Doctoral Degrees (Environmental Hydrology)

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Development of a framework for an integrated time-varying agrohydrological forecast system for southern Africa.
(2007) Ghile, Yonas Beyene.; Schulze, Roland Edgar.
Policy makers, water managers, farmers and many other sectors of the society in southern Africa are confronting increasingly complex decisions as a result of the marked day-to-day, intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of climate. Hence, forecasts of hydro-climatic variables with lead times of days to seasons ahead are becoming increasingly important to them in making more informed risk-based management decisions. With improved representations of atmospheric processes and advances in computer technology, a major improvement has been made by institutions such as the South African Weather Service, the University of Pretoria and the University of Cape Town in forecasting southern Africa’s weather at short lead times and its various climatic statistics for longer time ranges. In spite of these improvements, the operational utility of weather and climate forecasts, especially in agricultural and water management decision making, is still limited. This is so mainly because of a lack of reliability in their accuracy and the fact that they are not suited directly to the requirements of agrohydrological models with respect to their spatial and temporal scales and formats. As a result, the need has arisen to develop a GIS based framework in which the “translation” of weather and climate forecasts into more tangible agrohydrological forecasts such as streamflows, reservoir levels or crop yields is facilitated for enhanced economic, environmental and societal decision making over southern Africa in general, and in selected catchments in particular. This study focuses on the development of such a framework. As a precursor to describing and evaluating this framework, however, one important objective was to review the potential impacts of climate variability on water resources and agriculture, as well as assessing current approaches to managing climate variability and minimising risks from a hydrological perspective. With the aim of understanding the broad range of forecasting systems, the review was extended to the current state of hydro-climatic forecasting techniques and their potential applications in order to reduce vulnerability in the management of water resources and agricultural systems. This was followed by a brief review of some challenges and approaches to maximising benefits from these hydro-climatic forecasts. A GIS based framework has been developed to serve as an aid to process all the computations required to translate near real time rainfall fields estimated by remotely sensed tools, as well as daily rainfall forecasts with a range of lead times provided by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models into daily quantitative values which are suitable for application with hydrological or crop models. Another major component of the framework was the development of two methodologies, viz. the Historical Sequence Method and the Ensemble Re-ordering Based Method for the translation of a triplet of categorical monthly and seasonal rainfall forecasts (i.e. Above, Near and Below Normal) into daily quantitative values, as such a triplet of probabilities cannot be applied in its original published form into hydrological/crop models which operate on a daily time step. The outputs of various near real time observations, of weather and climate models, as well as of downscaling methodologies were evaluated against observations in the Mgeni catchment in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, both in terms of rainfall characteristics as well as of streamflows simulated with the daily time step ACRU model. A comparative study of rainfall derived from daily reporting raingauges, ground based radars, satellites and merged fields indicated that the raingauge and merged rainfall fields displayed relatively realistic results and they may be used to simulate the “now state” of a catchment at the beginning of a forecast period. The performance of three NWP models, viz. the C-CAM, UM and NCEP-MRF, were found to vary from one event to another. However, the C-CAM model showed a general tendency of under-estimation whereas the UM and NCEP-MRF models suffered from significant over-estimation of the summer rainfall over the Mgeni catchment. Ensembles of simulated streamflows with the ACRU model using ensembles of rainfalls derived from both the Historical Sequence Method and the Ensemble Re-ordering Based Method showed reasonably good results for most of the selected months and seasons for which they were tested, which indicates that the two methods of transforming categorical seasonal forecasts into ensembles of daily quantitative rainfall values are useful for various agrohydrological applications in South Africa and possibly elsewhere. The use of the Ensemble Re-ordering Based Method was also found to be quite effective in generating the transitional probabilities of rain days and dry days as well as the persistence of dry and wet spells within forecast cycles, all of which are important in the evaluation and forecasting of streamflows and crop yields, as well as droughts and floods. Finally, future areas of research which could facilitate the practical implementation of the framework were identified.
Rainwater harvesting systems and their influences on field scale soil hydraulic properties, water fluxes and crop production.
(2009) Kosgei, Job Rotich.; Jewitt, Graham Paul Wyndham.; Lorentz, Simon Antony.
South Africa, in common with many parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, is facing increasing water shortages. Limited available water arising from a low and poorly distributed rainfall, must supply domestic, agricultural, industrial and ecosystem needs. Agricultural activities of smallholder farmers, who largely occupy arid to semi-arid areas, are rainfall-driven as they do not have the capacity to develop conventional water sources, such as boreholes and large dams. This situation has led to persistent food shortages, low income and a lack of investments, resulting in high dependency levels of which examples include over reliance on social grants, household crop production that largely relies on external inputs and availability of cheap unskilled labour. A growing global perception that water for agriculture has low value relative to other value uses could further jeopardize the already over exploited agricultural water. Developing economies such as South Africa are likely to favour, in terms of water allocation, e.g. electricity generation through steam turbines relative to irrigation needs because industry plays a more significant role in the economy. While substantial scientific research has resulted in enhanced yields through in-situ water harvesting and soil and water conservation, as well as crop and soil fertility management and plant breeding, less work has been done to assess the impact of intermittent dry spells on crop yield, particularly with regard to smallholders. Indeed, the interventions that have been promoted to smallholders may provide little buffer against such events. In addition, the increase in yield from many such efforts has been marginal and inconsistent, leading some to conclude that semi-arid environments are hydrologically marginal, have no significant agricultural potential and any attempts to intensify agricultural activities would lead to severe environmental degradation. This study investigated the rainwater harvesting and storage potential among rainfed farmers in a summer-rainfall region of South Africa. The influences of this practice on soil hydraulic properties, water fluxes and crop production is detailed in subsequent chapters. Using historical meteorological data, this study commenced with an investigation of the factors that influence the length of maize (Zea Mays L.) growing seasons notably the prevalence of early season dry spells and late season low temperature which could be responsible for persistent low maize yields amongst smallholder rainfed farmers (Chapter 2). An increasing trend of dry spells was observed which was found to influence sowing dates and the length of the growing season. The influence of no-tillage (NT) as an intervention to secure more root-zone soil moisture was investigated in comparison to conventional tillage (CT) practices. Field experiments, with the aim of quantifying the extent to which water productivity and yields can be improved among smallholder rainfed farmers in the Potshini catchment, Thukela basin; South Africa (Chapter 8), were conducted during both the dry and growing seasons from 2005/06 – 2007/08 seasons at four sites with similar soil textural properties and slopes. Each site was developed as a runoff plot and was fitted with moisture and runoff measuring devices. Meteorological parameters were measured from a weather station installed nearby. A snapshot electrical resistivity survey was used to compliment soil moisture profiling. The analyses of the different measurements provided information on various water flow paths and potential downstream hydrological effects (Chapter 3). The average cumulative runoff was 7% and 9% of seasonal rainfall in NT and CT treatments over the three seasons. Changes over time in soil hydraulic properties due to tillage were examined at two depths through infiltration tests and determination of their bulk densities. These included changes in steady state infiltration rate and hydraulic conductivity (Chapter 4), interaction between soil infiltration and soil characteristics (Chapter 5) and water conducting porosity and water retention (Chapter 6). In 50% of the sites, NT treatments showed significantly higher hydraulic conductivity compared to CT treatments. In response to an unexploited opportunity identified to produce vegetables in winter, an assessment of the potential for runoff water harvesting systems using polyethylene lining as an alternative cost-effective construction method for underground rainwater storage systems, particularly in areas where groundwater levels fluctuate rapidly was undertaken (Chapter 7). The process from conceptualization through design, construction and utilization of the stored water is described and recommendations for the design and construction of such systems made. Finally, various case studies which highlight the potential impact of improved soil profile moisture storage, the additional benefits of water stored in tanks and recommendations for tailored policies to support household food and income generation are made (Chapter 8).
Wetland geomorphology and floodplain dynamics on the hydrologically variable Mfolozi River, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.
(2008) Garden, Suzanne.; Ellery, William Nolan.
