruto Archipelago reefs and certain Maputaland reefs, genetic exchange between Mozambique and Maputaland reefs appeared to be limited and may have occurred primarily at evolutionary rather than demographic levels. Managers may need to treat the regional Maputaland reefs as separate stocks and manage them accordingly, as the relative isolation of these corals in the central and southern reef complexes in Maputaland, South Africa, means that they are at risk to losing species to evolutionary extinction. It is also important that reef health in northern Mozambique and Tanzania is maintained as, despite evidence of a break in demographic connectivity, between reefs in these regions and those in Maputaland, there was evidence to suggest that reefs were connected at evolutionary scales, thus maintaining levels of genetic diversity on southern African reefs.
Critical systematic engagements with rural development and nature conservation organizations.
(2004) Luckett, Sidney.; Fincham, Robert John.; Parker, Benjamin Philip.
This collection of papers represents the author's maturing reflection on systemic engagements with three different organizations within the latter half of the first decade in post-Apartheid South Africa. The first two papers deal with two different systemic engagements: the first with a rural community development organization in a rural area of KwaZulu-Natal south of Durban and the second with the implementation of a district health system by a provincial health authority, also in KwaZulu-Natal. The last three are concerned with the theoretical and practical aspects of a single critical systems intervention (CSI) for policy development within the KwaZulu-Natal Nature Conservation Service, a parastatal nature conservation organization. The first paper, Designing a Management System for a Rural community Development Organization Using a Systemic Action Research Process describes the use of Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) for the development of a Human Activity System (HAS) Model, that is, a conceptual model of purposeful human activities, to facilitate debate regarding a 'problem situation' faced by the community development organization. A Critical Systems Intervention to Improve the Implementation of a District Health System in KwaZulu-Natal is the second paper. As the title suggests, this paper describes a Critical Systems Intervention in a district health system implementation process. By using Concept Maps and Sign-Graph diagrams with SSM this paper contributes theoretically to the growing body of literature on methodological pluralism. Paper 3, Towards a critical systems approach to policy formulation in organizations contributes to the literature on organizational policy. It is noted in this paper that whilst there is a substantial body of literature on organizational strategy as well as on public policy, there is a dearth of literature on organizational policy. The thrust of the paper is twofold. Firstly, it draws a distinction and shows the relationship between organizational policy and organizational strategy. Secondly, building on this distinction, it develops a critical systems approach to policy formulation. Paper 4, Environmental Paradigms, Biodiversity Conservation and Critical Systems Thinking develops a framework of environmental paradigms which may be used for any CSI in nature management as a tool for values clarification. The collection concludes with Paper 5, A Critical Systems Intervention for Policy Development within a Nature Conservation Organization. It discusses the process undertaken in the nature conservation organization - Ezemvelo KwaZulu-Natal Wildlife - intervention and shows how the approach to policy formulation (developed in Paper 3) and the framework for environmental paradigms (developed in Paper 4) were used in the intervention.
Development of a methodology for the delineation of air quality management areas in South Africa.
(2010) Scott, Gregory MacDonald.; Diab, Roseanne Denise.
Since 1992 the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism (DEAT), now the Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA), acknowledged that pollution and waste management governance was inadequate in dealing with South Africa’s changing social and industrial context. This triggered an extensive legislative revision, with the new National Environmental Management: Air Quality Act (No. 39 of 2004) (AQA) being partially implemented on 11 September 2005 and full implementation expected by 1 April 2010. The goal of this research was to develop a methodology for the delineation of the boundaries of air quality management areas in South Africa. The preliminary objective of the research was to identify the specific criteria that should be considered when developing the methodology. A review of the methodologies used internationally was undertaken, looking specifically at regions and countries with similar effects-based air quality legislation. The review concluded that the international practice regarding boundary determination was data intensive, relying heavily on the results of ambient air quality monitoring and the results of dispersion modelling based on comprehensive emissions inventories. Another commonality between the methodologies was the use of administrative boundaries as the borders of air quality management areas. South Africa has limited ambient air quality monitoring and there is no national emissions inventory for criteria pollutants. In the absence of this information an alternative approach was required. The next objective of the research was to identify or develop a proxy methodology for assessing the impact of each of these criteria to be used in the boundary determination. The criteria assessed as part of this research included, population density, emission criteria (industrial, mining and domestic), topography and administrative boundaries. A further objective of the research was to combine all the criteria to produce a single indicator or value as to the air pollution impact potential of the area under consideration. This methodology was then applied in the South African context. The final objective of the research was to assess the results of the application of the methodology on the regulatory framework proposed by the AQA, at the national, provincial and local government levels. The methodology has proved successful in the identification of areas with high air pollution impact potential in South Africa. This has allowed for a review of the boundaries proclaimed for the Vaal Triangle Airshed Priority Area and the Highveld Priority Area. In both cases significant revisions of the boundaries are recommended, however due to the controversial nature of these recommendations, it is proposed that these revisions are deferred until the five- yearly review phase of the priority area management plan. The results also recommended the proclamation of two additional national priority areas. The first was the proposed Magaliesberg Priority Area, which covers the north-western areas of Gauteng and the eastern areas of the North-West. This area combines the high density residential, commercial and industrial areas of Gauteng with the high density mining and industrial areas of the North-West. However, it is recommended that further ambient air quality monitoring and research is required prior to the proclamation of this national priority area. The second new national priority area proposed is the Waterberg Priority Area. This proclamation is a proactive declaration based on the proposed industrial developments earmarked for this area. Due to extensive coal reserves in the area, the development of additional coal-fired power generation, a coal to liquid facility and other coal beneficiation projects are currently under consideration. The research has identified five potential provincial priority areas. The provincial priority areas are associated with the major metropolitan centres in the country and their adjacent district municipalities. All of the proposed provincial priority areas, with the exception of the one proposed in Gauteng, require further ambient air quality monitoring and research prior to their proclamation. It is recommended that the City of Johannesburg / City of Tshwane provincial priority area be considered for immediate declaration. The review of the district and local municipalities identified in Table 24 of the National Framework highlighted the conservative nature of the initial assessment. The review amended the classification of 33 of the local municipalities, with 32 being reclassified downwards and only one being reclassified upwards. This also highlighted the subjective nature of the initial assessment. It is recommended that the local municipalities identified as having “Poor” or “Potentially Poor” air quality rating, be prioritised as potential sites in the national ambient air quality monitoring network and receive assistance in the development of their air quality management plans. This ensures that the limited financial and human resources assigned to air quality management in South Africa are deployed in those areas with the greatest need.

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