Development of network theory approaches to analyse cause and effect relationships in complex integrated sugarcane supply and processing systems.
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Date
2013
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Abstract
Network theory has been widely and successfully used to model, analyse and visualise
complex systems. This study aimed to develop approaches to analyse complex integrated
sugarcane supply and processing systems. A literature review includes network theory,
complex systems, the Theory of constraints, indicator analysis and root cause analysis. The
cause-and-effect networks of four sugarcane milling areas in South Africa; viz. Eston,
Felixton, Komati and Umfolozi were developed, where the factors that negatively affected the
performance of the milling areas were represented by vertices, the relationships among the
factors by arcs and the strength of these relationships by weights. Three network theory based
analytical tools namely; (a) primary influence vertex analysis, (b) indicator vertex analysis
and (c) root cause vertex analysis were developed to analyse the networks. The results from
the analyses indicate variations in the numbers and strengths of primary influence factors,
problem indicator factors and root causes of problems between the four milling areas.
Rainfall, drought and high soil content in sugarcane were identified as the strongest primary
influences in the respective milling areas. High crush rate variability, low cutter productivity,
running behind allocation and increases in operating costs were identified as the strongest
indicators of poor performance in the respective milling areas. Rainfall was found to be the
most dominating root cause of poor performance in all the milling areas. Since the South
African integrated sugarcane production and processing system is complex, it is likely that the
unique approaches developed in this study can be used successfully to also analyse other
relatively complex systems. It is recommended that these approaches be tested within other
systems. The main contribution of this study is in the form of a relatively easy-to-use network
theory based comprehensive systems analyses tool. This analytical approach has, to the
author's knowledge, not been used in any agri-industrial application previously.
Description
Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2013.
Keywords
Sugarcane industry--South Africa., Sugarcane--Transportation--South Africa., Theory of constraints (Management), Theses--Agricultural engineering., Sugar factories--South Africa.