Wetlands in southern Africa can be considered a rarity, forming despite a regional negative water balance and a continental background of wide scale incision. These particular characteristics lead to southern African wetlands generally forming on drainage lines, where incision has been momentarily paused and water is locally abundant. The exact evolutionary history of valley bottom and floodplain wetlands is varied. However, their development follows four main themes; 1) those that evolve due to resistant lithologies outcropping on a drainage line and acting as local base levels, 2) those that occur on the coast, with current sea level preventing drainage line incision, 3) those that arise from a particular relationship with a trunk or tributary channel that blocks a drainage line with sediment, and finally, 4) those that occur in a region of dramatic loss of confinement, resulting in the formation of a wetland alluvial fan. Despite varied histories, all wetlands share a common thread, developing along a continuum from small and steep unchanneled valley bottom wetlands to large and flat floodplain wetlands. Incision in valley-bottom wetlands is controlled by a geomorphic slope threshold, whereby for a given wetland size, a particular slope may be considered stable. Wetlands exceeding the particular slope for their size are most likely already incised, or are vulnerable to incision in the near future. This thesis examines the general evolution of drainage line wetlands, followed by a detailed study of a large coastal floodplain, the Mfolozi River Floodplain, located on KwaZulu-Natal’s northern coastal plain. The Mfolozi Floodplain is one of South Africa’s largest at 19 000ha and is located just south of the world heritage site of Lake St. Lucia, with the St. Lucia and Mfolozi River mouths occasionally joining at the coast. Although once a mosaic of Cyperus papyrus and Phragmites australis permanent and seasonal wetland, approximately 60% of the floodplain has been reclaimed since the 1920’s for large-scale sugar cane cultivation. A smaller percentage is used for subsistence farming, while the remaining lower portion falls in the Greater St. Lucia Wetlands Park (which was renamed iSimangeliso Park in November 2007). The formation of the large coastal valley in which the Mfolozi Floodplain now sits was created during a period of incision during the last glacial maximum 18 000 BP when sea level was 120m below the current level. The lowered sea level resulted in regional river rejuvenation and valley down cutting. The Mfolozi River valley became deeply incised resulting in the formation of incised meanders upstream of the Lebombo Mountains. Below the mountains, less resistant lithologies of the Maputaland and Zululand Groups allowed the development of a wide coastal valley. Following the last glacial maximum, sea level rose, reaching its present level approximately 6000 BP. As sea level rose, coastal valleys were drowned and began to infill with sediments. Above the floodplain, the Mfolozi River follows a meandering course in an incised confined valley. Upon passing through the Lebombo Mountains, the valley widens considerably from 915 m to over 6 km in just 1.15 km. This rapid change from confinement to a broad floodplain setting results in a reduction of carrying capacity of the Mfolozi River, creating a node of large-scale deposition at the floodplain head in the form of an alluvial fan. Deposition in this region causes a local oversteepening of the valley’s longitudinal profile, with a gradient of 0.1%. Contrastingly, the mid- floodplain is almost flat, with a decrease in elevation of just 1 m over almost 6 km (0.02%). The lower floodplain, where gradient is completely controlled by sea level, has a steeper gradient of 0.05%. The reason for the rather drastic slope break in the mid floodplain is currently unknown, although it may be related to faulting in the underlying Tertiary aged Zululand Group, which is currently concealed by Quaternary deposits. In addition, tributary drainage lines that once flowed into the Mfolozi River have been blocked by long-term sediment accumulation on the floodplain. As a result, these drainage lines have become drowned and provide local conditions for the formation and accumulation of peat. Besides geological setting, hydrology is commonly recognized as being the other most important factor in valley evolution. Flow in the Mfolozi River has been characterized as highly variable relative to the rest of the globe. The Black Mfolozi has the lowest Coefficient of Variation (CV) at 61%, followed by the White Mfolozi at 69% and the Mfolozi River at 79%. In addition, catchment precipitation was shown to be variable, especially when compared to global values. As a result of variable rainfall and discharge, the Mfolozi River shows hysteresis in sediment concentration on an annual scale, and there is an indication that hysteresis may also occur on a longer time scale during wet and dry rainfall cycles. This however, needs to be confirmed with a longerterm data set. Variable discharge and sediment transport leads to different floodplain processes and dynamics than would be expected for a river of regular flow. Since flow is generally very low in the Mfolozi River, and is characterised by a series of extremely large outlier flood events, the persistence of flood features is likely to be large. In addition, it is likely that extreme flood events are the primary drivers of floodplain evolution and dynamics in such variable settings. The Mfolozi Floodplain wetland study throws light on floodplain process rates, and the forces behind floodplain dynamics in such hydrologically variable settings.
Impact of irrigation with gypsiferous mine water on the water resources of parts of the upper Olifants basin.
(2007) Idowu, Olufemi Abiola.; Lorentz, Simon Antony.
The generation of large quantities of mine wastewater in South African coal mines and the needs for a cost effective, as well as an environmentally sustainable manner of mine water disposal, have fostered interests in the possibility of utilizing mine water for irrigation. Such a possibility will not only provide a cost-effective method of minimizing excess mine drainage, as treatment using physical, chemical and biological methods can be prohibitively expensive, but will also stabilize the dry-land crop production by enhancing dry season farming. Considering the arid to semi-arid climate of South Africa, the utilization of mine water for irrigation will also boost the beneficial exploitation of the available water resources and relieve the increasing pressure on, and the competition for, dwindling amounts of good quality water by the various sectors of the economy. The disposal of excess gypsiferous mine water through irrigation has been researched in a few collieries in the Witbank area. In this study, the assessment of the impacts of using gypsiferous mine water for irrigation were carried out in parts of the Upper Olifants basin upstream of Witbank Dam, using the ACRU2000 model and its salinity module known as ACRUSalinity. The study area was chosen on the bases of locations of previous field trials and the availability of mine water for large-scale irrigation. The primary objectives of the study were the development of relevant modules in ACRU2000 and ACRUSalinity to enable appropriate modelling and assessment of the impact of large-scale irrigation with mine water and the application of the modified models to the chosen study area. The methodology of the study included the modifications of ACRU2000 and ACRUSalinity and their application at three scales of study, viz. centre pivot, catchment and mine scales. The soils, hydrologic and salt distribution response units obtained from the centre pivot scale study were employed as inputs into the catchment scale study. The soils, hydrologic and salt distribution response units obtained from the catchment assessment were in turn applied in similar land segments identified in the mine used for the mine scale study. The modifications carried out included the incorporation of underground reservoirs as representations of underground mine-out areas, multiple water and associated salt load transfers into and out of a surface reservoir, seepages from groundwater into opencast pits, precipitation of salts in irrigated and non-irrigated areas and the incorporation of a soil surface layer into ACRUSalinity to account for the dissolution of salts during rainfall events. Two sites were chosen for the centre pivot scale study. The two sites (Syferfontein pivot of 21 ha, located in Syferfontein Colliery on virgin soils; Tweefontein pivot of 20 ha, located in Kleinkopje Colliery on rehabilitated soils) were equipped with centre pivots (which irrigated agricultural crops with mine water), as well as with rainfall, irrigation water and soil water monitoring equipment. The pivots were contoured and waterways constructed so that the runoff could leave the pivots over a weir (at Tweefontein pivot) or flume (at Syferfontein pivot) where the automatic monitoring of the quantity and quality of runoff were carried out. The runoff quantities and qualities from the pivots were used for verification of the modified ACRU2000 and ACRUSalinity. The catchment scale study was on the Tweefontein Pan catchment, which was a virgin area mainly within the Kleinkopje Colliery, draining into the Tweefontein Pan. The data on the water storage and qualities in Tweefontein Pan, as well as the soil water salinities in the irrigated area located within the catchment were used for verification of results. In the catchment scale study, different scenarios, including widespread irrigation on virgin and rehabilitated soils, were simulated and evaluated. For the mine scale study, the Kleinkopje Colliery was used. The colliery was delineated into 29 land segment areas and categorized into seven land use types, on the basis of the vegetation and land uses identified in different parts of colliery. The centre pivot and catchment scale studies indicated that the impacts of irrigation with low quality mine water on the water resources are dependent on the soil types, climate, the characteristics and the amount of the irrigation mine water applied, whether irrigation was on virgin on rehabilitated soils and the status of the mine in terms of whether a regional water table has been re-established in an opencast mining system or not. The studies further indicated that the irrigation of agricultural crops with low quality mine water may lead to increases in soil water salinity and drainage to groundwater, but that the mine water use for irrigation iii purposes can be successfully carried out as most of the water input onto the irrigated area will be lost through total evaporation and a significant proportion of the salt input, both from rainfall and irrigation water, will either be precipitated in the soil horizons or dissolved in the soil water of the soil horizons. By irrigating with a saline mine water therefore, the salts associated with the low quality mine water can be removed from the water system, thereby reducing the possibility of off-site salt export and environmental pollution. On-site salt precipitation, however, may lead to accumulation of salts in the soil horizons and consequent restriction of crop yields. Therefore, efficient cropping practices, such as leaching and selection of tolerant crops to the expected soil salinity, may be required in order to avoid the impact of long-term salinity build up and loss of crop yields. The simulated mean annual runoff and salt load contribution to Witbank Dam from the Kleinkopje Colliery were 2.0 x 103 MI and 392 tons respectively. The mean annual runoff and salt load represented 2.7% and 1.4% of the average water and salt load storage in Witbank Dam respectively. About 45% of the total water inflow and 65% of the total salt load contribution from the study area into Witbank Dam resulted from groundwater storage. From the scenario simulations, the least salt export would occur when widespread irrigation is carried out in rehabilitated areas prior to the re-establishment of the water table due to a lower runoff and runoff salt load. It may therefore be a better water management strategy in active collieries if irrigation with mine water is carried out on rehabilitated soils. In conclusion, this research work has shown that successful irrigation of some (salt tolerance) crops with low quality mine water can be done, although increases in the soil water salinity of the irrigated area, runoff from the irrigated area and drainage to the groundwater store can occur. Through the modifications carried out in the ACRU2000 model and the ACRUSalinity module in this research work, a tool has been developed, not only for application in the integrated assessment of impact of irrigation with mine water on water resources, but also for the integrated assessment and management of water resources in coal-mining environments in South Africa.
