Scenario planning for future of cinema exhibition in South Africa.

Abstract

The cinema exhibition industry in South Africa is experiencing stagnant cinema attendances. The strategic planning approaches being utilized by management in this industry currently are not fully encompassing of the width and breadth of the challenges and opportunities inherent in this industry and have been unable to solve the problem of stagnant cinema attendances. The study used a combination of recent, innovative approaches to scenario planning as a strategic planning tool, along with quantitative research to determine the perceptions of industry professionals in order to chart a course for the future of the cinema exhibition industry in South Africa The major conclusions in this paper are that scenario planning can be used to plan for a profitable future in the cinema exhibition industry in South Africa because of the emphasis the technique places on the uncertainty inherent in the future and the degree of influence that external factors have on the future of this industry. Cinema exhibitors in South Africa have not sufficiently taken into consideration the drivers of cultural, social, economic, and technological change that will determine the relative place of cinema attendance in South Africa of tomorrow. The major recommendations are that cinemas should become more than just cinemas by evolving into multipurpose interactive public "meeting places" where watching films is but one of a range of leisure-time activities and that cinema exhibitors should fully embrace technological advances and the opportunities that they bring, and not view them as a threat.