Predicted and measured arrival rates of meteors over forward-scatter links.
Investigations into currently accepted methods of modelling variations in the arrival rate of meteors over forward-scatter meteor links have revealed some shortcomings. In these investigations, particular emphasis is placed on the work of Rudie due to its current acceptance in the literature. The non-uniform radiant distribution of meteors measured by Davies and modelled by Rudie, is critically examined and predictions using these models are compared with measured results taken over two forward-scatter links in the Southern Hemisphere. A new, alternative method of including the effect of non-uniform radiant distributions on the predicted arrival rate of meteors is given. The method used by Rudie to model Davies' measured radiant distribution is shown to be unnecessarily complicated and a simpler alternative is given. Furthermore, Rudie's distribution is shown not to be derived from a particular set of Davies' results as implied by Rudie. Other non-uniform distributions of meteors are also investigated. Comparisons between monthly-averaged daily cycles of measured and predicted arrival rates of meteors for a midpath and an endpath meteor link are used to reveal the validity and limitations of the published distributions. A new graphical method is used to aid in determining the validity and limitations of the non-uniform distributions. Discrepancies in the published predicted and measured annual variations in the arrival rate of meteors are investigated. Contrary to recently published information, predicted annual variations in the arrival rate of meteors for meteor radiants close to the ecliptic are shown to be comparable to measured results.