The hydrological basis for the protection of water resources to meet environmental and societal requirements.
(2006) Taylor, Valerie.; Jewitt, Graham Paul Wyndham.; Schulze, Roland Edgar.
In common with other natural systems, aquatic ecosystems provide a wealth of economically valuable services and long-term benefits to society. However, growing human populations, coupled with increased aspirations for improved quality of life, have lead to intense pressure on the world's finite freshwater resources. Frequently, particularly in developing countries, there are both perceived and genuine incompatibilities between ecological and societal needs for freshwater. Environmental Flow Assessment (EFA) is essentially a tool for water resources management and its ultimate goal should be the integration of ecological and societal systems. While other ecological components (i.e. biological and geomorphological) are equally important to EFA, this thesis investigates the role of the hydrological cycle and the hydrological regime in providing the ecosystem goods and services upon which society depends. Ecological and societal systems operate at different temporal, spatial and organisational scales and hydronomic zoning or sub-zoning is proposed as an appropriate water resources management technique for matching these different scales. A major component of this thesis is a review of the South African water resources management framework and, in particular, the role of the Reserve (comprising a basic human right to survival water as well as an ecological right of the aquatic resource to maintain ecological functioning) in facilitating ecologically sustainable water resources management. South African water resources management is in the early stages of water allocation reform and the Department of Water Affairs and Forestry has stated that "the water allocation process must allow for the sustainable use of water resources and must promote the efficient and non-wasteful use of water". Thus, new ways of approaching the compromise between ecological and societal needs for freshwater water are required. This thesis argues that this requires that the focus of freshwater ecosystems be extended beyond the aquatic resource, so that societal activities on the catchment are linked to the protection of instream flows. Streamflow variability plays a major role in structuring the habitat templates that sustain aquatic and riparian ecological functioning and has been associated with increased biodiversity. Biodiversity and societal well-being are interlinked. However, there is a need in EFA for knowledge of the most influential components of the streamflow regime in order that stakeholders may anticipate any change in ecosystem goods and services as a result of their disruption to the hydrological cycle. The identification of high information hydrological indicators for characterising highly variable streamflow regimes is useful to water resources management, particularly where thresholds of streamflow regime characteristics have ecological relevance. Several researchers have revisited the choice of hydrological indices in order to ascertain whether some indices explain more of the hydrological variability in different aspects of streamflow regimes than others. However, most of the research relating to hydrological indices has focused primarily on regions with temperate climates. In this thesis multivariate analysis is applied to a relatively large dataset of readily computed ecologically relevant hydrological indices (including the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration and the South African Desktop Reserve Model indices) extracted from long-term records of daily flows at 83 sites across South Africa. Principal Component Analysis is applied in order to highlight general patterns of intercorrelation, or redundancy, among the indices and to identify a minimum subset of hydrological indices which explain the majority of the variation among the indices of different components of the streamflow regimes found in South Africa. The results indicate the value of including several of the IHA indices in EFAs for South African rivers. Statistical analysis is meaningful only when calculated for a sufficiently long hydrological record, and in this thesis the length of record necessary to obtain consistent hydrological indices, with minimal influence of climatic variation, is investigated. The results provide a guide to the length of record required for analysis of the high information hydrological indices representing the main components of the streamflow regime, for different streamflow types. An ecosystem-based approach which recognises the hydrological connectivity of the catchment landscape in linking aquatic and terrestrial systems is proposed as a framework for ecologically sustainable water resources management. While this framework is intended to be generic, its potential for application in the South African Water Allocation Reform is illustrated with a case study for the Mkomazi Catchment in KwaZulu-Natal. Hydronomic sub-zoning, based on the way in which societal activities disrupt the natural hydrological processes, both off-stream and instream, is applied to assess the incompatibilities between societal and ecological freshwater needs. Reference hydrological, or pre-development, conditions in the Mkomazi Catchment are simulated using the ACRU agrohydrological model. Management targets, based on the statistical analysis of pre-development streamflow regimes, are defined to assess the degree of hydrological alteration in the high information hydrological indices of the Mkomazi Catchment as a result of different societal activities. Hydrological alteration from predevelopment conditions is assessed using the Range of Variability Approach. The results indicate that the proposed framework is useful to the formulation of stakeholder-based catchment management plans. Applying hydrological records (either observed or simulated) as an ecological resource is highly appropriate for assessing the variability that ecosystems need to maintain the biodiversity, ecological functioning and resilience that people and society desire.
Water temperature and fish distribution in the Sabie River system : towards the development of an adaptive management tool.
(2003) Rivers-Moore, Nicholas Andrew.; Jewitt, Graham Paul Wyndham.
Water temperatures are a fundamental water quality component, and a key abiotic determinant of fish distribution patterns in rivers. A river 's thermal regime is the product of a multitude of thermal drivers and buffers interacting at different temporal and spatial scales, including, inter alia, air temperatures, flow volumes (including groundwater flows and lateral inputs from tributaries), channel geomorphology and riparian vegetation. "Healthy" river systems are self-sustaining, with adequate thermal variability to maintain biotic diversity. Temporal variability of flow volumes and water temperatures, and how these change along the longitudinal axis of a river, contribute towards a rivers "signature". Rivers that have had their signatures altered through anthropogenic impacts may no longer be sustainable, and require varying levels of management. Successful river management should include a quantification of these signatures , a definition of the "desired" state which management aims to achieve, associated "thresholds" of change or concern, and monitoring programmes. Such an approach requires flexibility and adaptability, as well as appropriate tools being available to natural resource managers. Indices, the utility of which are enhanced when included in predicative modelling systems, are a common means of assessing system variability and change. The degree of confidence placed in such tools depends on the level of fundamental science, and the degree of system understanding, underpinning them. This research contributes to the understanding of the ecological significance . of water temperatures in variable semi-arid river systems, using the Sabie River (Mpumalanga, South Africa) as a case study, and indices derived from biological indicators (Chiloglanis , Pisces: Mochokidae) to quantify the effects of cumulative changes in heat units against a hypothesised critical water temperature threshold. Hourly water temperatures for 20002002 collected at nine sites in the main rivers of the Sabie catchment, together with biannual surveys of relative abundances and community patterns of fish collected using standard electrofishing techniques, were used to provide the basis for a modelling system which aims to provide river managers with a tool for quantifying changes to the thermal regime of the Sabie River. This modelling system consisted of a suite of pragmatic models, including multiple linear regression models for simulating daily maximum water temperatures, and simple cause-and-effect relationships between biological indices (change In condition factor and change in the ratio of relative abundances of two species of Chiloglanis) and annual metrics of time-of-exposure to heat stress. It was concluded that changes in the thermal regimes of the rivers in the Sabie catchment are likely to lead to changes in fish distribution patterns, and a decline in river health. Inherent system variability suggests that management decisions will be made in the face considerable uncertainty. Indirect management of water temperatures may be possible through maintenance of flow volumes and flow variability. However, the most appropriate management approach for maintaining fish diversity within these rivers is to ensure that obstacles to fish migration are minimized, to maximise the ability of river biota to respond to thermal changes, by accessing suitable alternative habitats or refugia. Future research should focus on extending the time series of water temperatures from such river systems, and further understanding the drivers and buffers contributing to the thermal regimes of variable semi-arid river systems in South Africa. Additional testing of the validity of the hypothesized relationships between abiotic processes underpinning biotic patterns should be undertaken.
Characterisation of the hydrological processes and responses to rehabilitation of a headwater wetland of the Sand River, South Africa.
(2011) Riddell, Edward Sebastian.; Lorentz, Simon Antony.
The erosion of headwater wetlands in the Sand River catchment, in the lowveld of north-eastern South Africa has led to a focus on their rehabilitation, both for livelihood security for those that use them for subsistence agriculture, as well as for provision of streamflow regulation services for the Sand River itself. One such wetland, the Craigieburn-Manalana itself undergoing severe erosion was subject to technical rehabilitation using concrete weirs and gabion dams to stabilize the erosion gullies during 2007. Through a series of papers the research discussed in this thesis examined the response of the wetland?s hydrodynamics to the implementation of these measures. Through the installation of a network of hydrometric apparatus the research has shown that the wetlands hydrology is largely controlled by the presence of both horizontal and vertical clay aquicludes within a hydraulically conductive sandy matrix. The sequence of these aquicludes had allowed for artesian phreatic surface phenomena identified in a relatively hydrologically intact region of the wetland. The gully erosion had initiated hydraulic drawdown of the wetland?s water table leading to the desiccation of the system. The construction of a buttress weir within the erosion gully had restored the wetlands hydrodynamics to that typical of conditions upstream of a clay-plug. The research also explored the role that clay plays in terms of controlling the wetland?s hydro-geomorphic setting through geophysical analysis. A conceptual model was then derived that states that these wetlands are held in place by clay-plugs that form through clay illuviation from the hillslopes at regions of valley confinement. This has important implications for the connectivity of wetland process domains. The research also determined the inputs of surface and subsurface flows to the wetland and it was found through detailed examination of soil moisture responses and variably saturated soil physics modelling using the HYDRUS model, that the wetland is hydrologically connected to its contributing hillslope by threshold induced preferential flow pathways, via macropores, that only respond after specific antecedent soil moisture conditions are met. In addition, the thesis describes novel approaches to use information provided by soil scientists for the development of catchment hydrological models. It was shown that the use of this hydropedology information improved the low flow response function of the catchment model, ACRU. This development has important implications for up-scaling of catchment process domains, or hydrological response units by being able to generalize on hillslope hydrological responses based on configuration of their soil type elements. The research also undertook to examine the role that the wetlands play in catchment processes. It was found through water budgeting, supported by hydrological time-series, stable isotope analysis and the quantification of vegetation water use within the wetland and contributing catchment, that these wetlands do not augment baseflows during the dry season. Furthermore, it is only early on during the wet season that these systems may attenuate peak flows, thereafter they act as conduits for high storm flows. Similarities emanated from this research with previous hydrological studies of headwater wetland systems in southern Africa and these are discussed.
Performance of irrigation and water management systems in the lowveld of Zimbabwe.
(2004) Lecler, Neil Louis.; Schulze, Roland Edgar.
In order to assess the performance of water management approaches and irrigation systems used by the sugar industry in the Lowveld of Zimbabwe, a sugarcane yield and irrigation systems simulation model was developed. The model, named ZIMsched 2.0, was used to predict how field derived indices of irrigation systems performance, such as the coefficient of uniformity, CV, impacted on estimated recoverable crystal, ERC, yields and the water balance. This was done across a range of soil conditions, seasonal climates, irrigation system types and existing and refined irrigation scheduling strategies. Results of a verification study of the model showed an index of agreement, 'd', equal to 0.96 and a Pearson's correlation coefficient equal to 0.94, between observed and simulated yields of ERC, relative to a reference treatment. Application of the model showed the actual and also the potential performance of the different irrigation system hardware. Additional applications of the tools and information which were developed as a result of this research included an integrated economic assessment of peak irrigation system design specifications and associated deficit irrigation watering strategies. In an effort to translate theoretical water savings into practical realities a range of novel water management tools was also developed. Most of the drip irrigation systems in the Lowveld were performing below potential due to excessive infield variations in applied water. The performance of furrow irrigation systems was limited by the large variations in water applied to individual furrows, and water applications that were, on average, excessively high relative to soil water holding characteristics. Simulations showed that sub-surface drip irrigation systems have a slight edge on other irrigation systems in terms of potential efficiency. Average water savings for drip irrigation systems ranged from approximately 2.2 to 1.5 Ml/ha relative to floppy irrigation systems, and 3.5 to 2.3 Ml/ha relative to typical furrow irrigation systems, depending on how water applications were scheduled. A major finding was that there was potential for the Lowveld sugar industry to use up to 30% less water per hectare on an annual basis if ZIMsched, a specialist spreadsheet-based irrigation scheduling tool developed during the course of the project, was used to derive more appropriate and system specific water management guidelines. However, simulations showed that with the more precise irrigation scheduling there could be a slight crop yield penalty when the distribution uniformity of applied water was poor.
Assessment of the water poverty index at meso-catchment scale in the Thukela Basin.
(2006) Dlamini, Dennis Jabulani Mduduzi.; Schulze, Roland Edgar.
The connection between water and human wellbeing is increasingly causing concern about the implications of water scarcity on poverty. The primary fear is that water scarcity may not only worsen poverty, but may also undermine efforts to alleviate poverty and food insecurity. A review of literature revealed that the relationship between water scarcity and poverty is a complex one, with water scarcity being both a cause and consequence of poverty. Furthermore, water scarcity is multidimensional, which makes it difficult to define, while it can also vary considerably, both temporally and spatially. Finally, the relationship between water scarcity and poverty is a difficult one to quantify. Within the context of water scarcity, indicators are viewed by many development analysts as appropriate tools for informing and orienting policy-making, for comparing situations and for measuring performance. However, simplistic traditional indicators cannot capture the complexity of the water-poverty link; hence a proliferation of more sophisticated indicators and indices since the early 1990s. The Water Poverty Index (WPI), one of these new indices, assesses water scarcity holistically. Water poverty derives from the conceptualisation of this index which relates dimensions of poverty to access to water for domestic and productive use. However, the WPI has not been applied extensively at meso-catchment scale, the scale at which water resources managers operate. In South Africa, the Thukela Catchment -in the province of KwaZulu-Natal presents a unique opportunity to assess the WPI at this scale. The Thukela is a diverse catchment with respect to physiography, climate and (by extension) natural vegetation, land use, demography, culture and economy. While parts of the catchment are suitable for intensive agricultural production and others are thriving economic centres, a large percentage of the population in the catchment lives in poverty in high risk ecosystems, with their vulnerability exacerbated by policies of the erstwhile apartheid government. Many rural communities, a high percentage of which occupy these naturally harsh areas, have low skills levels, with a high proportion of unemployed people, low or no income and low services delivery. Infrastructural development, which relates to municipal service delivery, is often made prohibitively expensive by the rugged terrain in which many people live. As in other catchments in South Africa, the Thukela is affected by policies and initiatives aimed at accomplishing the objectives of post-1994 legislation such as the South Africa Constitution and the National Water Act. The potential of the WPI to assess the impacts of these initiatives on human wellbeing and to inform decision .making in the Thukela catchment was investigated. An analysis of a 46 year long series of monthly summations of daily values of streamflows output by the ACRU agrohydrological simulation model has shown that the Thukela, in its entirety , is a water-rich catchment. The reliability of the streamflows, which has implications for communities who collect water directly from 1 streams, is high along main channels but can be considerably less along low order tributaries of the main streams. The flow reliability along the small tributaries is less in winter than in summer. A high percentage of the catchment's population, in addition to being poor and not having access to municipal services, live near, and rely on, the small tributaries for their water supplies. Admittedly, this analysis addresses only one dimension of water poverty, viz. physical water shortage. Nevertheless, the study revealed that despite the Thukela's being a water-rich catchment, many communities are still water stressed. A more holistic characterisation of the water scarcity situation in the Thukela catchment was achieved using the WPI. A review of possible information sources for computing the WPI in South Africa found that many monitoring programmes, information systems and databases are either in existence and are active, or being restructured, or are under different stages of development. If and when they are all fully functional , they should be able to support national assessments of the WPI at meso-scale without the need to collect additional information. A combination of information from some of the active databases and secondary data from other local studies was used to compute the WPI in the Thukela catchment. The assessment uncovered the following: • There is an apparent association between water poverty and socio-economic disadvantage in the Thukela catchment. • There was an improvement in the water poverty situation in most parts of the Thukela catchment between 1996 and 2001, although the degree of improvement varied from subcatchment to subcatchment. Climate change, if it manifests itself by higher temperatures and reduced rainfall, will most likely worsen water poverty throughout the Thukela catchment, with the subcatchments in which many of the poor communities are located being more likely to experience the most severe impacts as the coping capacities of those communities are already strained under current climatic conditions. The findings of this study illustrate the potential of WPI as a tool for informing decision making and policy evaluation at the meso-catchment scale at which many water-related decisions are made.
Assessment of agro-ecosystem sustainability across varying scales in South Africa.
(2005) Walker, Nicholas James.; Schulze, Roland Edgar.
Maize production plays an important socio-economic role in rural communities of the Highveld region of South Africa, yet it is becoming increasingly difficult to produce maize economically with current agricultural policy conditions and existing management systems. This has direct socio-economic impacts for both commercial farmer and small-scale farmer. Sustainable commercial maize production is not only a question of yields, but also of protection of the environmental resource base, social welfare, and the livelihoods of farmers per se as well as the surrounding rural and urban communities. Sustainability for the small-scale farmer, on the other hand raises questions of equity, economic viability and household food security. Therefore, information is required to ascertain whether an existing agro-ecosystem can be identified as sustainable, and what facets of that system make it sustainable or unsustainable. To begin to answer these key questions it is important to state, and to some extent attempt to standardise, the definitions of agricultural sustainability. Agro-ecosystem sustainability with regard to maize production was assessed at the regional scale of the Highveld of South Africa as well as at, the Quaternary Catchment scale and the smallholder farm scale. Von Wiren-Lehr's (2001) goal orientated system was considered an appropriate and practical system by which agro-ecosystem sustainability across a range of scales could be investigated. At the regional scale, optimum management strategies for each of the 497 Quaternary Catchments in the Highveld region were devised, based on present climatic conditions and using an index which was based on mean yields and yield variability. Economic returns and their impact on sustainability were then also assessed under plausible future climate scenarios. At the Quaternary Catchment scales optimum management strategies were ascertained by using a sustainability index. These strategies were then modelled under present and plausible future climate scenarios. The results from the sustainability modelling showed that a maize crop will benefit, especially with respect to mean grain yields, from an effective doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, this benefit can be counteracted when there is a concurrent increase in temperature, particularly of 2°C or more. At the smallholder scale, a range of management options was assessed. These options included several types of tillage practices in combination with applications of either inorganic fertiliser or manure. The management strategies were modelled under present climate conditions and under plausible climate change scenarios for southern Africa. The conventional tillage type (disc) was ranked highest under most of the climatic conditions modelled, including present climate conditions. This was in contrast to actual yields from smallholder farmers (-1 ha field size) in the Potshini area, near Bergville in the KwaZuluNatal province of South Africa, who have experienced an increase in yield when conservation tillage practices have been used on their land (Smith et al., 2004). The sustainability of agro-ecosystems depends on the maintenance of the economic, biophysical and social components that make up the system (Belcher et al., 2004). The modelling performed for the Highveld region built on previous work and for the first time incorporated daily temperatures and ISCW soil information into CERES-Maize. The intention was to incorporate other agro-ecosystem functions, as well as yield, into the sustainability assessment. Only limited research has previously been carried out in South Africa with respect to modelling smallholder agro-ecosystems and sustainability. This research sought to model the smallholder system along with the impacts that climate change would have on sustainability and associated food security.
Refinement of modelling tools to assess potential agrohydrological impacts of climate change in southern Africa.
(2001) Perks, Lucille Annalise.; Schulze, Roland Edgar.
Changes in climate due to anthropogenic influences are expected to affect both hydrological and agricultural systems in southern Africa. Studies on the potential impacts of climate change on agrohydrological systems had been performed previously in the School of Bioresources Engineering and Environmental Hydrology (School of BEEH). However, refinement of these modelling tools and restructuring of the databases used was needed to enable more realistic and dynamic simulations of the impacts of changes in climate. Furthermore, it was realised that modifications and linkages of various routines would result in a faster processing time to perform climate impact assessments at the catchment scale. Baseline ("present") climatic information for this study was obtained from the School of BEEH's database. Scenarios of future climate were obtained from six General Circulation Models (GCMs). Output from the five GCMs which provided monthly climate output was used in the climate impact assessments carried out. Potential changes in variability of rainfall resulting from climate change was assessed using the daily climate output from the sixth GCM. As the spatial resolution of the climatic output from these GCMs was too coarse for use in climate impact studies the GCM output was interpolated to a finer spatial resolution. To assess the potential impact of climate change on water resources in southern Africa the ACRU hydrological modelling system was selected. The ACRU model was, however, initially modified and updated to enable more dynamic simulation of climate change. In previous hydrological studies of climate change in southern Africa Quaternary Catchments were modelled as individual, isolated catchments. To determine the potential impact of changes in climate on accumulated flows in large catchments the configuration of the Quaternary Catchments needed to be determined and this configuration used in ACRU. The changes in hydrological responses were calculated both as absolute differences between future and present values and the ratio offuture hydrological response to the present response. The large degree of uncertainty between the GCMs was reflected in the wide range of results obtained for the water resources component of this study. In addition to the climate impact studies, sensitivity and threshold studies were performed using ACRU to assess the vulnerability of regions to changes in climate. Potential change in the yields and distributions of parameters important to agriculture, such as heat units, crops, pastures and commercial tree species were assessed using simple crop models at a quarter ofdegree latitude / longitude scale. Most species were simulated to show decreases in yields and climatically suitable areas. There are many sources of uncertainties when performing climate impact assessments and the origins of these uncertainties were investigated. Lastly, potential adaptation strategies for southern Africa considering the results obtained are presented.
Development and evaluation of model-based operational yield forecasts in the South African sugar industry.
(2005) Bezuidenhout, Carel Nicolaas.; Schulze, Roland Edgar.
South Africa is the largest producer of sugar in Africa and one of the ten largest sugarcane producers in the world. Sugarcane in South Africa is grown under a wide range of agro-climatic conditions. Climate has been identified as the single most important factor influencing sugarcane production in South Africa. Traditionally, sugarcane mill committees have issued forecasts of anticipated production for a region. However, owing to several limitations of such committee forecasts, more advanced technologies have had to be considered. The aim of this study has been to develop, evaluate and implement a pertinent and technologically advanced operational sugarcane yield forecasting system for South Africa. Specific objectives have included literature and technology reviews, surveys of stakeholder requirements, the development and evaluation of a forecasting system and the assessment of information transfer and user adoption. A crop yield model-based system has been developed to simulate representative crops for derived Homogeneous Climate Zones (HCZ). The system has integrated climate data and crop management, soil, irrigation and seasonal rainfall outlook information. Simulations of yields were aggregated from HCZs to mill supply area and industry scales and were compared with actual production. The value of climate information (including climate station networks) and seasonal rainfall outlook information were quantified independently. It was concluded that the system was capable of forecasting yields with acceptable accuracy over a wide range of agro-climatic conditions in South Africa. At an industry scale, the system captured up to 58% of the climatically driven variability in mean annual sugarcane yields. Forecast accuracies differed widely between different mill supply areas, and several factors were identified that may explain some inconsistencies. Seasonal rainfall outlook information generally enhanced forecasts of sugarcane production. Rainfall outlooks issued during the summer months seemed more valuable than those issued in early spring. Operationally, model-based forecasts can be expected to be valuable prior to the commencement of the milling season in April. Current limitations of forecasts include system calibration, the expression of production relative to that of the previous season and the omission of incorporating near real-time production and climate information. Several refinements to the forecast system are proposed and a strong collaborative approach between modellers, climatologists, mill committees and other decision makers is encouraged.
An assessment of canopy and litter interception in commercial and indigenous forests in the KwaZulu-Natal Midlands, South Africa.
(2011) Bulcock, Hartley Hugh.; Jewitt, Graham Paul Wyndham.
Understanding of the hydrological cycle and processes such as interception span as far back as the times of the Renaissance, when Leonardo da Vinci (1452-1519) first described it. However, there remains a gap in the knowledge of both canopy and litter interception in South African forest hydrology. Interception is typically considered to constitute only a small portion of total evaporation and in some models is disregarded or merely lumped with total evaporation, and not considered as a separate process. Interception is a threshold process, as a certain amount of water is required before successive processes such as infiltration and runoff can take place. Therefore an error introduced in modelling interception, especially disregarding it, will automatically introduce errors in the calibration of subsequent models/processes. In this study, field experiments to assess these two poorly understood hydrological processes, viz. canopy and litter interception were established for the three main commercial forestry genera in South Africa, namely, Pinus, Acacia and Eucalyptus as well as an indigenous Podocarpus henkelii stand, thus, accounting for interception of “broad leaf”, “compound leaf” and “needle leaf” trees in order to provide further insight into these processes. The study took place at two locations in the KwaZulu-Natal Midlands over a period of three years. The first site is the Two Streams catchment, located in the Seven Oaks area, about 70km north-east of Pietermaritzburg where the study on the commercial plantation species took place. The second site was the Podocarpus henkelii stand in Karkloof near Howick, 40km north of Pietermaritzburg. From the field data collected (cf. Chapter 2) it was observed that canopy storage capacity, an important parameter governing interception, was not constant and changed with rainfall intensity, with lower intensity events resulting in a higher storage capacity. Building on these findings, a physically based canopy interception model that is based on the well known Gash model was developed, and is referred to herein as the “variable storage Gash model”. While canopy interception is dependent on many factors including the storage capacity, potential evaporation, rainfall intensity and rainfall duration, the litter interception is largely dependent on the storage capacity due to the evaporative drivers under the canopy such as radiation, temperature and wind speed being moderated by the above canopy. From these finding, a litter interception model based on idealised drying curves from litter samples collected at the study sites was also developed (cf. Chapter 3). From the field data, it was found that the canopy interception for Eucalyptus grandis, Acacia mearnsii and Pinus patula was 14.9, 27.7 and 21.4% of mean annual precipitation (MAP) respectively. The simulated canopy interception using the “variable storage Gash model” was 16.9%, 26.6% and 23.3% for E. grandis, A. mearnsii and P. patula respectively. The litter interception measured for E. grandis, A. mearnsii and P. patula was found to be 8.5, 6.6 and 12.1% of MAP respectively, while the simulated litter interception using the idealised drying curve model corresponded well with the measured results and were 10.1%, 5.4% and 13.4% for E. grandis, A. mearnsii and P. patula respectively. The idealised drying curve model is site and species specific and is therefore not transferable to other locations. Conversely, the “variable storage Gash model” is transferable as it is not site and species specific, and relies on readily measureable and available information. Building on field studies, this was then used to simulate the canopy interception for Eucalyptus, Acacia mearnsii and Pinus in South Africa (including Lesotho and Swaziland) for all quinary catchments in which commercial forestry could be grown, i.e. a mean annual precipitation of greater than 600 mm.year-1 (cf. Chapter 4). It was found that, depending on the location and genus, canopy interception loss can be as high as 100 to 300 mm per year or approximately 10% to 40% of MAP. This relates to a mean interception loss of between 1.0 and 3.0 mm per rainday, highlighting the spatial variability of canopy interception. To further investigate the spatial variability of canopy interception, at various spatial scales, remote sensing technology was applied to estimate leaf area index (LAI) for use in modelling/estimating canopy storage capacity and canopy interception (cf. Chapter 6). The NDVI, SAVI and Vogelmann 1 vegetation indices were used in the estimation of the LAI. It was found the Vogelmann 1 index produced the best results. As models to estimate canopy interception typically require LAI and storage capacity, it was calculated that the ability to estimate these parameters over large areas is valuable for water resources managers and planners. An often neglected consideration of canopy and litter interception is its role in determining the water use efficiency (WUE) of a forest stand (cf. Chapter 5). This component of the study was undertaken in an indigenous Podocarpus henkelii stand as well as a commercial Pinus patula stand in Karkloof in the KwaZulu-Natal Midlands. The sap flow (transpiration) was measured in both the P. henkelii and P. patula stands using the using the Heat Pulse Velocity (HPV) technique in order to determine the productive green water use. The canopy and litter interception was measured in the P. henkelii site, but was modelled in the P. patula site using the “variable storage Gash” and idealised drying curve models, in order to estimate the non-productive green water use. It was found that the canopy and litter interception for P. henkelii was 29.8% and 6.2% respectively, while the modelled canopy and litter interception for P. patula was 22.1% and 10.7% respectively. If only the productive green water use (transpiration) is considered, then the water use efficiency of P. henkelii and P. patula was found to be 7.14 g.mm-1 and 25.21 g.mm-1 respectively. However, from a water management perspective it is important to consider the total green water use efficiency (transpiration + interception), which reveals a significantly lower water use efficiency of 3.8 g.mm-1 and 18.8 g.mm-1 for P. henkelii and P. patula respectively. To extend the study to a globally relavent issue, the possible impact of climate change on canopy interception was investigated, as forests growth is critically linked to climate (cf. Chapter 7). To achieve this, the CABALA model was used to model LAI and transpiration of Eucalyptus grandis and Pinus patula under 9 different climate change scenarios, including changes in temperature, rainfall and atmospheric CO2. The simulated LAI values from the CABALA model for all 9 climate scenarios were then used to simulate canopy interception using the “variable storage Gash model”. Results show that LAI may increase by as much as 24% and transpiration may decrease by as much as 13%, depending on the scenario, location and tree species. However, it was found that canopy interception does not change greatly, leading to the conclusion that under climate change conditions, canopy interception may not become a more dominant component of the hydrological cycle than it currently is as the changes under climate change are likely to be less than the natural variability from year to year. However, canopy interception remains an important consideration for water resources management and planning both currently and in the future.
Integrating hydro-climatic hazards and climate changes as a tool for adaptive water resources management in the Orange River Catchment.
(2012) Knoesen, Darryn Marc.; Schulze, Roland Edgar.; Smithers, Jeffrey Colin.
The world’s freshwater resources are being placed under increasing pressure owing to growth in population, economic development, improved standards of living, agricultural intensification (linked mainly to irrigation), pollution and mismanagement of available freshwater resources. Already, in many parts of the Orange River Catchment, water availability has reached a critical stage. It has become increasingly evident that water related problems can no longer be resolved by water managers alone, owing to the problems becoming more interconnected with other development related issues, as well as with social, economic, environmental, legal and political factors. With the advent of climate change and the likelihood of increases in extreme events, water managers’ awareness of uncertainties and critical reflections on the adequacy of current management approaches is increasing. In order to manage water resources effectively a more holistic approach is required than has hitherto been the case, in which technological, social and economic development are linked with the protection of natural ecosystems and with dependable projections of future climatic conditions. To assess the climate risk connected with rural and urban water management, and to develop adaptive strategies that can respond to an increasingly variable climate that is projected into the future and help to reduce adverse impacts, it is necessary to make connections between climate related hazards, climate forecasts as well as climate change, and the planning, design, operation, maintenance, and rehabilitation of water related infrastructure. Therefore, adaptive water resources management (AWRM), which in essence is “learning by doing”, is believed to be a timely extension of the integrated water resources management (IWRM) approach as it acknowledges uncertainty and is flexible in that it allows for the adjustment of actions based on information learned about the system. Furthermore, it is suggested that climate risk management be imbedded within the AWRM framework. The objective of the research presented in this thesis is to develop techniques to integrate state-of-the-art climate projection scenarios – which forms part of the first step of the adaptive management cycle – downscaled to the regional/local scale, with hydro-climatic hazard determination – which forms part of the first step in the risk management process – in order to simulate projected impacts of climate change on hydro-climatic hazards in the Orange River Catchment (defined in this study as those areas of the catchment that exist within South Africa and Lesotho). The techniques developed and the results presented in this study can be used by decision-makers in the water sector in order to make informed proactive decisions as a response to projected future impacts of hydro-climatic hazards – all within a framework of AWRM. Steps towards fulfilling the above-mentioned objective begins by way of a comprehensive literature review; firstly of the study area, where it is identified that the Orange River Catchment is, in hydro-climatic terms, already a high risk environment; and secondly, of the relevant concepts involved which are, for this specific study, those pertaining to climate change, and the associated potential hydro-climatic impacts. These include risk management and its components, in order identify how hazard identification fits into the broader concept of risk management; and water resources management practices, in order to place the issues identified above within the context of AWRM. This study uses future projections of climate from five General Circulation Models, all using the SRES A2 emission scenario. By and large, however, where techniques developed in this study are demonstrated, this is done using the projections from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM GCM which, relative to the other four available GCMs, is considered to provide “middle of the road” projections of future climates over southern Africa. These climate projections are used in conjunction with the locally developed and widely verified ACRU hydrological model, as well as a newly developed hydro-climatic database at a finer spatial resolution than was available before, to make projections regarding the likelihood and severity of hydro-climatic hazards that may occur in the Orange River Catchment. The impacts of climate change on hydro-climatic hazards, viz. design rainfalls, design floods, droughts and sediment yields are investigated, with the results including a quantitative uncertainty analysis, by way of an index of concurrence from multiple GCM projections, for each of the respective analyses. A new methodology for the calculation of short duration (< 24 hour) design rainfalls from daily GCM rainfall projections is developed in this study. The methodology utilises an index storm approach and is based on L-moments, allowing for short duration design rainfalls to be estimated at any location in South Africa for which daily GCM rainfall projections exist. The results from the five GCMs used in this study indicate the following possible impacts of climate change on hydro-climatic hazards in the Orange River Catchment: · Design rainfalls of both short and long duration are, by and large, projected to increase by the intermediate future period represented by 2046 - 2065, and even more so by the more distant future period 2081 - 2100. · Design floods are, by and large, projected to increase into the intermediate future, and even more into the more distant future; with these increases being larger than those projected for design rainfalls. · Both meteorological and hydrological droughts are projected to decrease, both in terms of magnitude and frequency, by the period 2046 - 2065, with further decreases projected for the period 2081 - 2100. Where increases in meteorological and hydrological droughts are projected to occur, these are most likely to be in the western, drier regions of the catchment. · Annual sediment yields, as well as their year-to-year variability, are projected to increase by the period 2046 - 2065, and even more so by the period 2081 - 2100. These increases are most likely to occur in the higher rainfall, and especially in the steeper, regions in the east of the catchment. Additionally, with respect to the above-mentioned hydro-climatic hazards, it was found that: · The statistic chosen to describe inter-annual variability of hydro-climatic variables may create different perceptions of the projected future hydroclimatic environment and, hence, whether or not the water manager would decide whether adaptive action is necessary to manage future variability. · There is greater uncertainty amongst the GCMs used in this study when estimating design events (rainfall and streamflow) for shorter durations and longer return periods, indicating that GCMs may still be failing to simulate individual extreme events. · The spatial distribution of projected changes in meteorological and hydrological droughts are different, owing to the complexities introduced by the hydrological system · Many areas may be exposed to increases in hydrological hazards (i.e. hydrological drought, floods and/or sediment yields) because, where one extreme is projected to decrease, one of the others is often projected to increase. The thesis is concluded with recommendations for future research in the climate change and hydrological fields, based on the experiences gained in undertaking this study.
Challenges in modelling hydrological responses to impacts and interactions of land use and climate change.
(2012) Warburton, Michele Lynn.; Schulze, Roland Edgar.; Jewitt, Graham Paul Wyndham.
To meet society’s needs for water, food, fuel and fibre the natural land cover throughout the world has been extensively altered. These alterations have impacted on hydrological responses and thus on available water resources, as the hydrological responses of a catchment are dependent upon, and sensitive to, changes in the land use. Similarly, changes in the climate through enhanced carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere have resulted in increased temperature and altered precipitation patterns that alter hydrological responses. In combination, land use change and global climate change form a complex and interactive system, whereby both human influences and climate change manipulate land use patterns, and changes in land uses feed back to influence the climate system, with both impacting on hydrological responses. Relatively few studies have been undertaken examining the combined impacts of climate change and land use change on water resources, with no consensus emerging as yet as to combined influence of land use change and climate change on hydrological responses and the role of geographical characteristics in determining the overriding influence. There is, however, agreement that the effect on hydrological responses will be amplified. Given that South Africa is currently water stressed and considered to be highly exposed to climate change impacts, an understanding of hydrological responses to the complex interactions between land use and climate change is crucial to allow for improved integration of land use planning in conjunction with climate change adaptation into water resources management. To determine the sensitivity of land use to changing climate, a sensitivity study assessing the potential impacts of climate change on the areas climatically suitable for key plantation forestry species was undertaken. Under sensitivity scenarios of climate change the climatically optimum areas for specific forest species were shown to shift, with optimum areas changing in extent and location between and within South Africa’s provinces. With potential for shifts in land use due to climate change shown, the imperative to improve understanding of the dynamics between land use and climate change as well as the subsequent impacts on hydrological responses was further established. For the assessment of climate-land use-water interactions, a process-based hydrological model, sensitive to land use and climate, and changes thereof, viz. the daily time step ACRU model was selected. In order to increase the confidence in results from the model in a study such as this, its representation of reality was confirmed by comparing simulated streamflow output against observations across a range of climatic conditions and land uses. This comparison was undertaken in the three diverse South African catchments chosen for the study, viz. the semi-arid, sub-tropical Luvuvhu catchment in the north of the country, which has a large proportion of subsistence agriculture and informal residential areas, the Upper Breede catchment in the winter rainfall regions of the south, where the primary land uses are commercial orchards and vineyards, and the sub-humid Mgeni catchment along the eastern seaboard, where plantation forestry is dominant in the upper reaches, commercial plantation sugarcane and urban areas in the middle reaches, and urban areas dominate the lower reaches. Thus, in effect a space for time study was undertaken, thereby reducing the uncertainty of the model’s ability to cope with the projected future climate scenarios. Overall the ACRU model was able to represent the high, low and total flows, and thus it was concluded that the model could be used with confidence to simulate the streamflows of the three selected catchments and was able to represent the hydrological responses from the range of climates and diversity of land uses present within the catchments. With the suitability of the model established for the theme of this research, the understanding of the complex interactions between hydrological responses and land use could be improved. The hydrological responses of the three selected catchments to land use change were varied. Results showed that the location of specific land uses within a catchment plays an important role in the response of the streamflow of the catchment to that land use change. Furthermore, it was shown that the contributions of different land uses to the streamflow generated from a catchment are not proportional to the relative area of those land uses, and the relative contribution of the land use to the catchment streamflow varies with the annual rainfall of the catchment. With an improved understanding of the dynamics between land uses and hydrological responses, the impacts of climate change on hydrological responses were assessed prior to analysing the combined impacts on land use and climate change. Five plausible climate projections from three coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models covering three SRES emissions scenarios which were downscaled with the RCA3 regional climate model and adjusted using the distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach for bias correction were used as climate input to the ACRU model, with future projections applied to a baseline land cover scenario compared to historical climate applied to the same baseline land cover scenario. No consistent direction of change in the streamflow responses was evident in the Mgeni and Luvuvhu catchments. However, decreases in streamflow responses were evident for all five scenarios for the Upper Breede. With an understanding of the separate impacts of land use and climate change on hydrological responses, an analysis of the combined impacts was undertaken to determine which changes were projected to be of greater importance in different geographical locations. Results indicated that the drier the climate becomes, the relatively more significant the role of land use becomes, as its impact becomes relatively greater. The impacts of combined land use and climate change on the catchments’ streamflow responses varied across both the temporal and spatial scales, with the nature of the land use and the magnitude of the projected climate change having significant impacts on the streamflow responses. From the research undertaken, the key results were • that the climatic variable to which plantation forestry species are most sensitive is rainfall; • that optimum growth areas for plantation forestry are projected to shift under changing climates, having a potentially significant impact on the landscape and thus on the hydrological responses from the landscape; • that the daily time-step, physical-conceptual and process-based ACRU model is appropriate for use in land use change and climatic change impact studies as shown through a space for time study; • that the contributions of different land uses to the streamflow generated from a catchment is not proportional to the relative area of that land use and that, as the mean annual precipitation of a subcatchment decreases, so the disparities between the relative areas a land use occupies and its contribution to catchment streamflow increases; • that specific land use changes have a greater impact on different components of the hydrological response of a catchment; • that land uses which currently have significant impacts on catchment water resources will place proportionally greater impacts on the catchment’s water resources if the climate were to become drier; thus the drier the climate becomes, the more relatively significant the role of land use becomes; • that when considering any hydrological impacts of land use change, climate change or combined land use and climate change, assessments need to consider the scale where the localized impacts may be evident, the progression of the impacts as the streamflow cascades through the catchment, as well as the impacts at the whole catchment scale where the accumulation of the effects through the catchment are evident; and lastly • that each catchment is unique with its own complexities, feed forwards and feedbacks, thus each catchment will have a unique threshold as to where land use change or climate change begins to have a significant influence of the hydrological response. Given these complex interactions between land use, climate and water, there is a growing imperative to improve the understanding of the movement of water within catchments, to be receptive and adaptive to new concepts and information, and to developing resilient and adaptive water management strategies for the future in a way that minimises the risks and maximises the benefits to potential impacts of climate change.
Transient pressure waves in hillslopes.
(2013) Waswa, George W.; Lorentz, Simon Antony.; Le Roux, Pieter A. L.
Previous studies found that during a rainfall event, pre-event water, which exists in the catchment before the event, may appear in significant amounts in the stream stormflow hydrograph. Pre-event water is predominantly groundwater. Among the mechanisms that have been proposed to explain the rapid mobilization of pre-event water from hillslopes are: (1) groundwater ridging (GWR) i.e. the rapid rise of a water table in environments, where the capillary fringe, or the zone of tension saturation, is very close to the ground surface and (2) the Lisse Effect (LE) i.e. the rapid response of a groundwater level to pressurized pore air in the unsaturated zone. Published literature explains that GWR is caused by the application of a small amount of water on the ground surface. On the LE, it is explained that pressurized pore air acts at the water table, resulting in a rapid rise of the water level in a well, screened below the water table. These explanations are insufficient on the physical processes involved in GWR and the LE. The objectives of this study were: (1) to use the commonly observed catchment hydrological processes i.e. tensiometric pore water pressure, shallow groundwater levels, rainfall data and the hydraulic properties of soils, to quantify and describe the physical processes involved in GWR and the LE mechanisms; (2) to perform laboratory experiments, in order to understand the physical processes involved in the LE; and (3) to develop a mathematical theory that can describe the physical processes in the LE. Results indicated that GWR and the LE are caused by the addition (elevation) of potential energy in water within the capillary fringe. In GWR, the additional energy is from the intense rainfall. In the LE, the additional energy is from compressed pore air in the unsaturated zone. In both mechanisms, the added energy diffuses through the capillary fringe, as a downward pressure wave, releasing the tension forces in water. As soon as the downward pressure wave-front arrives at the water table, the water table begins to ascend, as an upward pressure wave. The ascending water table steepens the hydraulic gradient, which results in the rapid groundwater fluxes, without the recharge of the water table by the infiltration profile.
Ground and satellite-based assessment of hydrological responses to land cover change in the Kilombero River Basin, Tanzania.
(2013) Munishi-Kongo, Subira.; Jewitt, Graham Paul Wyndham.
Changes in land use and land cover are a global issue of concern, especially with regard to possible impacts on biophysical processes which affect the hydrological functioning of a system. Tanzania is no exception to this concern. This study, therefore, addresses the implications of land use alterations on the hydrodynamics of the Kilombero River Basin, specifically with regard to the Kilombero Valley’s wetlands and water resources, which have been altered and exploited to a great extent. As its starting point, the study embarked on mapping the current land cover in the Kilombero Basin and the quantification of the historical changes. The study revealed significant changes and, in recent years, increased rates of clearing natural vegetation cover and conversion to agricultural land. The most affected area of the Basin was the Kilombero Valley, a Ramsar Site and formerly extensively inhabited by wildlife, but which now has 62% of its area converted into agricultural and/or human settlements. In line with this observation, the study used two approaches for the impact analysis, a regional scale and a local scale approach. Plant physiology, soil moisture and micro-meteorological measurements were undertaken to quantify the impact of land cover change at local scale. Sensing techniques were then applied to assess the spatial extent of the changes and the basin scale (regional) impact thereof. Investigation of hydrological processes at a local scale placed emphasis on the implications of forest conversion from indigenous Miombo woodland to exotic Teak (Tectona grandis) forests. Field measurements showed the distinctive nature of Teak trees consumptive water use, both in quantity as well as in regard to the seasonal variation as compared to the native Miombo woodland forests. Teak was found to have higher transpiration rates, both during the rainy season (where the rates were approximately 10-fold higher than that of Miombo) and the period immediately after the cessation of rainfall, with consumptive water use rates being four-fold higher than that of Miombo. This contrast in water use was further observed in the measured soil water fluxes which evidenced a large difference in the components of the soil water balance. Less recharge was observed in the Teak forests suggesting significant impacts on the replenishment of groundwater resources in the study area. Assessment of the basin scale impacts of the land cover changes on the evapotranspiration (ET) regime was undertaken using the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) remote sensing model. Validation was provided by the Teak field sites and through the monitoring of ET from sugar cane using a Large Aperture Scintillometer (LAS). Results suggest a decrease in ET during the dry season. There is a clear transition of ET that follows the land cover transition from the natural and more adaptable vegetation, to rain-fed dependent crops and bare lands, where minimal ET is observed during the dry season. Similar seasonal leafing, and therefore a similar ET pattern, is observed with the conversion of natural forests to deciduous plantation forests. Irrigated crops, on the other hand, were found to have persistently higher ET throughout the year regardless of rainfall variability. This implies that land cover change in the Kilombera Valley is resulting in higher water use and less recharge in the wet season and a correspondingly lower ET (and possibly lower river flow) in the dry season than would occur under natural conditions. This research provides valuable information relevant to all stakeholders in the Kilombero River Basin (i.e. both smallholders and commercial sugarcane farmers, the forestry industry, Basin Water Authorities etc.). This information will help to inform decision-making around the sustainable management of the water resources in the Kilombero Valley for food security as well as for sustaining livelihoods and ecosystems.
Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change into decision making in the water sector : concepts and case studies from South Africa.
(2015) Stuart-Hill, Sabine Ingrid.; Pahl-Wostl, Claudia.; Schulze, Roland Edgar.
Abstract available in Pdf file.
Quantification of the water-use dynamics of the dominant plant communities of the Eastern Shores in the iSimangaliso Wetland Park for improved water resource management.
(2015) Clulow, Alistair David.; Everson, Colin Stuart.; Price, Jonathan.; Jewitt, Graham Paul Wyndham.
No abstract available.
Estimation of catchment response time in medium to large catchment in South Africa.
Gericke, Ockert Jacobus.; Smithers, Jeffrey Colin.
Abstract and extended abstract available in the print copy.

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